When it comes to the Premier League, you can pretty much divide your predictions into four categories - title challengers (two), clubs challenging for the Champions' League places (four), those set to finish around midway (about four or five) and those facing a relegation scrap (pretty much everybody else).
So let's start with the big question - Liverpool or Manchester City for the title this season? Well, City have got to slip up some time and Liverpool were desperately unlucky last season (only losing once all season and still finishing second is taking the rip frankly) so I'm gonna say that this time it'll be City who hit a fleeting patch of bad form somewhere that ultimately costs them by a point or two. But realistically, I think we all know this one could go either way.
Of the pack behind them, Tottenham should clinch third place without too much worry as they look the most stable out of this group of clubs by some distance. Chelsea did well to recover and snatch third place last time around but with Maurizio Sarri leaving over the summer and Frank Lampard coming in, I think they're unlikely to repeat the feat this time out. Lampard will doubtless be given time by the board but this season may be a learning curve for him which could open the door for Arsenal, fresh off a season of transition under Unai Emery, to sneak back into the top four if they can find the consistency that was their main downfall last time out.
Only at Manchester United could you get a manager winning his first nine games in charge only to have the pundits calling for his head five defeats later. I still think if the Reds show some persistence with Ole Gunnar Soljskaer then they should start rising up the table again but with chaos reigning behind the scenes at the moment (not least surrounding Paul Pogba's future), a sixth-place finish looks likely again.
Among the mid-table pack, Wolves did brilliantly to finish 7th last time out but with an added UEFA Cup campaign to worry about this season, you could forgive them for casting a nervous eye at what happened to Burnley last season. They should still manage a top half finish but there are likely to be a few clubs with less games to worry about poised to nudge past them, chiefly Everton whose "steady as she goes" approach under Marco Silva means they're usually there or thereabouts. Leicester were a club revitalised under Brendan Rodgers last time out and should comfortably grab a top half finish while West Ham could improve as well with Manuel Pellegrini now having a full season under his belt in East London despite the departure of Marko Arnautovic.
Watford finally seem to have achieved the stability that's been lacking at Vicarage Road recently and should manage a comfortable mid-table finish this time out while Burnley, facing a quieter season than last time without a European campaign to worry about, should be breathing a bit easier this season as well. From thereon downwards, the remaining eight clubs are the ones who are likely to be most worried about a relegation dogfight and as always in these situations, the first clubs you find yourselves looking at are the three promoted ones.
However, I'm going to stick my neck out and say that I think Norwich, Sheffield United and Aston Villa will all survive. The key is looking at how much low-hanging fruit (ie established Prem teams who look likely to struggle) there is and make sure that you pick up the maximum points from these games and this season there looks to be a few teams who fall into this category.
Looking at the three new boys, both the Blades and Villans come up having done a full overhaul of their squads and with managers (Chris Wilder and Dean Smith) getting their first taste of Premiership life. They'll be keen to avoid repeating what happened to Fulham last time out but Smith and Wilder are both good at getting their teams playing with a suitably blood-and-thunder approach and, as Huddersfield did a couple of years ago, might be in with a good shout of bludgeoning their way to safety. Norwich, with a side playing good football under Daniel Farke, could do even better although they've been comparatively quiet in the transfer market over the summer.
Southampton and Bournemouth could be forgiven for looking nervously over their shoulders at this situation. The Saints have been sailing perilously close to the bottom three in recent years but the appointment of Ralf Hasenhuttl last season did seem to stabilise them a bit and with a few new signings this season they may face less of a nail-biting experience this time around. Bournemouth, meanwhile, have been drifting backwards for a while and could be in trouble but I think they should just scrape home.
My tips for the bottom three then - Brighton had an atrocious end to last season winning just four games after the New Year and have changed managers with Graham Potter joining from Swansea in place of the departing Chris Hughton. Potter did well to transform a club in chaos into a solid young side at the Liberty Stadium but he's now facing a far bigger challenge at the Withdean Stadium and will need all his wits about him to guide the Seagulls to safety this time out.
Crystal Palace have managed mid-table safety over the last couple of seasons mainly through Roy Hodgson's ability to play the loan market well but with Aaron Wan-Bissaka gone to Manchester United and Wilfred Zaha likely to join him on the way out of Selhurst Park before the end of the transfer window, this season looks like being a much harder slog for the Eagles. If Hodgson can somehow persuade Zaha to stay then they've got a fighting chance of beating the drop but if, as looks likely, he moves on then it could be a long hard winter at Selhurst Park.
Finally, where do you even start with Newcastle? With Rafael Benitez's patience finally running out and the appointment of Steve Bruce (a man who's spent most of the last few years managing in the Championship) to replace him as manager going down like a cup of cold sick among the St James Park faithful not to mention three key players leaving and the continuing presence of the odious Mike Ashley as chairman, these are worrying times indeed on Tyneside. The Geordies' best bet for survival probably hinges on a takeover happening some time soon but given Ashley's reluctance to surrender control of the club, I wouldn't bet on it. Either way, a turbulent season and yet another sojourn in the Championship looks to be in store for them...
FINAL TABLE PREDICTION
1. Liverpool
2. Manchester City
3. Tottenham Hotspur
4. Arsenal
5. Chelsea
6. Manchester United
7. Everton
8. Leicester City
9. West Ham United
10. Wolverhampton Wanderers
11. Watford
12. Burnley
13. Southampton
14. Norwich City
15. Bournemouth
16. Aston Villa
17. Sheffield United
------------------------------
18. Brighton & Hove Albion
19. Crystal Palace
20. Newcastle United
Showing posts with label Football. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Football. Show all posts
Saturday, 3 August 2019
Friday, 2 August 2019
Championship Predictions 2019-20
The Championship, as I seem to find myself saying every year when I do this thing, is usually the most even of the four divisions and therefore notoriously difficult to predict.
Nevertheless, looking at the teams near the top last season, taking all factors into consideration including squad turnover, general form, how likely the relegated teams are to challenge and...oh look, I'm sorry but I'm just gonna say it - as much as it pains me to do so having grown up in the city and knowing how utterly unbearable their fans can be on the rare occasions their team enjoys success, I'm going for Leeds to win the division this year. With most of last season's side still intact and more crucially Marcelo Bielsa staying on for another year, they look just that bit stronger than the rest of the pack.
West Brom should be well placed to ensure they make it back to the Premiership at the second time of asking as well - Slaven Bilic looks like a decent managerial appointment and the Baggies ended last season strongly before eventually coming to grief against Aston Villa in the play-offs. Although the loss of Jay Rodriguez and Dwight Gayle could count against them, their strength last season was their mean defence and this should see them over the line.
Discount Neil Warnock and Cardiff at your peril though - as the veteran manager limbers up for what will allegedly be his final season, you suspect he'd like nothing better than to atone for last season's relegation by bouncing the Bluebirds straight back into the Prem. With a number of new signings and their better players by and large staying on, they should be well in with a shout of the top two but I think they may have to do it the hard way via the play-offs.
Bristol City and Nottingham Forest both missed out by an agonisingly close margin on the top six last season and should go one better this time out. The former have strengthened what was already a pretty effective team while the multi-millionaire board at the City Ground will be looking for some return on their investment after last season's disappointment.
For the final play-off place, take your pick between Derby or Fulham. The former's defeat in the play-off final was made all the more galling by the departure of manager Frank Lampard to Chelsea and most of the loan players they built last season's success on returning to their parent clubs. However, Philip Cocu looks an interesting appointment and if he can fill the gaps in the Rams' squad then another top six push isn't out of the question. Fulham, meanwhile, only really started playing after their relegation was confirmed last season and their late run led to caretaker boss Scott Parker being offered the job full time...and then losing his first game in charge 4-1 to Newcastle. Fulham have plenty of firepower up front but look weak defensively and I think this may ultimately see them just miss out on the top six.
Brentford could be in with an outside shot at the play-offs after a strong finish last season and the capture of midfield general Pontus Jansson from Leeds while Huddersfield will probably be wandering around like plane crash survivors after last season's relegation disaster. Nevertheless, Jan Siewert has added some decent looking Championship players to his side and they could sneak a play-off push if they get off to a good start. But it's a big if.
Middlesbrough were another to miss out on the play-offs after their form deserted them in the later stages of the season and with Jonathan Woodgate taking on his first managerial job and the summer's transfer business on Teesside being somewhat low-key, it's difficult to see them improving on last season's 8th place finish. Stoke, meanwhile, will be looking to rebound from last season's disappointing finish but it may take more than one season for Nathan Jones to stamp his mark on his goal-shy team.
Blackburn and Preston both finished comfortably in mid-table last time out and should do so again while Swansea and Sheffield Wednesday both go into the season having seen their managers poached by Prem clubs (Brighton taking Graham Potter from the Swans and Steve Bruce leaving the Owls for Newcastle), not to mention several of Swansea's key players from last season being poached by clubs in the division above. Both face a rebuilding job and most likely a mid-table finish.
QPR and Reading have both been down among the dead men for the last few seasons but may do a little better this time out. Mark Warburton is a manager with a good record in the Championship and with some useful signings should guide the Hoops towards a mid-table finish while Charlie Adam and Michael Morrison represent the sort of experience that the Royals desperately need.
Luton and Barnsley have both seen their squads raided following promotion from League One but should just about have enough firepower to keep the relegation dogfight at arm's length unless something bad happens. Of those more likely to struggle, Hull have had a quiet summer on the transfer market and could find their league position suffering accordingly while Charlton did well to get promoted via the play-offs last time out but with their off-field issues seemingly no nearer to resolution must know that they're in for a fight to stay up.
For my money though, the bottom three looks likely to consist of Millwall who sailed perilously close to the wind last time and despite a busy summer of transfers don't look significantly stronger this time out, Birmingham who've seen star striker Che Adams leave for Southampton and have replaced Garry Monk as manager with Pep Clotet, a man last seen being fired by Oxford in the division below, and Wigan who only just scraped home last time out and have had a worryingly quiet summer transfer-wise. But like I say, it's an even division this and all of the above should bear in mind that just a few wins can sometimes make the difference between bottom three and safely in mid-table in the Championship...
TABLE PREDICTION
1. Leeds
2. West Bromwich Albion
------------------------------
3. Cardiff City
4. Bristol City
5. Nottingham Forest
6. Derby County
------------------------------
7. Fulham
8. Brentford
9. Huddersfield Town
10. Middlesbrough
11. Stoke City
12. Blackburn Rovers
13. Preston North End
14. Swansea City
15. Sheffield Wednesday
16. QPR
17. Luton Town
18. Reading
19. Hull City
20. Barnsley
21. Charlton Athletic
------------------------------
22. Millwall
23. Birmingham City
24. Wigan Athletic
Nevertheless, looking at the teams near the top last season, taking all factors into consideration including squad turnover, general form, how likely the relegated teams are to challenge and...oh look, I'm sorry but I'm just gonna say it - as much as it pains me to do so having grown up in the city and knowing how utterly unbearable their fans can be on the rare occasions their team enjoys success, I'm going for Leeds to win the division this year. With most of last season's side still intact and more crucially Marcelo Bielsa staying on for another year, they look just that bit stronger than the rest of the pack.
West Brom should be well placed to ensure they make it back to the Premiership at the second time of asking as well - Slaven Bilic looks like a decent managerial appointment and the Baggies ended last season strongly before eventually coming to grief against Aston Villa in the play-offs. Although the loss of Jay Rodriguez and Dwight Gayle could count against them, their strength last season was their mean defence and this should see them over the line.
Discount Neil Warnock and Cardiff at your peril though - as the veteran manager limbers up for what will allegedly be his final season, you suspect he'd like nothing better than to atone for last season's relegation by bouncing the Bluebirds straight back into the Prem. With a number of new signings and their better players by and large staying on, they should be well in with a shout of the top two but I think they may have to do it the hard way via the play-offs.
Bristol City and Nottingham Forest both missed out by an agonisingly close margin on the top six last season and should go one better this time out. The former have strengthened what was already a pretty effective team while the multi-millionaire board at the City Ground will be looking for some return on their investment after last season's disappointment.
For the final play-off place, take your pick between Derby or Fulham. The former's defeat in the play-off final was made all the more galling by the departure of manager Frank Lampard to Chelsea and most of the loan players they built last season's success on returning to their parent clubs. However, Philip Cocu looks an interesting appointment and if he can fill the gaps in the Rams' squad then another top six push isn't out of the question. Fulham, meanwhile, only really started playing after their relegation was confirmed last season and their late run led to caretaker boss Scott Parker being offered the job full time...and then losing his first game in charge 4-1 to Newcastle. Fulham have plenty of firepower up front but look weak defensively and I think this may ultimately see them just miss out on the top six.
Brentford could be in with an outside shot at the play-offs after a strong finish last season and the capture of midfield general Pontus Jansson from Leeds while Huddersfield will probably be wandering around like plane crash survivors after last season's relegation disaster. Nevertheless, Jan Siewert has added some decent looking Championship players to his side and they could sneak a play-off push if they get off to a good start. But it's a big if.
Middlesbrough were another to miss out on the play-offs after their form deserted them in the later stages of the season and with Jonathan Woodgate taking on his first managerial job and the summer's transfer business on Teesside being somewhat low-key, it's difficult to see them improving on last season's 8th place finish. Stoke, meanwhile, will be looking to rebound from last season's disappointing finish but it may take more than one season for Nathan Jones to stamp his mark on his goal-shy team.
Blackburn and Preston both finished comfortably in mid-table last time out and should do so again while Swansea and Sheffield Wednesday both go into the season having seen their managers poached by Prem clubs (Brighton taking Graham Potter from the Swans and Steve Bruce leaving the Owls for Newcastle), not to mention several of Swansea's key players from last season being poached by clubs in the division above. Both face a rebuilding job and most likely a mid-table finish.
QPR and Reading have both been down among the dead men for the last few seasons but may do a little better this time out. Mark Warburton is a manager with a good record in the Championship and with some useful signings should guide the Hoops towards a mid-table finish while Charlie Adam and Michael Morrison represent the sort of experience that the Royals desperately need.
Luton and Barnsley have both seen their squads raided following promotion from League One but should just about have enough firepower to keep the relegation dogfight at arm's length unless something bad happens. Of those more likely to struggle, Hull have had a quiet summer on the transfer market and could find their league position suffering accordingly while Charlton did well to get promoted via the play-offs last time out but with their off-field issues seemingly no nearer to resolution must know that they're in for a fight to stay up.
For my money though, the bottom three looks likely to consist of Millwall who sailed perilously close to the wind last time and despite a busy summer of transfers don't look significantly stronger this time out, Birmingham who've seen star striker Che Adams leave for Southampton and have replaced Garry Monk as manager with Pep Clotet, a man last seen being fired by Oxford in the division below, and Wigan who only just scraped home last time out and have had a worryingly quiet summer transfer-wise. But like I say, it's an even division this and all of the above should bear in mind that just a few wins can sometimes make the difference between bottom three and safely in mid-table in the Championship...
TABLE PREDICTION
1. Leeds
2. West Bromwich Albion
------------------------------
3. Cardiff City
4. Bristol City
5. Nottingham Forest
6. Derby County
------------------------------
7. Fulham
8. Brentford
9. Huddersfield Town
10. Middlesbrough
11. Stoke City
12. Blackburn Rovers
13. Preston North End
14. Swansea City
15. Sheffield Wednesday
16. QPR
17. Luton Town
18. Reading
19. Hull City
20. Barnsley
21. Charlton Athletic
------------------------------
22. Millwall
23. Birmingham City
24. Wigan Athletic
Thursday, 1 August 2019
League One Predictions 2019-20
League One was a strange division last season, that's for sure. With a small group of teams gunning for the top six places and a good half of the division in a relegation scrap until the final couple of games, this is a difficult league to predict.
One team definitely stands head and shoulders above other contenders at the top of the table though and that's Portsmouth. Unlucky to lose out in the play-offs last season, Pompey have kept the nucleus of last season's squad intact and made a few signings to fill the odd gap and should be a good bet for the title this season.
Rotherham were unlucky to go straight back down from the Championship last time out but crucially they've kept the vast majority of the team that got promoted two years ago intact. If they can get off to a good start, they should be in with a good shout of automatic promotion and ensuring that the yo-yo is geared for another upward swing.
Sunderland seem to be most people's tip for the title for much the same reason as they were twelve months ago but they fell away from the automatic promotion chase badly at the end of last season before losing in the play-off final to Charlton and with the playing budget being cut to reflect a second season in the lower leagues, they may have to content themselves with another go in the end of season lottery. Of teams who could potentially join them there, Peterborough have strengthened their squad after narrowly missing the top six last time out and with a weaker division this time around should be a good shout to go one better this time. Any worries Doncaster may have had over losing manager Grant McCann, the mastermind behind last season's play-off push, to Hull should surely have been soothed by the arrival of Darren Moore, fresh from being very harshly dismissed by a play-off bound West Brom side last season, back at his hometown club. With Moore in charge, Donny should be good value for another push at the top six this time out. Finally, Blackpool could be a dark horse this season. With hated chairman Owen Oyston finally gone, a new manager in Simon Grayson who has got the club promoted out of this division before and some promising new signings, they could be a surprise play-off contender.
Others who could feature in the play-off race include Lincoln who won League Two at a canter last season and with Danny Cowley staying put, could well carry on their momentum into this one. For Ipswich, facing their first season at this level in nearly 60 years, a lot will depend on how they start after last season's relegation disaster. The potential for a top six push is there but with confidence flat on the floor, getting back to the Championship may be a two season job for Paul Lambert and the Tractor Boys. With Nigel Clough at the helm and a solid squad, there's no reason Burton couldn't challenge but it'll mean them gaining some more consistency than they had last season while Coventry's main obstacle is likely to be them currently being stuck in exile again (this time at Birmingham) after yet more arguments between their board and the Ricoh Arena's landlords. With all their troubles off the pitch, mid-table looks most likely for the Sky Blues this season.
Fleetwood showed intermittent promise under Joey Barton last season but with their manager currently facing a GBH case following a dust-up with his opposite number at Barnsley last season, their league position is likely to suffer. I doubt they'll be troubled by relegation but at the same time it looks unlikely that they'll mount a challenge. Shrewsbury suffered the mother of all promotion near-miss hangovers last time out but seem to have made a few canny signings which should see them move up to mid-table safety this time. Likewise Bristol Rovers and Oxford both finished last season strongly after shaky starts and should achieve safety a bit more comfortably this time around while Gillingham look set to repeat last season's mid-table finish.
Of those who might be feeling a bit less comfortable about their prospects, MK Dons and Tranmere should be okay as long as they can keep their good finishes to last season which saw them both get promoted from League Two going. Accrington started last season well but fell away alarmingly before a late run took them to safety and will know full well what they're up against this time around. Rochdale seem to be turning into last ditch survival specialists these days but with a weak lower end to the division this year they should have a fighting chance. Just down the road, Bolton are currently in an absolute mess off the field with the club in administration and starting with a 12-point penalty. With just a handful of players signed up, their only saving grace is that manager Phil Parkinson, the man who masterminded their promotion from this division three years ago, has decided to stick around and as long as he does, they may just have enough to scrape to safety.
Which is not something that can be said of their near neighbours Bury who also find themselves in administration and with a 12 point penalty to start the season with. With a squad currently full of triallists, an untried manager in former Middlesbrough and Watford striker Paul Wilkinson and the future of the club far from certain, it's going to take a miracle for the Shakers to avoid an instant return to League Two, assuming they even make it through the season without folding - truly these are desperate times. Also looking likely to be heading into the bottom flight are Southend who crashed and burned horrifically in the second half of last season. The replacement of manager Chris Powell with Kevin Bond didn't really stop the rot and the Shrimpers survived more by default through how bad other teams were - this time one feels they won't be so lucky. Likewise Wimbledon and Wycombe left it very late to secure safety last time out and with no notable arrivals, they're likely to face an uphill struggle once again this season.
FINAL TABLE
1. Portsmouth
2. Rotherham United
------------------------------
3. Sunderland
4. Peterborough United
5. Doncaster Rovers
6. Blackpool
------------------------------
7. Lincoln City
8. Ipswich Town
9. Burton Albion
10. Coventry City
11. Bristol Rovers
12. Oxford United
13. Shrewsbury Town
14. Gillingham
15. Fleetwood Town
16. MK Dons
17. Tranmere Rovers
18. Rochdale
19. Accrington Stanley
20. Bolton Wanderers
------------------------------
21. Wycombe Wanderers
22. Wimbledon
23. Southend United
24. Bury
One team definitely stands head and shoulders above other contenders at the top of the table though and that's Portsmouth. Unlucky to lose out in the play-offs last season, Pompey have kept the nucleus of last season's squad intact and made a few signings to fill the odd gap and should be a good bet for the title this season.
Rotherham were unlucky to go straight back down from the Championship last time out but crucially they've kept the vast majority of the team that got promoted two years ago intact. If they can get off to a good start, they should be in with a good shout of automatic promotion and ensuring that the yo-yo is geared for another upward swing.
Sunderland seem to be most people's tip for the title for much the same reason as they were twelve months ago but they fell away from the automatic promotion chase badly at the end of last season before losing in the play-off final to Charlton and with the playing budget being cut to reflect a second season in the lower leagues, they may have to content themselves with another go in the end of season lottery. Of teams who could potentially join them there, Peterborough have strengthened their squad after narrowly missing the top six last time out and with a weaker division this time around should be a good shout to go one better this time. Any worries Doncaster may have had over losing manager Grant McCann, the mastermind behind last season's play-off push, to Hull should surely have been soothed by the arrival of Darren Moore, fresh from being very harshly dismissed by a play-off bound West Brom side last season, back at his hometown club. With Moore in charge, Donny should be good value for another push at the top six this time out. Finally, Blackpool could be a dark horse this season. With hated chairman Owen Oyston finally gone, a new manager in Simon Grayson who has got the club promoted out of this division before and some promising new signings, they could be a surprise play-off contender.
Others who could feature in the play-off race include Lincoln who won League Two at a canter last season and with Danny Cowley staying put, could well carry on their momentum into this one. For Ipswich, facing their first season at this level in nearly 60 years, a lot will depend on how they start after last season's relegation disaster. The potential for a top six push is there but with confidence flat on the floor, getting back to the Championship may be a two season job for Paul Lambert and the Tractor Boys. With Nigel Clough at the helm and a solid squad, there's no reason Burton couldn't challenge but it'll mean them gaining some more consistency than they had last season while Coventry's main obstacle is likely to be them currently being stuck in exile again (this time at Birmingham) after yet more arguments between their board and the Ricoh Arena's landlords. With all their troubles off the pitch, mid-table looks most likely for the Sky Blues this season.
Fleetwood showed intermittent promise under Joey Barton last season but with their manager currently facing a GBH case following a dust-up with his opposite number at Barnsley last season, their league position is likely to suffer. I doubt they'll be troubled by relegation but at the same time it looks unlikely that they'll mount a challenge. Shrewsbury suffered the mother of all promotion near-miss hangovers last time out but seem to have made a few canny signings which should see them move up to mid-table safety this time. Likewise Bristol Rovers and Oxford both finished last season strongly after shaky starts and should achieve safety a bit more comfortably this time around while Gillingham look set to repeat last season's mid-table finish.
Of those who might be feeling a bit less comfortable about their prospects, MK Dons and Tranmere should be okay as long as they can keep their good finishes to last season which saw them both get promoted from League Two going. Accrington started last season well but fell away alarmingly before a late run took them to safety and will know full well what they're up against this time around. Rochdale seem to be turning into last ditch survival specialists these days but with a weak lower end to the division this year they should have a fighting chance. Just down the road, Bolton are currently in an absolute mess off the field with the club in administration and starting with a 12-point penalty. With just a handful of players signed up, their only saving grace is that manager Phil Parkinson, the man who masterminded their promotion from this division three years ago, has decided to stick around and as long as he does, they may just have enough to scrape to safety.
Which is not something that can be said of their near neighbours Bury who also find themselves in administration and with a 12 point penalty to start the season with. With a squad currently full of triallists, an untried manager in former Middlesbrough and Watford striker Paul Wilkinson and the future of the club far from certain, it's going to take a miracle for the Shakers to avoid an instant return to League Two, assuming they even make it through the season without folding - truly these are desperate times. Also looking likely to be heading into the bottom flight are Southend who crashed and burned horrifically in the second half of last season. The replacement of manager Chris Powell with Kevin Bond didn't really stop the rot and the Shrimpers survived more by default through how bad other teams were - this time one feels they won't be so lucky. Likewise Wimbledon and Wycombe left it very late to secure safety last time out and with no notable arrivals, they're likely to face an uphill struggle once again this season.
FINAL TABLE
1. Portsmouth
2. Rotherham United
------------------------------
3. Sunderland
4. Peterborough United
5. Doncaster Rovers
6. Blackpool
------------------------------
7. Lincoln City
8. Ipswich Town
9. Burton Albion
10. Coventry City
11. Bristol Rovers
12. Oxford United
13. Shrewsbury Town
14. Gillingham
15. Fleetwood Town
16. MK Dons
17. Tranmere Rovers
18. Rochdale
19. Accrington Stanley
20. Bolton Wanderers
------------------------------
21. Wycombe Wanderers
22. Wimbledon
23. Southend United
24. Bury
Wednesday, 31 July 2019
League Two Predictions 2019-20
As always at this time of year, I'm going to put my Mystic Mug hat on and do some predictions for the new football season. Starting with League Two today and with each of the divisions further up following between now and Saturday.
Anyway, League Two...given that my prediction for the title last season Notts County ended up leaving the division the other way, there's a good argument that this should all probably be taken with a pinch of salt. However, I'm going to say that Walsall will take the title this season. With a new manager in Darrell Clarke who's got promoted from this division with Bristol Rovers previously and a revitalised squad, they've got all the hallmarks of a team determined to make their stay in the basement division a short one.
Which also goes for the other three relegated clubs - Plymouth, Scunthorpe and Bradford have all done what they needed to do following relegation by bringing in managers with a track record of being promoted from this division before (Ryan Lowe with Plymouth, Paul Hurst with Scunthorpe and Gary Bowyer with Bradford) and have had the necessary clearout of the dead wood. I'm going to go with Plymouth and Scunny to take the other two promotion spots and City to be in the play-offs.
The arrival of four strong sides coming down is quite a rare thing and you can sense the disappointment among the clubs who challenged last time out and were probably hoping for a weaker division to go one better this time. Mansfield should really be up there again with Nicky Maynard, top scorer for Bury as they were promoted from this level last time out, looking a useful signing although the appointment of an inexperienced manager in John Dempster could potentially backfire on them. Exeter and Swindon have both strengthened after frustratingly narrow misses on the top 7 last time out and should go one better this time.
At the other end of the equation, Newport and Forest Green both did very well to make the play-offs last time out but the perennial risk of coming from nowhere in the promotion race only to fall at the final hurdle is that your squad inevitably gets raided by clubs in higher divisions as both have found out to their cost. Don't discount either of them entirely but I think they may fall just short this time around.
Salford were promoted into the League with quite some fanfare but as others who've used their big budget to go up from the Conference before them have found out, League Two is a different game with the transfer window system meaning you can't just use a "quick fix" solution if you suddenly pick up injuries. Expect them to finish upper mid-table then push on for the Top 7 in 2020-21. Leyton Orient, who came up alongside them, had their summer thrown into disarray by the tragic sudden passing of Justin Edinburgh, the architect of their renaissance, and a lot will depend on how they respond to that. They could be an outside shout for promotion but I'm more inclined to go with mid-table for them.
Colchester and Carlisle both missed out narrowly last time out but with no real eye-catching signings at either and a stronger division this year, I think both have to be put down as outsiders. Ditto Northampton who pulled round after the appointment of Keith Curle as manager mid-season but look a little short of quality to make the play-offs. Stevenage did well to finish 10th last time out but with one of the smallest budgets in the division, it's difficult to see them progressing much beyond that. A little further down, Grimsby don't give the impression of being likely to deviate much from last season's mid-table finish while Port Vale have at least brought in a few decent looking signings that should steer them a bit further away from the drop zone this time out.
Looking at likely strugglers, there are certain clubs who you can almost certainly predict will be down at the wrong end of the table - Cheltenham, Morecambe and Crawley always seem to finish around the bottom third of this division and with no particularly eye-catching arrivals at any of them, the coming season looks set to bring more of the same. Crewe did well to make the top half last season but with a number of their better players picked off by bigger clubs they're likely to find it much harder going this time out while the managerial circus at Oldham with incoming boss Laurent Banide being their fourth boss in 12 months, suggests a club badly needing to stabilise if it isn't to end up in a relegation dogfight.
Without wanting to sound too lazy though, the two clubs who finished just above the relegation places last time out look to be the two most likely to go through the trapdoor this time. Cambridge had an awful season just gone and with several first team mainstays departing and one of the smallest squads in the division, Colin Calderwood is going to have to work miracles to keep them afloat this time around. Meanwhile, Sol Campbell did brilliantly to keep Macclesfield in the division after taking over at Moss Rose mid-season but with the club in dire financial straights and the almost farcical situation of the players suing the board for unpaid wages, he's likely to find it even harder this time out. If the Silkmen can hold on to their highly rated manager then they've a fighting chance of survival but if, as looks probable, he gets tempted away by a larger team then it's very likely to spell doom for them.
FINAL TABLE PREDICTION
1. Walsall
2. Scunthorpe United
3. Plymouth Argyle
------------------------------
4. Bradford City
5. Mansfield Town
6. Exeter City
7. Swindon Town
------------------------------
8. Colchester United
9. Forest Green Rovers
10. Carlisle United
11. Salford City
12. Northampton Town
13. Newport County
14. Leyton Orient
15. Stevenage
16. Grimsby Town
17. Port Vale
18. Crewe Alexandra
19. Cheltenham Town
20. Oldham Athletic
21. Morecambe
22. Crawley Town
------------------------------
23. Cambridge United
24. Macclesfield Town
Anyway, League Two...given that my prediction for the title last season Notts County ended up leaving the division the other way, there's a good argument that this should all probably be taken with a pinch of salt. However, I'm going to say that Walsall will take the title this season. With a new manager in Darrell Clarke who's got promoted from this division with Bristol Rovers previously and a revitalised squad, they've got all the hallmarks of a team determined to make their stay in the basement division a short one.
Which also goes for the other three relegated clubs - Plymouth, Scunthorpe and Bradford have all done what they needed to do following relegation by bringing in managers with a track record of being promoted from this division before (Ryan Lowe with Plymouth, Paul Hurst with Scunthorpe and Gary Bowyer with Bradford) and have had the necessary clearout of the dead wood. I'm going to go with Plymouth and Scunny to take the other two promotion spots and City to be in the play-offs.
The arrival of four strong sides coming down is quite a rare thing and you can sense the disappointment among the clubs who challenged last time out and were probably hoping for a weaker division to go one better this time. Mansfield should really be up there again with Nicky Maynard, top scorer for Bury as they were promoted from this level last time out, looking a useful signing although the appointment of an inexperienced manager in John Dempster could potentially backfire on them. Exeter and Swindon have both strengthened after frustratingly narrow misses on the top 7 last time out and should go one better this time.
At the other end of the equation, Newport and Forest Green both did very well to make the play-offs last time out but the perennial risk of coming from nowhere in the promotion race only to fall at the final hurdle is that your squad inevitably gets raided by clubs in higher divisions as both have found out to their cost. Don't discount either of them entirely but I think they may fall just short this time around.
Salford were promoted into the League with quite some fanfare but as others who've used their big budget to go up from the Conference before them have found out, League Two is a different game with the transfer window system meaning you can't just use a "quick fix" solution if you suddenly pick up injuries. Expect them to finish upper mid-table then push on for the Top 7 in 2020-21. Leyton Orient, who came up alongside them, had their summer thrown into disarray by the tragic sudden passing of Justin Edinburgh, the architect of their renaissance, and a lot will depend on how they respond to that. They could be an outside shout for promotion but I'm more inclined to go with mid-table for them.
Colchester and Carlisle both missed out narrowly last time out but with no real eye-catching signings at either and a stronger division this year, I think both have to be put down as outsiders. Ditto Northampton who pulled round after the appointment of Keith Curle as manager mid-season but look a little short of quality to make the play-offs. Stevenage did well to finish 10th last time out but with one of the smallest budgets in the division, it's difficult to see them progressing much beyond that. A little further down, Grimsby don't give the impression of being likely to deviate much from last season's mid-table finish while Port Vale have at least brought in a few decent looking signings that should steer them a bit further away from the drop zone this time out.
Looking at likely strugglers, there are certain clubs who you can almost certainly predict will be down at the wrong end of the table - Cheltenham, Morecambe and Crawley always seem to finish around the bottom third of this division and with no particularly eye-catching arrivals at any of them, the coming season looks set to bring more of the same. Crewe did well to make the top half last season but with a number of their better players picked off by bigger clubs they're likely to find it much harder going this time out while the managerial circus at Oldham with incoming boss Laurent Banide being their fourth boss in 12 months, suggests a club badly needing to stabilise if it isn't to end up in a relegation dogfight.
Without wanting to sound too lazy though, the two clubs who finished just above the relegation places last time out look to be the two most likely to go through the trapdoor this time. Cambridge had an awful season just gone and with several first team mainstays departing and one of the smallest squads in the division, Colin Calderwood is going to have to work miracles to keep them afloat this time around. Meanwhile, Sol Campbell did brilliantly to keep Macclesfield in the division after taking over at Moss Rose mid-season but with the club in dire financial straights and the almost farcical situation of the players suing the board for unpaid wages, he's likely to find it even harder this time out. If the Silkmen can hold on to their highly rated manager then they've a fighting chance of survival but if, as looks probable, he gets tempted away by a larger team then it's very likely to spell doom for them.
FINAL TABLE PREDICTION
1. Walsall
2. Scunthorpe United
3. Plymouth Argyle
------------------------------
4. Bradford City
5. Mansfield Town
6. Exeter City
7. Swindon Town
------------------------------
8. Colchester United
9. Forest Green Rovers
10. Carlisle United
11. Salford City
12. Northampton Town
13. Newport County
14. Leyton Orient
15. Stevenage
16. Grimsby Town
17. Port Vale
18. Crewe Alexandra
19. Cheltenham Town
20. Oldham Athletic
21. Morecambe
22. Crawley Town
------------------------------
23. Cambridge United
24. Macclesfield Town
Sunday, 5 August 2018
Premiership Predictions 2018-19
It'd be nice to be able to predict someone different to win the Premiership this year but Manchester City finished so far ahead of the pack last time out that it's difficult to see this season being any different. City on form are a truly terrifying prospect and the rest of the division's best hope is probably that they suffer some sort of injury crisis or fatigue from their Champions' League campaign.
If any team is to emerge from the pack to challenge then my money would be on Liverpool. Cursed with inconsistency striking at inopportune moments last year, Jurgen Klopp has used the summer transfer window to address the main shortfalls in his side and if anyone is likely to be able to keep pace with Man City this year, it's probably them.
Manchester United did well to finish second last year despite their off-field problems but with question marks continuing to hang over Jose Mourinho's future and a mysterious lack of summer signings, their position there looks vulnerable. I still fancy them to make the top three as all of the other likely challengers are facing issues of their own but it could be an interesting season at Old Trafford.
Arsenal go into the new season in the unusual position of having a new man in charge with Unai Emery taking over the hotseat following Arsene Wenger's decision to step down after 22 years. A new broom may be just what the Gunners need and they should mount a much stronger challenge for the European places this time out.
Across North London, Tottenham's main worry for this season will be player fatigue with several of their first team taking part in England's World Cup campaign. A top four finish for them is likely to depend on Mauricio Pocchettino being able to do a very delicate balancing act with his squad.
Just what is going on at Chelsea at the moment? With Antonio Conte being sacked during the first week of pre-season training to be replaced by Maurizio Sarri, no new faces in the squad and rumours of Roman Abramovich's financial support potentially being pulled in the wake of his visa problems, these are dark times at Stamford Bridge. Although I'm predicting a 6th-place finish for them, there's every chance it could be even worse if things start to fall apart.
After the turbulence of last season, Everton now have a relatively safe pair of hands in charge in the form of Marco Silva and with some useful looking signings could be in with a shout of deposing Chelsea in the Top 6 if things go to plan. Ditto Wolves who have a budget to match most of the Prem clubs outside the Top 6 and could well be a surprise package. Burnley did amazingly well to storm to a 7th-place finish last season but the added distraction of a UEFA Cup campaign this year means that it's unlikely they'll repeat it. Sean Dyche has assembled a good solid squad though and they should still be capable of finishing in the top half.
Newcastle have consolidated well under Rafa Benitez since returning to the top flight and, provided he sticks around in the wake of his seemingly perpetual squabbles with Mike Ashley, should be capable of sneaking up another place or two this season. With West Ham, it all depends on whether Dr Jekyll or Mr Hyde turns up at the Olympic Stadium this season. Manuel Pellegrini looks a good appointment as manager and the Hammers have been spending big but with fan unrest off the field continuning to dog them, they'll need a good start to hopefully get the supporters back onside.
Bournemouth are unlikely to breach the top half but should stay reasonably clear of the relegation dogfight while Brighton and Huddersfield, having survived that all important first season in the Prem, will be looking to hopefully kick on and edge a couple of places further away from danger this time out. Speaking of Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde, Southampton's appointment of Mark Hughes as manager could go either way but his first priority will be ensuring that they don't end up getting sucked into a relegation dogfight again.
The above four could all potentially struggle this season but looking at the teams who appear to be in real danger, Watford had a poor run-in last season but in a break from my usual tradition of tipping them to be relegated on this blog I'm going to predict that they'll scrape home to safety this year. Just. In more serious danger are Cardiff and Fulham, both promoted last season and almost certainly under no illusions over the size of the task facing them. Cardiff will have to rely on the legendary Neil Warnock team spirit to batter their way to safety while Fulham have at least managed to sign Alexander Mitrovic, the man who engineered their late run which took them all the way to a play-off final victory, on a permanent contract from Newcastle but still have a squad which looks short on Premiership quality. Both will unquestionably give it a valiant go but I think they may fall just short.
Which leaves me to predict the third relegation spot as a straight shootout between Crystal Palace and Leicester. Every year there always seems to be one team who go from wobbling slightly during the previous year's run-in to plummeting out of the division altogether and both the Eagles and Foxes look like potential candidates this year. Palace did well to power their way to mid-table with a late run but with a lot of the loan signings like Ruben Loftus-Cheek who were behind that form gone and a worrying lack of new signings, Roy Hodgson is going to have his hands full to engineer a repeat and will be desperately hoping that the Eagles can hang on to Wilfried Zaha and his goals. Leicester's 10th-place finish last season meanwhile, masked a team who never really got out of first gear even after Claude Puel replaced Craig Shakespeare as manager. With the departure of Riyad Mahrez leaving Jamie Vardy looking even more isolated up front, the season ahead could finally see the Foxes coming undone.
FINAL TABLE
1. Manchester City
2. Liverpool
3. Manchester United
4. Arsenal
5. Tottenham Hotspur
6. Chelsea
7. Everton
8. Wolverhampton Wanderers
9. Burnley
10. Newcastle United
11. West Ham United
12. Brighton & Hove Albion
13. Bournemouth
14. Southampton
15. Huddersfield Town
16. Watford
17. Crystal Palace
-------------------
18. Leicester City
19. Fulham
20. Cardiff City
If any team is to emerge from the pack to challenge then my money would be on Liverpool. Cursed with inconsistency striking at inopportune moments last year, Jurgen Klopp has used the summer transfer window to address the main shortfalls in his side and if anyone is likely to be able to keep pace with Man City this year, it's probably them.
Manchester United did well to finish second last year despite their off-field problems but with question marks continuing to hang over Jose Mourinho's future and a mysterious lack of summer signings, their position there looks vulnerable. I still fancy them to make the top three as all of the other likely challengers are facing issues of their own but it could be an interesting season at Old Trafford.
Arsenal go into the new season in the unusual position of having a new man in charge with Unai Emery taking over the hotseat following Arsene Wenger's decision to step down after 22 years. A new broom may be just what the Gunners need and they should mount a much stronger challenge for the European places this time out.
Across North London, Tottenham's main worry for this season will be player fatigue with several of their first team taking part in England's World Cup campaign. A top four finish for them is likely to depend on Mauricio Pocchettino being able to do a very delicate balancing act with his squad.
Just what is going on at Chelsea at the moment? With Antonio Conte being sacked during the first week of pre-season training to be replaced by Maurizio Sarri, no new faces in the squad and rumours of Roman Abramovich's financial support potentially being pulled in the wake of his visa problems, these are dark times at Stamford Bridge. Although I'm predicting a 6th-place finish for them, there's every chance it could be even worse if things start to fall apart.
After the turbulence of last season, Everton now have a relatively safe pair of hands in charge in the form of Marco Silva and with some useful looking signings could be in with a shout of deposing Chelsea in the Top 6 if things go to plan. Ditto Wolves who have a budget to match most of the Prem clubs outside the Top 6 and could well be a surprise package. Burnley did amazingly well to storm to a 7th-place finish last season but the added distraction of a UEFA Cup campaign this year means that it's unlikely they'll repeat it. Sean Dyche has assembled a good solid squad though and they should still be capable of finishing in the top half.
Newcastle have consolidated well under Rafa Benitez since returning to the top flight and, provided he sticks around in the wake of his seemingly perpetual squabbles with Mike Ashley, should be capable of sneaking up another place or two this season. With West Ham, it all depends on whether Dr Jekyll or Mr Hyde turns up at the Olympic Stadium this season. Manuel Pellegrini looks a good appointment as manager and the Hammers have been spending big but with fan unrest off the field continuning to dog them, they'll need a good start to hopefully get the supporters back onside.
Bournemouth are unlikely to breach the top half but should stay reasonably clear of the relegation dogfight while Brighton and Huddersfield, having survived that all important first season in the Prem, will be looking to hopefully kick on and edge a couple of places further away from danger this time out. Speaking of Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde, Southampton's appointment of Mark Hughes as manager could go either way but his first priority will be ensuring that they don't end up getting sucked into a relegation dogfight again.
The above four could all potentially struggle this season but looking at the teams who appear to be in real danger, Watford had a poor run-in last season but in a break from my usual tradition of tipping them to be relegated on this blog I'm going to predict that they'll scrape home to safety this year. Just. In more serious danger are Cardiff and Fulham, both promoted last season and almost certainly under no illusions over the size of the task facing them. Cardiff will have to rely on the legendary Neil Warnock team spirit to batter their way to safety while Fulham have at least managed to sign Alexander Mitrovic, the man who engineered their late run which took them all the way to a play-off final victory, on a permanent contract from Newcastle but still have a squad which looks short on Premiership quality. Both will unquestionably give it a valiant go but I think they may fall just short.
Which leaves me to predict the third relegation spot as a straight shootout between Crystal Palace and Leicester. Every year there always seems to be one team who go from wobbling slightly during the previous year's run-in to plummeting out of the division altogether and both the Eagles and Foxes look like potential candidates this year. Palace did well to power their way to mid-table with a late run but with a lot of the loan signings like Ruben Loftus-Cheek who were behind that form gone and a worrying lack of new signings, Roy Hodgson is going to have his hands full to engineer a repeat and will be desperately hoping that the Eagles can hang on to Wilfried Zaha and his goals. Leicester's 10th-place finish last season meanwhile, masked a team who never really got out of first gear even after Claude Puel replaced Craig Shakespeare as manager. With the departure of Riyad Mahrez leaving Jamie Vardy looking even more isolated up front, the season ahead could finally see the Foxes coming undone.
FINAL TABLE
1. Manchester City
2. Liverpool
3. Manchester United
4. Arsenal
5. Tottenham Hotspur
6. Chelsea
7. Everton
8. Wolverhampton Wanderers
9. Burnley
10. Newcastle United
11. West Ham United
12. Brighton & Hove Albion
13. Bournemouth
14. Southampton
15. Huddersfield Town
16. Watford
17. Crystal Palace
-------------------
18. Leicester City
19. Fulham
20. Cardiff City
Friday, 3 August 2018
Championship Predictions 2018-19
The Championship is an interesting one this season with several teams looking capable of mounting a promotion push to the promised land of the Premiership. Although it's a cliche to say that bouncing back to the top flight after relegation seems to be something that's getting tougher year upon year, there's definitely some truth as none of the relegated sides in 2017 managed to make it back at the first attempt with Sunderland falling straight through to League One and Hull very nearly joining them.
Nevertheless, the omens look good for West Brom this season. Relegated, ironically, as one of the form sides in the Premiership, their ability to convince Darren Moore (the man behind their late season revival) to take on the manager's job full time was a sound one and he's quickly moved to plug the gaps left by the departures they've suffered in the wake of relegation. With team spirit on the up, there's no reason the Baggies can't bounce straight back this season.
Behind them, the picture gets a bit murkier. My pick for the runners-up spot is Middlesbrough who powered their way into the play-offs with a late run under Tony Pulis last season only to lose to Aston Villa in the semi-finals. It's a close one to call but I think Boro may just shade it into second spot in the table although Pulis must know that the price of failure will be high if he doesn't deliver this season.
The arrival of Frank Lampard at Derby, who also came unstuck in the play-off semis last season and have kept the majority of that squad intact, should put them in the hunt if all goes to plan (though again, the potential for this to go haywire is equally plausible) while their East Midlands near neighbours Nottingham Forest have new owners and have been spending big which, as we found out with Wolves last season, has to put them up there as potential contenders.
Following on from last season's relegation, Stoke have done well to keep their squad from last season intact but the flip side to this is that new manager Gary Rowett will need to quickly inject the confidence that the team badly lacked last season. The Potters should be there or thereabouts but a good start is vital for them if they're to challenge. Finally, my outside bet for the top six is Millwall who finished last season like the proverbial house on fire and only just missed out on the play-offs. If they can keep that momentum ticking, they should go one better this season.
There's several other clubs with an outside shot of the play-offs - after losing in the play-off final to Fulham, you'd expect Aston Villa to be chomping at the bit to go one better but with financial problems resulting in a change of ownership and player departures plus uncertainty over manager Steve Bruce's future they may find themselves getting edged out of the top six this time around. Leeds have made an ambitious managerial appointment in former Argentina coach Marcelo Bielsa but it's the sort of appointment that could very easily go either way. If (and it's a big if) Bielsa manages to inject some much-needed stability at Elland Road then the play-offs are a possibility.
There's a few teams who fall into the category of "potential play-off contenders if the stars align" - both Sheffield United and Sheffield Wednesday fleetingly showed what they were capable of last season but will need a bit more consistency this time out as will Norwich. Bristol City, Preston and Brentford have all made enough shrewd looking signings to fall into the dark horse category but will need a bit of luck to make the top six.
Of the three promoted clubs, Blackburn look the best placed to consolidate here with a decent squad that knows how to work together as a unit. Wigan and Rotherham may find the going a little bit tougher but if they can keep their promotion momentum going, they should both scrape enough to survive. You get the feeling that Swansea, back in the Championship after eight years in the Prem, aren't going to like this division much. With their better players picked off by top flight clubs and fan unrest off the field, they'll need to hope that new manager Graham Potter, fresh from guiding Ostersunds on their memorable European adventure, can hit the ground running.
QPR seem to be perennially making up the mid-table numbers in the Championship these days and there's no real signs that this season will be any different although Steve McClaren will feel he has a point to prove after a few years of underachievement at various clubs. Ipswich will be hoping meanwhile that new manager Paul Hurst, fresh from organising Shrewsbury's promotion near-miss in League One last season, can bring some freshness to a side that had gone very stale under his predecessor Mick McCarthy. Bolton snuck home late in the day last season and for the second summer running have been playing the free transfer market to rebuild their squad. However, Phil Parkinson is a canny hand at this and Wanderers should have enough to survive again.
Looking at my three picks for relegation then, Birmingham were already struggling last season and have now been hit with a transfer embargo to boot. Garry Monk will need to have all his wits about him to keep the Blues' heads above water in the coming campaign. Likewise Reading drifted backwards alarmingly last season and badly need to turn things around early on to avoid another season of struggle. Finally, Hull are facing fan unrest off the field and a team that only just scraped survival last season on it which has now been weakened further by the departures of several key players to trim the wage bill. It's weird to think that they were celebrating promotion to the Premiership just two years ago - if they don't turn things around quickly this time out then they may be facing an unwanted trip into the lower leagues this season.
FINAL TABLE
1. West Bromwich Albion
2. Middlesbrough
-------------------
3. Derby County
4. Stoke City
5. Nottingham Forest
6. Millwall
-------------------
7. Aston Villa
8. Leeds United
9. Sheffield United
10. Bristol City
11. Sheffield Wednesday
12. Norwich City
13. Brentford
14. Preston North End
15. Blackburn Rovers
16. Swansea City
17. QPR
18. Ipswich Town
19. Wigan Athletic
20. Bolton Wanderers
21. Rotherham United
-------------------
22. Reading
23. Hull City
24. Birmingham City
Nevertheless, the omens look good for West Brom this season. Relegated, ironically, as one of the form sides in the Premiership, their ability to convince Darren Moore (the man behind their late season revival) to take on the manager's job full time was a sound one and he's quickly moved to plug the gaps left by the departures they've suffered in the wake of relegation. With team spirit on the up, there's no reason the Baggies can't bounce straight back this season.
Behind them, the picture gets a bit murkier. My pick for the runners-up spot is Middlesbrough who powered their way into the play-offs with a late run under Tony Pulis last season only to lose to Aston Villa in the semi-finals. It's a close one to call but I think Boro may just shade it into second spot in the table although Pulis must know that the price of failure will be high if he doesn't deliver this season.
The arrival of Frank Lampard at Derby, who also came unstuck in the play-off semis last season and have kept the majority of that squad intact, should put them in the hunt if all goes to plan (though again, the potential for this to go haywire is equally plausible) while their East Midlands near neighbours Nottingham Forest have new owners and have been spending big which, as we found out with Wolves last season, has to put them up there as potential contenders.
Following on from last season's relegation, Stoke have done well to keep their squad from last season intact but the flip side to this is that new manager Gary Rowett will need to quickly inject the confidence that the team badly lacked last season. The Potters should be there or thereabouts but a good start is vital for them if they're to challenge. Finally, my outside bet for the top six is Millwall who finished last season like the proverbial house on fire and only just missed out on the play-offs. If they can keep that momentum ticking, they should go one better this season.
There's several other clubs with an outside shot of the play-offs - after losing in the play-off final to Fulham, you'd expect Aston Villa to be chomping at the bit to go one better but with financial problems resulting in a change of ownership and player departures plus uncertainty over manager Steve Bruce's future they may find themselves getting edged out of the top six this time around. Leeds have made an ambitious managerial appointment in former Argentina coach Marcelo Bielsa but it's the sort of appointment that could very easily go either way. If (and it's a big if) Bielsa manages to inject some much-needed stability at Elland Road then the play-offs are a possibility.
There's a few teams who fall into the category of "potential play-off contenders if the stars align" - both Sheffield United and Sheffield Wednesday fleetingly showed what they were capable of last season but will need a bit more consistency this time out as will Norwich. Bristol City, Preston and Brentford have all made enough shrewd looking signings to fall into the dark horse category but will need a bit of luck to make the top six.
Of the three promoted clubs, Blackburn look the best placed to consolidate here with a decent squad that knows how to work together as a unit. Wigan and Rotherham may find the going a little bit tougher but if they can keep their promotion momentum going, they should both scrape enough to survive. You get the feeling that Swansea, back in the Championship after eight years in the Prem, aren't going to like this division much. With their better players picked off by top flight clubs and fan unrest off the field, they'll need to hope that new manager Graham Potter, fresh from guiding Ostersunds on their memorable European adventure, can hit the ground running.
QPR seem to be perennially making up the mid-table numbers in the Championship these days and there's no real signs that this season will be any different although Steve McClaren will feel he has a point to prove after a few years of underachievement at various clubs. Ipswich will be hoping meanwhile that new manager Paul Hurst, fresh from organising Shrewsbury's promotion near-miss in League One last season, can bring some freshness to a side that had gone very stale under his predecessor Mick McCarthy. Bolton snuck home late in the day last season and for the second summer running have been playing the free transfer market to rebuild their squad. However, Phil Parkinson is a canny hand at this and Wanderers should have enough to survive again.
Looking at my three picks for relegation then, Birmingham were already struggling last season and have now been hit with a transfer embargo to boot. Garry Monk will need to have all his wits about him to keep the Blues' heads above water in the coming campaign. Likewise Reading drifted backwards alarmingly last season and badly need to turn things around early on to avoid another season of struggle. Finally, Hull are facing fan unrest off the field and a team that only just scraped survival last season on it which has now been weakened further by the departures of several key players to trim the wage bill. It's weird to think that they were celebrating promotion to the Premiership just two years ago - if they don't turn things around quickly this time out then they may be facing an unwanted trip into the lower leagues this season.
FINAL TABLE
1. West Bromwich Albion
2. Middlesbrough
-------------------
3. Derby County
4. Stoke City
5. Nottingham Forest
6. Millwall
-------------------
7. Aston Villa
8. Leeds United
9. Sheffield United
10. Bristol City
11. Sheffield Wednesday
12. Norwich City
13. Brentford
14. Preston North End
15. Blackburn Rovers
16. Swansea City
17. QPR
18. Ipswich Town
19. Wigan Athletic
20. Bolton Wanderers
21. Rotherham United
-------------------
22. Reading
23. Hull City
24. Birmingham City
Thursday, 2 August 2018
League One Predictions 2018-19
League One is a difficult one to call this year with no team really standing out as being an obvious choice for promotion.
I suppose the obvious one to go for would be Sunderland who are really too big to be down at this level theoretically but as plenty before them have discovered, size is no guarantee of success at this level and with a manager untried in the English game in Jack Ross and most of this summer's incoming transfer business being based around freebies, it could very easily go wrong for them. Nevertheless, I'm going to tip them for the title just because there aren't any other teams who leap out as obvious choices. Lazy reason I know...
Looking at the other relegated sides, Burton or Barnsley could realistically sneak back up to the Championship at the first attempt - the former were relegated despite a good late run which very nearly took them to safety and have a manager in Nigel Clough with a good track record of getting out of this division and the latter have had a clearout following their demise last season and if the new signings gel quickly they should be up there. My choice for the other automatic promotion spot is going to be Scunthorpe though who powered into the top six on the back of a good late run last season and have kept the majority of their squad intact. With the division looking a bit weaker this year, the omens could be good for the Iron
Of the other losing play-off teams, Shrewsbury's shock run to third in the table unfortunately attracted the attention of clubs with bigger money and they've lost not only manager Paul Hurst to Ipswich but also several key squad players as well meaning I can't see them challenging this time out. Charlton could potentially challenge but with no new manager still in place (Lee Bowyer is currently doing the job on a caretaker basis while the takeover saga continues to rumble on at the Valley), I think the play-offs again may be the best they can hope for unless the fiasco off the field is sorted out quickly.
Looking at dark horses, Portsmouth only just missed the play-offs last season and a weaker division this time out could well see Pompey going one better this time out while Southend were a team transformed under Chris Powell and could be a good outside shot for a top six place. Peterborough always seem to be thereabouts rather than there but if they can finally find the consistency they've been lacking the last couple of years then they could sneak a top six place. Luton looked impressive during their promotion from League Two last season and will be looking to kick on this time out while Karl Robinson at Oxford will be looking to rebuild his reputation after a lacklustre stint at Charlton last season. The U's have made some promising signings and could be dark horses while Coventry are the sort of side who really should be challenging due to their size but may be happy to settle for mid-table consolidation after a bruising promotion campaign from the bottom flight last season.
For clubs like Doncaster and Plymouth, their resources mean that the potential is always there for a promotion push if they can get the momentum going but it very much depends on the stars aligning the way they did for Shrewsbury last season. Fleetwood are the great unknown quantity of this division with the intelligent but temperamental Joey Barton getting his first shot at management with the Lancastrians. This is one I could see going either way - if Barton takes to management well (and Ched Evans finally rediscovers the goalscoring touch that's pretty much deserted him in recent years) then they could be an outside bet for the play-offs but if his temper gets the better of him, they could struggle.
Bristol Rovers have sat comfortably in mid-table since returning to the third tier a couple of years ago and there's no reason to suggest this season won't be more of the same while Bradford's promotion push fell apart alarmingly after the new year and the appointment of Simon Grayson as manager did little to stop the rot. Grayson has now gone with the inexperienced Michael Collins succeeding him in the manager's chair and top scorer Charlie Wyke leaving for Sunderland - a good start is vital here or City could end up struggling.
Other potential strugglers include Accrington and Wycombe, both of whom will be hoping the team spirit that saw them get promotion from League Two last season will help them stay afloat this time out and Gillingham who've been slowly creeping nearer and nearer to the trapdoor in recent years.
My tips for the drop though are Blackpool, who may find themselves victims of a tougher looking lower half of the table this year, Rochdale who only just sneaked home at the death last time out and will do well to do so again plus Wimbledon and Walsall who were both in a dogfight last season and have seen their squads raided by bigger clubs over the summer. A good start is essential for all of them if they hope to survive this season.
FINAL TABLE
1. Sunderland
2. Scunthorpe United
-------------------
3. Burton Albion
4. Barnsley
5. Portsmouth
6. Southend United
-------------------
7. Charlton Athletic
8. Peterborough United
9. Luton Town
10. Oxford United
11. Coventry City
12. Plymouth Argyle
13. Doncaster Rovers
14. Shrewsbury Town
15. Fleetwood Town
16. Bristol Rovers
17. Bradford City
18. Accrington Stanley
19. Gillingham
20. Wycombe Wanderers
-------------------
21. Blackpool
22. Rochdale
23. Wimbledon
24. Walsall
I suppose the obvious one to go for would be Sunderland who are really too big to be down at this level theoretically but as plenty before them have discovered, size is no guarantee of success at this level and with a manager untried in the English game in Jack Ross and most of this summer's incoming transfer business being based around freebies, it could very easily go wrong for them. Nevertheless, I'm going to tip them for the title just because there aren't any other teams who leap out as obvious choices. Lazy reason I know...
Looking at the other relegated sides, Burton or Barnsley could realistically sneak back up to the Championship at the first attempt - the former were relegated despite a good late run which very nearly took them to safety and have a manager in Nigel Clough with a good track record of getting out of this division and the latter have had a clearout following their demise last season and if the new signings gel quickly they should be up there. My choice for the other automatic promotion spot is going to be Scunthorpe though who powered into the top six on the back of a good late run last season and have kept the majority of their squad intact. With the division looking a bit weaker this year, the omens could be good for the Iron
Of the other losing play-off teams, Shrewsbury's shock run to third in the table unfortunately attracted the attention of clubs with bigger money and they've lost not only manager Paul Hurst to Ipswich but also several key squad players as well meaning I can't see them challenging this time out. Charlton could potentially challenge but with no new manager still in place (Lee Bowyer is currently doing the job on a caretaker basis while the takeover saga continues to rumble on at the Valley), I think the play-offs again may be the best they can hope for unless the fiasco off the field is sorted out quickly.
Looking at dark horses, Portsmouth only just missed the play-offs last season and a weaker division this time out could well see Pompey going one better this time out while Southend were a team transformed under Chris Powell and could be a good outside shot for a top six place. Peterborough always seem to be thereabouts rather than there but if they can finally find the consistency they've been lacking the last couple of years then they could sneak a top six place. Luton looked impressive during their promotion from League Two last season and will be looking to kick on this time out while Karl Robinson at Oxford will be looking to rebuild his reputation after a lacklustre stint at Charlton last season. The U's have made some promising signings and could be dark horses while Coventry are the sort of side who really should be challenging due to their size but may be happy to settle for mid-table consolidation after a bruising promotion campaign from the bottom flight last season.
For clubs like Doncaster and Plymouth, their resources mean that the potential is always there for a promotion push if they can get the momentum going but it very much depends on the stars aligning the way they did for Shrewsbury last season. Fleetwood are the great unknown quantity of this division with the intelligent but temperamental Joey Barton getting his first shot at management with the Lancastrians. This is one I could see going either way - if Barton takes to management well (and Ched Evans finally rediscovers the goalscoring touch that's pretty much deserted him in recent years) then they could be an outside bet for the play-offs but if his temper gets the better of him, they could struggle.
Bristol Rovers have sat comfortably in mid-table since returning to the third tier a couple of years ago and there's no reason to suggest this season won't be more of the same while Bradford's promotion push fell apart alarmingly after the new year and the appointment of Simon Grayson as manager did little to stop the rot. Grayson has now gone with the inexperienced Michael Collins succeeding him in the manager's chair and top scorer Charlie Wyke leaving for Sunderland - a good start is vital here or City could end up struggling.
Other potential strugglers include Accrington and Wycombe, both of whom will be hoping the team spirit that saw them get promotion from League Two last season will help them stay afloat this time out and Gillingham who've been slowly creeping nearer and nearer to the trapdoor in recent years.
My tips for the drop though are Blackpool, who may find themselves victims of a tougher looking lower half of the table this year, Rochdale who only just sneaked home at the death last time out and will do well to do so again plus Wimbledon and Walsall who were both in a dogfight last season and have seen their squads raided by bigger clubs over the summer. A good start is essential for all of them if they hope to survive this season.
FINAL TABLE
1. Sunderland
2. Scunthorpe United
-------------------
3. Burton Albion
4. Barnsley
5. Portsmouth
6. Southend United
-------------------
7. Charlton Athletic
8. Peterborough United
9. Luton Town
10. Oxford United
11. Coventry City
12. Plymouth Argyle
13. Doncaster Rovers
14. Shrewsbury Town
15. Fleetwood Town
16. Bristol Rovers
17. Bradford City
18. Accrington Stanley
19. Gillingham
20. Wycombe Wanderers
-------------------
21. Blackpool
22. Rochdale
23. Wimbledon
24. Walsall
League Two Predictions 2018-19
Yup, it's that time of the year again where your friendly blogger puts his neck on the line and opens himself up to ridicule by putting out his football predictions for the year. I'll be putting up my League One and Two predictions today followed by the Championship on Friday and the Prem on Sunday. Bet you can't wait...
Anyway, let's start off in the basement, shall we? My tip for the title this season is Notts County - they exceeded expectations to finish in the play-offs last season and it was only a late hiccup that prevented them from going up automatically. With some promising new signings and a good young manager in Kevin Nolan, they should be in prime position to return to League One this time out.
MK Dons should be a shoo-in for promotion, having been in the Championship just three years ago. Key word there - "should". This is a team that's been backsliding for a few years now and as a few before them will tell you, a big stadium and decent attendances doesn't necessarily guarantee success at this level as there'll be plenty of teams queuing up to kick you down to size. However, the appointment of Paul Tisdale, an experienced manager at this level with Exeter, is a good one and they should be able to make an instant return to the third tier barring any hiccups.
Beyond those two, there's a few sides who could round out the automatic promotion places but my tip is Lincoln who scraped the play-offs in their first season back in the league and, having held on to promising manager Danny Cowley and bolstered their squad with some decent looking signings, should be capable of going one better this time out.
Other possible contenders who may have to settle for a play-off place include Mansfield and Swindon who will both be looking to put last season's underachievement behind them and Northampton who've shaken off the disappointment of relegation with the appointment of the popular Dean Austin as their manager and have given their squad a much-needed revamp.
It could go either way for last season's beaten play-off finalists Exeter - the loss of long-serving manager Paul Tisdale to MK Dons is a bitter blow for the Grecians but they've managed to keep the nucleus of last season's squad intact and if new manager Matt Taylor, formerly Tisdale's assistant, can hit the ground running then they should be in with a shout. If not, Carlisle or Cambridge could both feasibly swoop to steal the last play-off place - the former have made a canny looking managerial appointment in John Sheridan, a veteran of getting out of this division while the latter always seem to be there or thereabouts.
Harry Kewell did impressively at Crawley last season, steering a side tipped by many for relegation to the safety of mid-table but going any higher may be beyond their means. Their main concern will be hoping a bigger club doesn't swoop for their manager. Tranmere, back in the league after three seasons away, should have the firepower to consolidate in mid-table before kicking on for a possible promotion push in 2019-20. At the other end of the scale, their north-west neighbours Oldham and Bury will probably be wandering around like plane crash survivors following disastrous relegations last season. Both are unlikely to finish above mid-table and with the financial sharks circling Oldham, it could be much worse if they're not careful.
Colchester, Crewe and Stevenage all look unlikely to improve on their mid-table finishes last season while the arrival of former captain Neil Aspin as manager galvanised Port Vale to safety last time out. They could be dark horses for a play-off shot but a mid-table finish while the rebuilding continues seems more likely before giving it a proper tilt at the top 7 next season.
Looking at potential strugglers, Macclesfield's celebration of winning the National League was cut cruelly short by manager John Askey being poached by near-neighbours Shrewsbury. New manager Mark Yates will need to ensure the confidence the team showed last season rolls over into this one to ensure they stay afloat. Newport did well to finish in the top half last season but with a lot of their best players being picked off by the vultures, a repeat would be a big ask. Cheltenham always seem to be down among the dead men these days and Grimsby and Yeovil both struggled to stay clear of the bottom two last time out and haven't made any changes that suggest the same doesn't beckon this season.
They should manage to limp in ahead of Forest Green and Morecambe though, both of whom only just squeaked home last time and may struggle to do so again. Morecambe have been down among the dead men for a while now and another great escape may just be one ask too many while Forest Green struggled to make the jump up from the National League last season and seeing their chairman cutting his investment back as the realities of League football kick in, they may not be so lucky this time out.
FINAL TABLE
1. Notts County
2. MK Dons
3. Lincoln City
-------------------
4. Swindon Town
5. Mansfield Town
6. Northampton Town
7. Exeter City
-------------------
8. Carlisle United
9. Cambridge United
10. Crawley Town
11. Tranmere Rovers
12. Bury
13. Colchester United
14. Stevenage
15. Oldham Athletic
16. Port Vale
17. Crewe Alexandra
18. Macclesfield Town
19. Newport County
20. Cheltenham Town
21. Grimsby Town
22. Yeovil Town
-------------------
23. Morecambe
24. Forest Green Rovers
Anyway, let's start off in the basement, shall we? My tip for the title this season is Notts County - they exceeded expectations to finish in the play-offs last season and it was only a late hiccup that prevented them from going up automatically. With some promising new signings and a good young manager in Kevin Nolan, they should be in prime position to return to League One this time out.
MK Dons should be a shoo-in for promotion, having been in the Championship just three years ago. Key word there - "should". This is a team that's been backsliding for a few years now and as a few before them will tell you, a big stadium and decent attendances doesn't necessarily guarantee success at this level as there'll be plenty of teams queuing up to kick you down to size. However, the appointment of Paul Tisdale, an experienced manager at this level with Exeter, is a good one and they should be able to make an instant return to the third tier barring any hiccups.
Beyond those two, there's a few sides who could round out the automatic promotion places but my tip is Lincoln who scraped the play-offs in their first season back in the league and, having held on to promising manager Danny Cowley and bolstered their squad with some decent looking signings, should be capable of going one better this time out.
Other possible contenders who may have to settle for a play-off place include Mansfield and Swindon who will both be looking to put last season's underachievement behind them and Northampton who've shaken off the disappointment of relegation with the appointment of the popular Dean Austin as their manager and have given their squad a much-needed revamp.
It could go either way for last season's beaten play-off finalists Exeter - the loss of long-serving manager Paul Tisdale to MK Dons is a bitter blow for the Grecians but they've managed to keep the nucleus of last season's squad intact and if new manager Matt Taylor, formerly Tisdale's assistant, can hit the ground running then they should be in with a shout. If not, Carlisle or Cambridge could both feasibly swoop to steal the last play-off place - the former have made a canny looking managerial appointment in John Sheridan, a veteran of getting out of this division while the latter always seem to be there or thereabouts.
Harry Kewell did impressively at Crawley last season, steering a side tipped by many for relegation to the safety of mid-table but going any higher may be beyond their means. Their main concern will be hoping a bigger club doesn't swoop for their manager. Tranmere, back in the league after three seasons away, should have the firepower to consolidate in mid-table before kicking on for a possible promotion push in 2019-20. At the other end of the scale, their north-west neighbours Oldham and Bury will probably be wandering around like plane crash survivors following disastrous relegations last season. Both are unlikely to finish above mid-table and with the financial sharks circling Oldham, it could be much worse if they're not careful.
Colchester, Crewe and Stevenage all look unlikely to improve on their mid-table finishes last season while the arrival of former captain Neil Aspin as manager galvanised Port Vale to safety last time out. They could be dark horses for a play-off shot but a mid-table finish while the rebuilding continues seems more likely before giving it a proper tilt at the top 7 next season.
Looking at potential strugglers, Macclesfield's celebration of winning the National League was cut cruelly short by manager John Askey being poached by near-neighbours Shrewsbury. New manager Mark Yates will need to ensure the confidence the team showed last season rolls over into this one to ensure they stay afloat. Newport did well to finish in the top half last season but with a lot of their best players being picked off by the vultures, a repeat would be a big ask. Cheltenham always seem to be down among the dead men these days and Grimsby and Yeovil both struggled to stay clear of the bottom two last time out and haven't made any changes that suggest the same doesn't beckon this season.
They should manage to limp in ahead of Forest Green and Morecambe though, both of whom only just squeaked home last time and may struggle to do so again. Morecambe have been down among the dead men for a while now and another great escape may just be one ask too many while Forest Green struggled to make the jump up from the National League last season and seeing their chairman cutting his investment back as the realities of League football kick in, they may not be so lucky this time out.
FINAL TABLE
1. Notts County
2. MK Dons
3. Lincoln City
-------------------
4. Swindon Town
5. Mansfield Town
6. Northampton Town
7. Exeter City
-------------------
8. Carlisle United
9. Cambridge United
10. Crawley Town
11. Tranmere Rovers
12. Bury
13. Colchester United
14. Stevenage
15. Oldham Athletic
16. Port Vale
17. Crewe Alexandra
18. Macclesfield Town
19. Newport County
20. Cheltenham Town
21. Grimsby Town
22. Yeovil Town
-------------------
23. Morecambe
24. Forest Green Rovers
Sunday, 6 August 2017
Premiership Predictions 2017-18
I really don't like to say this as every time I see a club effectively buy the Premiership title a little part of my soul dies but it looks like a straight fight between Manchester City and Chelsea for the big one this season. Chelsea did well last season to rebound from a very poor 2015-16 to win the title but City have been spending big and with Pep Guardiola now having a full season's worth of Premiership experience under his belt, I suspect that they may narrowly pip the Blues to the title this year.
Both Liverpool and Manchester United look to be improving season upon season and I'm going for them to complete the top four. Jurgen Klopp now looks to have a Liverpool side that's definitively his and this stability should see them improve on last season (although it goes without saying that this prediction is based on Coutinho staying with them). Jose Mourinho meanwhile is getting there with United and they should end their absence from the top four in 2017 especially with Romalu Lukaku's goals now added to their front line.
Things look less rosy in North London. Tottenham have done well for the last two seasons but moving away from White Hart Lane right across to Wembley for the 2017-18 campaign plus the departure of Kyle Walker to Man City and a lack of incoming transfers looks like it's really going to hurt them. A top four finish this time out would arguably be even more of an impressive achievement than last season's second place. They still look likely to finish above Arsenal again though where the chaos off the field with the fans in open revolt against Arsene Wenger means I'm predicting a difficult season for the Gunners.
As always, there'll be a number of teams who don't look likely to breach the Top 5 but aren't really in any danger of relegation either. I'm going for Everton to claim their customary 7th place finish but with some good signings including Michael Keane, Wayne Rooney, Jordan Pickford and possibly Gylfi Sigurdsson as well, they may just have Spurs and Arsenal looking nervously over their shoulders. It's a bit difficult to call things with most of the teams in the mid-table zone where positives and negatives seem to be balancing each other out for most clubs. Southampton, despite a change of manager, still look to have a good enough squad to scrape the top half although the departure of Jay Rodriguez to West Brom not to mention the potential loss of Virgil Van Dijk to Liverpool could be potential spanners in the works. I'm therefore predicting Bournemouth to overtake their south coast rivals this season - the capture of Jermain Defoe is a smart move and could actually see them bettering last season's impressive 9th place finish. West Ham have made some interesting signings in Marko Arnautovic, Javier Hernandez, Pablo Zabaleta and Joe Hart. The big if though is whether they can finally put their teething problems at the Olympic Stadium to one side. If so they should be capable of a top half finish.
Stoke seem to be being tipped as potential strugglers by some but the arrival of Darren Fletcher should add some steel to their team and despite the loss of Arnautovic (which they need to address before the transfer window closes), I reckon they should manage mid-table safety. West Brom had an awful run-in last season and could be an outside bet to struggle if they don't get off to a good start. That said, there should be enough quality in their squad to ensure that they can stay afloat and if Jay Rodriguez can get among the goals after signing from Southampton, they should be good for mid-table. By contrast, Leicester had a strong finish last time out but with Riyadh Mahrez looking likely to move on before the transfer window shuts, they could find the going harder this time around. Craig Shakespeare has his hands full in his first managerial role and a few bad results could see the Foxes in a relegation fight.
Newcastle did well to bounce back to the Premiership at the first time of asking but the lack of any serious inbound transfer traffic at St James' Park is a bit worrying. The presence of Rafa Benitez at the helm should mean that they aren't unduly affected by the relegation dogfight but they may need to be careful. Similarly, Crystal Palace's appointment of Frank De Boer as manager could go either way. If he can rediscover the spark from his Ajax days then the Eagles should be okay. If on the other hand, his disastrous spell at Inter Milan wasn't just a blip then another season battling against the drop may beckon. One thing's for certain, with four first-teamers leaving and only two new players coming in, Palace need to start spending and quick.
On the fringes of the danger zone, Burnley scrapped their way to safety last season and with a few capable looking signings they should do so again although I can't see them improving much on last season's 16th place. Replacing Andre Gray's goals has to be the number one priority for the Clarets before the transfer window shuts. Brighton will be relying on Chris Hughton's previous Prem success at Newcastle and their players making the step up to ensure their first run in the Prem for 34 years isn't a short lived one but they should just to say scrape it.
Looking at my tips for the bottom three, Swansea looked to have pulled themselves clear of the bottom three under Paul Clement only for a late season collapse to almost suck them in again and they may not be so lucky this time around especially with the imminent departure of Gylfi Sigurdsson. Likewise, Watford faded badly at the end of the season and have changed managers yet again with former Hull boss Marco Silva the latest incumbent in one of the most unstable jobs in the top two divisions. Hornets fans will be hoping he can hit the ground running if they're to survive this time out. Finally, as much as I would love to see Huddersfield stay up (and I do believe there's an outside chance as they've spent big on some decent signings and have a manager in David Wagner who's going to relish having a crack at the Prem), I just think that the class gap is just going to be a bit too wide for them. But I seriously hope they prove me wrong...
FINAL TABLE
1. Manchester City
2. Chelsea
3. Liverpool
4. Manchester United
5. Tottenham Hotspur
6. Arsenal
7. Everton
8. Bournemouth
9. West Ham United
10. Southampton
11. Stoke City
12. West Bromwich Albion
13. Leicester City
14. Newcastle United
15. Crystal Palace
16. Burnley
17. Brighton & Hove Albion
----------------------------
18. Watford
19. Huddersfield Town
20. Swansea City
Both Liverpool and Manchester United look to be improving season upon season and I'm going for them to complete the top four. Jurgen Klopp now looks to have a Liverpool side that's definitively his and this stability should see them improve on last season (although it goes without saying that this prediction is based on Coutinho staying with them). Jose Mourinho meanwhile is getting there with United and they should end their absence from the top four in 2017 especially with Romalu Lukaku's goals now added to their front line.
Things look less rosy in North London. Tottenham have done well for the last two seasons but moving away from White Hart Lane right across to Wembley for the 2017-18 campaign plus the departure of Kyle Walker to Man City and a lack of incoming transfers looks like it's really going to hurt them. A top four finish this time out would arguably be even more of an impressive achievement than last season's second place. They still look likely to finish above Arsenal again though where the chaos off the field with the fans in open revolt against Arsene Wenger means I'm predicting a difficult season for the Gunners.
As always, there'll be a number of teams who don't look likely to breach the Top 5 but aren't really in any danger of relegation either. I'm going for Everton to claim their customary 7th place finish but with some good signings including Michael Keane, Wayne Rooney, Jordan Pickford and possibly Gylfi Sigurdsson as well, they may just have Spurs and Arsenal looking nervously over their shoulders. It's a bit difficult to call things with most of the teams in the mid-table zone where positives and negatives seem to be balancing each other out for most clubs. Southampton, despite a change of manager, still look to have a good enough squad to scrape the top half although the departure of Jay Rodriguez to West Brom not to mention the potential loss of Virgil Van Dijk to Liverpool could be potential spanners in the works. I'm therefore predicting Bournemouth to overtake their south coast rivals this season - the capture of Jermain Defoe is a smart move and could actually see them bettering last season's impressive 9th place finish. West Ham have made some interesting signings in Marko Arnautovic, Javier Hernandez, Pablo Zabaleta and Joe Hart. The big if though is whether they can finally put their teething problems at the Olympic Stadium to one side. If so they should be capable of a top half finish.
Stoke seem to be being tipped as potential strugglers by some but the arrival of Darren Fletcher should add some steel to their team and despite the loss of Arnautovic (which they need to address before the transfer window closes), I reckon they should manage mid-table safety. West Brom had an awful run-in last season and could be an outside bet to struggle if they don't get off to a good start. That said, there should be enough quality in their squad to ensure that they can stay afloat and if Jay Rodriguez can get among the goals after signing from Southampton, they should be good for mid-table. By contrast, Leicester had a strong finish last time out but with Riyadh Mahrez looking likely to move on before the transfer window shuts, they could find the going harder this time around. Craig Shakespeare has his hands full in his first managerial role and a few bad results could see the Foxes in a relegation fight.
Newcastle did well to bounce back to the Premiership at the first time of asking but the lack of any serious inbound transfer traffic at St James' Park is a bit worrying. The presence of Rafa Benitez at the helm should mean that they aren't unduly affected by the relegation dogfight but they may need to be careful. Similarly, Crystal Palace's appointment of Frank De Boer as manager could go either way. If he can rediscover the spark from his Ajax days then the Eagles should be okay. If on the other hand, his disastrous spell at Inter Milan wasn't just a blip then another season battling against the drop may beckon. One thing's for certain, with four first-teamers leaving and only two new players coming in, Palace need to start spending and quick.
On the fringes of the danger zone, Burnley scrapped their way to safety last season and with a few capable looking signings they should do so again although I can't see them improving much on last season's 16th place. Replacing Andre Gray's goals has to be the number one priority for the Clarets before the transfer window shuts. Brighton will be relying on Chris Hughton's previous Prem success at Newcastle and their players making the step up to ensure their first run in the Prem for 34 years isn't a short lived one but they should just to say scrape it.
Looking at my tips for the bottom three, Swansea looked to have pulled themselves clear of the bottom three under Paul Clement only for a late season collapse to almost suck them in again and they may not be so lucky this time around especially with the imminent departure of Gylfi Sigurdsson. Likewise, Watford faded badly at the end of the season and have changed managers yet again with former Hull boss Marco Silva the latest incumbent in one of the most unstable jobs in the top two divisions. Hornets fans will be hoping he can hit the ground running if they're to survive this time out. Finally, as much as I would love to see Huddersfield stay up (and I do believe there's an outside chance as they've spent big on some decent signings and have a manager in David Wagner who's going to relish having a crack at the Prem), I just think that the class gap is just going to be a bit too wide for them. But I seriously hope they prove me wrong...
FINAL TABLE
1. Manchester City
2. Chelsea
3. Liverpool
4. Manchester United
5. Tottenham Hotspur
6. Arsenal
7. Everton
8. Bournemouth
9. West Ham United
10. Southampton
11. Stoke City
12. West Bromwich Albion
13. Leicester City
14. Newcastle United
15. Crystal Palace
16. Burnley
17. Brighton & Hove Albion
----------------------------
18. Watford
19. Huddersfield Town
20. Swansea City
Championship Predictions 2017-18
The Championship is looking like a difficult one to call this season with no especially standout teams really catching the eye. I'm therefore going to stick my neck out and say that Sheffield Wednesday will win it - the Owls have only just missed out via the play-offs in the last two campaigns and should be able to go one better this time out.
Middlesbrough look the most likely of the relegated sides to make an attempt for an instant comeback and have splashed out on half a new side - however, Boro have found this division a tricky one to get out of in seasons gone by and will need to have their wits about them from the get go to justify their pre-season favourites tag.
Reading were unlucky to lose out to Huddersfield in the play-off final and with the majority of last season's squad still in place, should be well positioned for another tilt at the top two. Wolves are going for a continental approach, spending an eye-watering £16 million on Porto's Ruben Neves and bringing in several other interesting looking players on loan. Their spending power could see them as dark horses in the promotion race.
Norwich underachieved last season but the arrival of young German manager Daniel Farke and an influx of Teutonic players could see them mount a Huddersfield-esque play-off challenge this time out while Sheffield United won League One at a canter and have been busy in the transfer market over the summer to bring their squad up to Championship level. Wednesday may not be the only Steel City club celebrating success at this season's end.
Aston Villa have been bringing in a number of interesting looking players including former Chelsea captain John Terry but this has left them with a very old squad that looks vulnerable to injuries. Steve Bruce will be hoping that the likes of Terry, Christopher Samba and Glenn Whelan can all manage a full season of games but I suspect that they may fall just short of the play-offs. Derby seem to be getting a reputation as the division's perennial nearly-men and unfortunately I think they may be in for another agonising near-miss this season although Gary Rowett may just be able to pull a surprise out of the bag and Tom Huddlestone looks like a decent signing from Hull.
Fulham were last season's surprise package, coming from nowhere to claim the last play-off place before Reading dashed their hopes in the semis. However, with a few players leaving for pastures new and the element of surprise gone they will do well to repeat those heroics and may have to settle for a top half finish this time out. Relegated duo Hull and Sunderland will both be looking to steady the ship after summer exoduses and look likely to end up in mid-table this time around. Leeds came agonisingly close to the play-offs last time but with manager Garry Monk leaving for Middlesbrough and a relative unknown in Thomas Christiansen replacing him, they may find it more difficult this season. Cardiff, meanwhile, should improve on last season's disappointment with Neil Warnock having brought in a number of good value players to improve his squad.
Bristol City and Birmingham both achieved survival thanks to late runs and should fare a bit more comfortably this time. The arrival of Harry Redknapp as manager is quite a coup for the Blues although he's yet to bring in any major new arrivals to a squad that struggled last time out. Preston have had to cope with the loss of manager Simon Grayson to Sunderland and will be hoping that Alex Neil can pick up the baton quickly and repeat some of his heroics at Norwich a few seasons ago.
QPR and Brentford both failed to set the division alight last time out and will probably finish lower mid-table again while Bolton and Millwall will both probably be happy with survival after returning to the division from League One over the summer. Barnsley exceeded expectations to finish mid-table last season but a number of their better players have been picked off by other clubs leading to a rebuilding exercise. They at least look to have secured a few decent signings who should help them sneak home although it could be a close-cut thing.
Looking at the bottom three, Burton did well to survive last time out but the loss of their record signing Liam Boyce for the whole season with a serious injury suffered just a few weeks after he joined really is a rotten slice of luck and could spell big trouble for them. Nottingham Forest only just scraped home in both of the last two campaigns and could struggle to do so again while Ipswich look like a club in chaos with a poor finish last season and an awful set of pre-season results this time out. Mick McCarthy may have to rely on all his managerial experience to prevent the Tractor Boys from a first ever foray into the League's third tier...
FINAL TABLE
1. Sheffield Wednesday
2. Middlesbrough
----------------------------
3. Reading
4. Wolverhampton Wanderers
5. Norwich City
6. Sheffield United
----------------------------
7. Aston Villa
8. Derby County
9. Fulham
10. Hull City
11. Cardiff City
12. Leeds United
13. Sunderland
14. Bristol City
15. Birmingham City
16. Preston North End
17. QPR
18. Bolton Wanderers
19. Brentford
20. Millwall
21. Barnsley
----------------------------
22. Ipswich Town
23. Nottingham Forest
24. Burton Albion
Middlesbrough look the most likely of the relegated sides to make an attempt for an instant comeback and have splashed out on half a new side - however, Boro have found this division a tricky one to get out of in seasons gone by and will need to have their wits about them from the get go to justify their pre-season favourites tag.
Reading were unlucky to lose out to Huddersfield in the play-off final and with the majority of last season's squad still in place, should be well positioned for another tilt at the top two. Wolves are going for a continental approach, spending an eye-watering £16 million on Porto's Ruben Neves and bringing in several other interesting looking players on loan. Their spending power could see them as dark horses in the promotion race.
Norwich underachieved last season but the arrival of young German manager Daniel Farke and an influx of Teutonic players could see them mount a Huddersfield-esque play-off challenge this time out while Sheffield United won League One at a canter and have been busy in the transfer market over the summer to bring their squad up to Championship level. Wednesday may not be the only Steel City club celebrating success at this season's end.
Aston Villa have been bringing in a number of interesting looking players including former Chelsea captain John Terry but this has left them with a very old squad that looks vulnerable to injuries. Steve Bruce will be hoping that the likes of Terry, Christopher Samba and Glenn Whelan can all manage a full season of games but I suspect that they may fall just short of the play-offs. Derby seem to be getting a reputation as the division's perennial nearly-men and unfortunately I think they may be in for another agonising near-miss this season although Gary Rowett may just be able to pull a surprise out of the bag and Tom Huddlestone looks like a decent signing from Hull.
Fulham were last season's surprise package, coming from nowhere to claim the last play-off place before Reading dashed their hopes in the semis. However, with a few players leaving for pastures new and the element of surprise gone they will do well to repeat those heroics and may have to settle for a top half finish this time out. Relegated duo Hull and Sunderland will both be looking to steady the ship after summer exoduses and look likely to end up in mid-table this time around. Leeds came agonisingly close to the play-offs last time but with manager Garry Monk leaving for Middlesbrough and a relative unknown in Thomas Christiansen replacing him, they may find it more difficult this season. Cardiff, meanwhile, should improve on last season's disappointment with Neil Warnock having brought in a number of good value players to improve his squad.
Bristol City and Birmingham both achieved survival thanks to late runs and should fare a bit more comfortably this time. The arrival of Harry Redknapp as manager is quite a coup for the Blues although he's yet to bring in any major new arrivals to a squad that struggled last time out. Preston have had to cope with the loss of manager Simon Grayson to Sunderland and will be hoping that Alex Neil can pick up the baton quickly and repeat some of his heroics at Norwich a few seasons ago.
QPR and Brentford both failed to set the division alight last time out and will probably finish lower mid-table again while Bolton and Millwall will both probably be happy with survival after returning to the division from League One over the summer. Barnsley exceeded expectations to finish mid-table last season but a number of their better players have been picked off by other clubs leading to a rebuilding exercise. They at least look to have secured a few decent signings who should help them sneak home although it could be a close-cut thing.
Looking at the bottom three, Burton did well to survive last time out but the loss of their record signing Liam Boyce for the whole season with a serious injury suffered just a few weeks after he joined really is a rotten slice of luck and could spell big trouble for them. Nottingham Forest only just scraped home in both of the last two campaigns and could struggle to do so again while Ipswich look like a club in chaos with a poor finish last season and an awful set of pre-season results this time out. Mick McCarthy may have to rely on all his managerial experience to prevent the Tractor Boys from a first ever foray into the League's third tier...
FINAL TABLE
1. Sheffield Wednesday
2. Middlesbrough
----------------------------
3. Reading
4. Wolverhampton Wanderers
5. Norwich City
6. Sheffield United
----------------------------
7. Aston Villa
8. Derby County
9. Fulham
10. Hull City
11. Cardiff City
12. Leeds United
13. Sunderland
14. Bristol City
15. Birmingham City
16. Preston North End
17. QPR
18. Bolton Wanderers
19. Brentford
20. Millwall
21. Barnsley
----------------------------
22. Ipswich Town
23. Nottingham Forest
24. Burton Albion
League One Predictions 2017-18
Last season I went for Bradford to win this division and, guess what, I'm doing so again. Unlucky to lose in the play-off final to Millwall, they've kept the nucleus of their squad intact and should have enough to not have to worry about the end of season lottery this time out.
Joining them, I'm going to throw a curveball in and predict Southend to grab the second automatic promotion place. They ended last season well and with the arrival of Michael Kightly and Michael Turner, two players who are way too good for this division, they might just be the surprise package of the season.
A lot of pundits seem to be predicting the relegated duo of Blackburn and Wigan to walk the division but as several clubs (Leeds and both Sheffield teams to name but three) will ruefully tell you, League One is a difficult division for bigger clubs to get out of if they're unprepared for it. Tony Mowbray will clearly want to atone for last season when he suffered the ignominy of managing two relegated clubs (Blackburn and Coventry) in the same season and Rovers have made some interesting looking signings including Bradley Dack and Peter Whittingham plus they have the goals of Danny Graham to call upon but I think this season may be a bit of a learning curve for them and will end in a play-off place rather than automatic promotion. The same goes for Wigan who walked this division two years ago only to tumble straight back down after a disastrous 2016-17 campaign. New manager Paul Cook has reached the play-offs before at this level with Chesterfield but with a tough rebuilding job going on, I can't see the Latics making the top two this time out.
Cook's old club Portsmouth have a new manager in Kenny Jackett and a big money takeover giving them a sizeable transfer war chest and have to be up there among the play-off contenders. Meanwhile Peterborough have been the division's perennial nearly-men for a few years now but the signings of Ricky Miller and Danny Lloyd, both of whom hit twenty plus goals in non-league last season, could be the catalyst they need to spark a play-off push this season.
Scunthorpe and Fleetwood both looked in with a shout of automatic promotion last season but poor run-ins condemned both to defeat in the play-off semi-finals and I suspect their best chance may now have passed. Fleetwood also need to cope with the departure of top scorer David Ball to Rotherham and will be hoping that new signing Conor McAleny can fill his boots quickly.
MK Dons should improve on last season's disappointing finish but I think there's just too many better teams in the division this year for them to breach the Top 6 and they may have to wait until 2018-19 to mount a serious promotion challenge. Similarly Doncaster and Plymouth who came up last season, will probably be happy to consolidate with a mid-table finish. Rotherham ended up relegated by a country mile from the Championship but their squad at least looks solid enough to stabilise in the third tier and ensure the rot doesn't set in any further. Bristol Rovers did well to make the top half last time out but it's difficult to see them progressing much further while Bury are the division's great unknown quantity with manager Lee Clark (who's tasted success at this level with Huddersfield in years gone by) assembling practically a whole new squad over the summer. There's some interesting signings in there but they may be another team who will have to wait until the season after this one to challenge properly.
Looking a bit further down the table, Rochdale's best chance for promotion has probably passed by now and with the division looking a bit stronger this season, their final position may suffer accordingly. The same could be said for Northampton who look unlikely to improve on last season's 16th place finish. You have to feel sorry for Karl Robinson at Charlton who's a good manager at this level but with a pantomime going on off the field, it's very difficult to see the Addicks achieving anything higher than a mid-table finish this time out. Oxford, meanwhile, have suffered the loss of manager Michael Appleton to take the assistant's job at Leicester and have replaced him with an unknown in former Leeds and Swansea assistant Pep Clotet who will have to find his feet quickly especially with the departures of captain John Lundstram to Sheffield United and free-scoring Conor McAleny to Fleetwood.
Oldham looked dead and buried for most of last season but the return of manager John Sheridan following an unsuccessful spell at Notts County proved to be the catalyst for them to stage the big great escape story at this level. The Latics are likely to struggle again but Sheridan should fire them up enough to ensure survival for another season at least. Walsall go into the season with a young team who will have to work as a unit to stay on the right side of the relegation line but they should just squeak it.
Looking at my relegation choices then, Blackpool did very well to bounce back from League Two at the first attempt but with the chaos off the field shadowing progress on it, they may find it difficult to avoid yo-yoing back to the bottom flight. Manager Gary Bowyer has made a few decent signings but the atmosphere at Bloomfield Road right now isn't helping anybody and changes need to be made off the pitch before the Tangerines can start progressing on it. Wimbledon did well to power their way to a mid-table finish last time out but with several of their better players having left for bigger clubs over the summer, they may find this season a lot tougher while Gillingham and Shrewsbury both only just squeaked home last time out and with three of the clubs coming up looking good enough for a top half finish (not to mention the Gills losing star midfielder Bradley Dack to Blackburn), they may not be so lucky this time around...
FINAL TABLE
1. Bradford City
2. Southend United
----------------------------
3. Blackburn Rovers
4. Portsmouth
5. Wigan Athletic
6. Peterborough United
----------------------------
7. Scunthorpe United
8. MK Dons
9. Doncaster Rovers
10. Bristol Rovers
11. Bury
12. Fleetwood Town
13. Rotherham United
14. Plymouth Argyle
15. Rochdale
16. Charlton Athletic
17. Oxford United
18. Northampton Town
19. Oldham Athletic
20. Walsall
----------------------------
21. Blackpool
22. Wimbledon
23. Gillingham
24. Shrewsbury Town
Joining them, I'm going to throw a curveball in and predict Southend to grab the second automatic promotion place. They ended last season well and with the arrival of Michael Kightly and Michael Turner, two players who are way too good for this division, they might just be the surprise package of the season.
A lot of pundits seem to be predicting the relegated duo of Blackburn and Wigan to walk the division but as several clubs (Leeds and both Sheffield teams to name but three) will ruefully tell you, League One is a difficult division for bigger clubs to get out of if they're unprepared for it. Tony Mowbray will clearly want to atone for last season when he suffered the ignominy of managing two relegated clubs (Blackburn and Coventry) in the same season and Rovers have made some interesting looking signings including Bradley Dack and Peter Whittingham plus they have the goals of Danny Graham to call upon but I think this season may be a bit of a learning curve for them and will end in a play-off place rather than automatic promotion. The same goes for Wigan who walked this division two years ago only to tumble straight back down after a disastrous 2016-17 campaign. New manager Paul Cook has reached the play-offs before at this level with Chesterfield but with a tough rebuilding job going on, I can't see the Latics making the top two this time out.
Cook's old club Portsmouth have a new manager in Kenny Jackett and a big money takeover giving them a sizeable transfer war chest and have to be up there among the play-off contenders. Meanwhile Peterborough have been the division's perennial nearly-men for a few years now but the signings of Ricky Miller and Danny Lloyd, both of whom hit twenty plus goals in non-league last season, could be the catalyst they need to spark a play-off push this season.
Scunthorpe and Fleetwood both looked in with a shout of automatic promotion last season but poor run-ins condemned both to defeat in the play-off semi-finals and I suspect their best chance may now have passed. Fleetwood also need to cope with the departure of top scorer David Ball to Rotherham and will be hoping that new signing Conor McAleny can fill his boots quickly.
MK Dons should improve on last season's disappointing finish but I think there's just too many better teams in the division this year for them to breach the Top 6 and they may have to wait until 2018-19 to mount a serious promotion challenge. Similarly Doncaster and Plymouth who came up last season, will probably be happy to consolidate with a mid-table finish. Rotherham ended up relegated by a country mile from the Championship but their squad at least looks solid enough to stabilise in the third tier and ensure the rot doesn't set in any further. Bristol Rovers did well to make the top half last time out but it's difficult to see them progressing much further while Bury are the division's great unknown quantity with manager Lee Clark (who's tasted success at this level with Huddersfield in years gone by) assembling practically a whole new squad over the summer. There's some interesting signings in there but they may be another team who will have to wait until the season after this one to challenge properly.
Looking a bit further down the table, Rochdale's best chance for promotion has probably passed by now and with the division looking a bit stronger this season, their final position may suffer accordingly. The same could be said for Northampton who look unlikely to improve on last season's 16th place finish. You have to feel sorry for Karl Robinson at Charlton who's a good manager at this level but with a pantomime going on off the field, it's very difficult to see the Addicks achieving anything higher than a mid-table finish this time out. Oxford, meanwhile, have suffered the loss of manager Michael Appleton to take the assistant's job at Leicester and have replaced him with an unknown in former Leeds and Swansea assistant Pep Clotet who will have to find his feet quickly especially with the departures of captain John Lundstram to Sheffield United and free-scoring Conor McAleny to Fleetwood.
Oldham looked dead and buried for most of last season but the return of manager John Sheridan following an unsuccessful spell at Notts County proved to be the catalyst for them to stage the big great escape story at this level. The Latics are likely to struggle again but Sheridan should fire them up enough to ensure survival for another season at least. Walsall go into the season with a young team who will have to work as a unit to stay on the right side of the relegation line but they should just squeak it.
Looking at my relegation choices then, Blackpool did very well to bounce back from League Two at the first attempt but with the chaos off the field shadowing progress on it, they may find it difficult to avoid yo-yoing back to the bottom flight. Manager Gary Bowyer has made a few decent signings but the atmosphere at Bloomfield Road right now isn't helping anybody and changes need to be made off the pitch before the Tangerines can start progressing on it. Wimbledon did well to power their way to a mid-table finish last time out but with several of their better players having left for bigger clubs over the summer, they may find this season a lot tougher while Gillingham and Shrewsbury both only just squeaked home last time out and with three of the clubs coming up looking good enough for a top half finish (not to mention the Gills losing star midfielder Bradley Dack to Blackburn), they may not be so lucky this time around...
FINAL TABLE
1. Bradford City
2. Southend United
----------------------------
3. Blackburn Rovers
4. Portsmouth
5. Wigan Athletic
6. Peterborough United
----------------------------
7. Scunthorpe United
8. MK Dons
9. Doncaster Rovers
10. Bristol Rovers
11. Bury
12. Fleetwood Town
13. Rotherham United
14. Plymouth Argyle
15. Rochdale
16. Charlton Athletic
17. Oxford United
18. Northampton Town
19. Oldham Athletic
20. Walsall
----------------------------
21. Blackpool
22. Wimbledon
23. Gillingham
24. Shrewsbury Town
League Two Predictions 2017-18
So I've been a bit slack with this thing of late...nothing new there I hear you say. I very nearly didn't bother with the footy predictions this year because, quite honestly, last season was just totally demoralising for me seeing my team (Hartlepool United) get relegated to the Conference without so much as a whimper. However...after a bit of thought, I decided to give it a go. So let's start with League Two. Please note that all of these were done prior to the first matches of the season yesterday...
Looking at the League's basement division, the team who stand out more than any others to me is Luton. They were very unlucky not to make the top three last year, losing out to Blackpool in the play-off semis instead. With a strengthened squad and nobody coming in from either above or below who look up to the same standard as them, they're my tip for the title this season.
Coventry are really too big a club to be in this division...although having said that, people used to say the same about Portsmouth and it took them a good 3-4 seasons to get out of it. However, Mark Robins is a tried and tested lower league manager and if the Sky Blues can pack their stadium out every week then they should have enough to make sure their stay here is a brief one.
For the third automatic promotion place, I'd say it's a toss-up between Mansfield and Swindon. Both have managers who've got promoted from this division before (Steve Evans for the Stags and David Flitcroft for the Robins) and both have made some canny looking signings this summer. I'm going to go for Mansfield to edge it just because they had a good run-in last season while Swindon were tumbling out of League One and I think that'll give them a stronger start which could be crucial.
Exeter finished last season like a house on fire and if they'd managed to keep the squad from that run-in intact then they'd be a shoo-in for automatic promotion in my book. Alas, other clubs have noticed and the inevitable picking off of the decent players duly happened with Ethan Ampadu being pinched by Chelseas, Joel Grant going to Plymouth and Ollie Watkins leaving for Brentford. Long-serving manager Paul Tisdale should still be able to fire them up to a decent finish but I suspect they may get off to a slow start and have to settle for a play-off place.
Joining Exeter and Swindon in the play-offs, I'm gonna go for two East Midlands clubs who've come into this division from opposite directions Chesterfield and Lincoln. Chesterfield had an awful season last time out but manager Gary Caldwell has a good record with getting teams promoted, having led Wigan to the League One title a couple of seasons back and with a summer spent rebuilding the Spireites' squad they should be in a good position to make a push for the top seven. Lincoln, meanwhile, almost hit 100 points on their way to the Conference title and with some handy looking acquisitions to add to that squad they may well fancy their chances at a second successive promotion.
Port Vale, the fourth relegated club, look the least likely of the quartet to bounce straight back but they could be an outside bet for the play-offs. Michael Brown, in his first managerial job, has pretty much assembled a whole new team at Vale Park which could go either way but the new signings look like a respectable enough fourth division team. Everything depends on how quickly they gel for Vale to mount a promotion challenge. Joining them on the fringes of the play-offs are likely to be Cambridge who've made a few decent signings to bolster what was already a capable squad. Unfortunately I think four quite strong clubs coming down is likely to count against them on this occasion and they may have to wait until 2018-19 to make a serious promotion push.
Carlisle and Grimsby both probably had their best chance of promotion last season but the sale of key strikers (Charlie Wyke from the Cumbrians and Omar Bogle from the Mariners) ultimately led to both having horrendous run-ins and costing them promotion. If either of them are serious about making another go of it this time out then a strong start is badly needed. Similarly, Wycombe have invested in a new strike force of Adam El-Abd and Nathan Tyson, two players with good goalscoring records who've been misfiring a lot in recent years and a lot is going to depend on them getting their form back for the Chairboys to mount a promotion challenge.
Colchester, Notts County and Stevenage all finished mid-table last time out and nothing suggests they won't do so again. The Magpies are probably the most likely of the three to mount an outside promotion bid as Kevin Nolan has made some handy looking signings but like Cambridge they look more like a side who are likely to be bothering the top seven in 2018-19 rather than the upcoming campaign. Stevenage did well to make a top half finish last time out after a very poor previous season but going any higher is probably beyond them at this point in time while Colchester will need to quickly find a replacement for 17-goal Chris Porter who has left for Crewe or they could end up struggling. Porter's arrival at Gresty Road along with a few other decent signings should at least ensure the Railwaymen manage an improvement on last year's dismal season although the departure of star defender Jon Guthrie to Walsall will leave a hole at the back that needs fixing.
If Newport can carry their form from last season's run-in when they went from dead and buried to last day survival, over into this season's campaign then they should be capable of a mid-table finish and with a couple of decent looking signings coming in, there's nothing to suggest they won't. Forest Green finally made it up to the League via the Conference play-offs after a series of near-misses and have brought in a large group of new players but with the added burden of financial spending regulations that the Conference doesn't have and a small support base, a lower mid-table finish looks the most likely outcome for them.
Looking at potential strugglers, Barnet will once again be relying on John Akinde to come up with the goals to keep them afloat, Accrington suffered a poor end to last season and were lucky that they'd already got the points to secure safety. Yeovil's already small squad has been hit by a number of departures and while Morecambe have at least managed to put themselves on a firm financial footing after a few years of uncertainty but now need to concentrate on building up their threadbare squad.
I'm going to plump for Cheltenham and Crawley as being the two unlucky clubs this season though. Cheltenham struggled badly in their first season back in the league after winning the Conference in 2016 and with no eye-catching new signings, they look to be in real danger this time around. Similarly, Crawley have been hovering around the trapdoor for a few seasons now and the departure of top scorer James Collins to Luton could well be a death blow for them. Whoever the relegated clubs end up being, I'm hoping that one of the two teams coming up to replace them is my lot, Hartlepool. But I'm not holding my breath...
FINAL TABLE
1. Luton Town
2. Coventry City
3. Mansfield Town
----------------------------
4. Swindon Town
5. Exeter City
6. Chesterfield
7. Lincoln City
----------------------------
8. Cambridge United
9. Port Vale
10. Carlisle United
11. Wycombe Wanderers
12. Notts County
13. Grimsby Town
14. Colchester United
15. Stevenage Borough
16. Crewe Alexandra
17. Newport County
18. Forest Green Rovers
19. Barnet
20. Accrington Stanley
21. Yeovil Town
22. Morecambe
----------------------------
23. Cheltenham Town
24. Crawley Town
Looking at the League's basement division, the team who stand out more than any others to me is Luton. They were very unlucky not to make the top three last year, losing out to Blackpool in the play-off semis instead. With a strengthened squad and nobody coming in from either above or below who look up to the same standard as them, they're my tip for the title this season.
Coventry are really too big a club to be in this division...although having said that, people used to say the same about Portsmouth and it took them a good 3-4 seasons to get out of it. However, Mark Robins is a tried and tested lower league manager and if the Sky Blues can pack their stadium out every week then they should have enough to make sure their stay here is a brief one.
For the third automatic promotion place, I'd say it's a toss-up between Mansfield and Swindon. Both have managers who've got promoted from this division before (Steve Evans for the Stags and David Flitcroft for the Robins) and both have made some canny looking signings this summer. I'm going to go for Mansfield to edge it just because they had a good run-in last season while Swindon were tumbling out of League One and I think that'll give them a stronger start which could be crucial.
Exeter finished last season like a house on fire and if they'd managed to keep the squad from that run-in intact then they'd be a shoo-in for automatic promotion in my book. Alas, other clubs have noticed and the inevitable picking off of the decent players duly happened with Ethan Ampadu being pinched by Chelseas, Joel Grant going to Plymouth and Ollie Watkins leaving for Brentford. Long-serving manager Paul Tisdale should still be able to fire them up to a decent finish but I suspect they may get off to a slow start and have to settle for a play-off place.
Joining Exeter and Swindon in the play-offs, I'm gonna go for two East Midlands clubs who've come into this division from opposite directions Chesterfield and Lincoln. Chesterfield had an awful season last time out but manager Gary Caldwell has a good record with getting teams promoted, having led Wigan to the League One title a couple of seasons back and with a summer spent rebuilding the Spireites' squad they should be in a good position to make a push for the top seven. Lincoln, meanwhile, almost hit 100 points on their way to the Conference title and with some handy looking acquisitions to add to that squad they may well fancy their chances at a second successive promotion.
Port Vale, the fourth relegated club, look the least likely of the quartet to bounce straight back but they could be an outside bet for the play-offs. Michael Brown, in his first managerial job, has pretty much assembled a whole new team at Vale Park which could go either way but the new signings look like a respectable enough fourth division team. Everything depends on how quickly they gel for Vale to mount a promotion challenge. Joining them on the fringes of the play-offs are likely to be Cambridge who've made a few decent signings to bolster what was already a capable squad. Unfortunately I think four quite strong clubs coming down is likely to count against them on this occasion and they may have to wait until 2018-19 to make a serious promotion push.
Carlisle and Grimsby both probably had their best chance of promotion last season but the sale of key strikers (Charlie Wyke from the Cumbrians and Omar Bogle from the Mariners) ultimately led to both having horrendous run-ins and costing them promotion. If either of them are serious about making another go of it this time out then a strong start is badly needed. Similarly, Wycombe have invested in a new strike force of Adam El-Abd and Nathan Tyson, two players with good goalscoring records who've been misfiring a lot in recent years and a lot is going to depend on them getting their form back for the Chairboys to mount a promotion challenge.
Colchester, Notts County and Stevenage all finished mid-table last time out and nothing suggests they won't do so again. The Magpies are probably the most likely of the three to mount an outside promotion bid as Kevin Nolan has made some handy looking signings but like Cambridge they look more like a side who are likely to be bothering the top seven in 2018-19 rather than the upcoming campaign. Stevenage did well to make a top half finish last time out after a very poor previous season but going any higher is probably beyond them at this point in time while Colchester will need to quickly find a replacement for 17-goal Chris Porter who has left for Crewe or they could end up struggling. Porter's arrival at Gresty Road along with a few other decent signings should at least ensure the Railwaymen manage an improvement on last year's dismal season although the departure of star defender Jon Guthrie to Walsall will leave a hole at the back that needs fixing.
If Newport can carry their form from last season's run-in when they went from dead and buried to last day survival, over into this season's campaign then they should be capable of a mid-table finish and with a couple of decent looking signings coming in, there's nothing to suggest they won't. Forest Green finally made it up to the League via the Conference play-offs after a series of near-misses and have brought in a large group of new players but with the added burden of financial spending regulations that the Conference doesn't have and a small support base, a lower mid-table finish looks the most likely outcome for them.
Looking at potential strugglers, Barnet will once again be relying on John Akinde to come up with the goals to keep them afloat, Accrington suffered a poor end to last season and were lucky that they'd already got the points to secure safety. Yeovil's already small squad has been hit by a number of departures and while Morecambe have at least managed to put themselves on a firm financial footing after a few years of uncertainty but now need to concentrate on building up their threadbare squad.
I'm going to plump for Cheltenham and Crawley as being the two unlucky clubs this season though. Cheltenham struggled badly in their first season back in the league after winning the Conference in 2016 and with no eye-catching new signings, they look to be in real danger this time around. Similarly, Crawley have been hovering around the trapdoor for a few seasons now and the departure of top scorer James Collins to Luton could well be a death blow for them. Whoever the relegated clubs end up being, I'm hoping that one of the two teams coming up to replace them is my lot, Hartlepool. But I'm not holding my breath...
FINAL TABLE
1. Luton Town
2. Coventry City
3. Mansfield Town
----------------------------
4. Swindon Town
5. Exeter City
6. Chesterfield
7. Lincoln City
----------------------------
8. Cambridge United
9. Port Vale
10. Carlisle United
11. Wycombe Wanderers
12. Notts County
13. Grimsby Town
14. Colchester United
15. Stevenage Borough
16. Crewe Alexandra
17. Newport County
18. Forest Green Rovers
19. Barnet
20. Accrington Stanley
21. Yeovil Town
22. Morecambe
----------------------------
23. Cheltenham Town
24. Crawley Town
Friday, 5 August 2016
Premier League Predictions 2016-17
Last season proved if anything that maybe the Premiership isn't always as easy predict as we sometimes think it is. To wit - your correspondant wrote of Leicester that he thought that they could easily prove a surprise package under Claudio Ranieri...and make the top half. Well, that was an understatement if ever there was one. Meanwhile, my tip (and most people's) for the title Chelsea self-destructed quite spectacularly and limped their way to a 9th place finish, their worst for over a decade.
So what of this season? Well, I'm going to stick my neck out, go against the flow and say that this will be the season that Arsenal finally end their ten year wait for a title. The fact that they came in second last time around despite being supremely inconsistent highlights the quality of their squad and although pre-season transfer activity has been fairly quiet at the Emirates, Arsene Wenger normally tends to leave his deals until late anyhow. There's a big "if" attached to this though - the Gunners need to stay injury free which has been their downfall the last few seasons. Can they manage it? Some would say they're due a season where things go right on that front for a change...
North London neighbours Tottenham should run them close again - they did brilliantly to finish third last season and keep the pressure on Leicester until the very late stages and have kept last season's squad intact. As long as the likes of Harry Kane and Dele Alli don't suffer a hangover from England's disastrous Euro campaign, there's no reason they can't challenge again.
Stung by last season's failure, Manchester United and Manchester City have both made sweeping and expensive changes but as last season proved, mass spending doesn't necessarily guarantee you the title anymore. Jose Mourinho's appointment on the red side of Manchester could go either way but it took him two seasons to turn a fading Chelsea side into champions a few years ago and I suspect it may be the same at Old Trafford this time out. That said, they should comfortably make the Champions League places.
Meanwhile on the blue side of the city, Pep Guardiola is a very ambitious appointment by City following the departure of Manuel Pellegrini but he's untested in the Prem and for every Mourinho that joins the Premier League and gets it right first time, there's a Phil Scolari or Andre Villas-Boas who come in with a great reputation abroad but never quite adapt. Guardiola has been splashing the cash like there's no tomorrow but I get the impression that it could go either way for City this season - either they'll walk it or things'll go wrong and they'll come in fourth again. My money's on the latter.
Leicester's title win last season was a story to warm all but the coldest of football fans' hearts but with an added Champions League campaign to occupy them this season and the test of having to stay injury-free for a second consecutive season, a repeat may just be beyond them unfortunately. Nevertheless, confidence will be sky high at the Walkers Stadium going into this season and it should propel them to at least a UEFA Cup place.
Jose Mourinho paid the price for last season's failure at Chelsea and with Antonio Conte stepping into the hotseat, expectations will be higher this time around. However, confidence is likely to be low at Stamford Bridge right now and the half dozen or so big money new recruits will need to settle in fast. They may be in with an outside shot of the Top 4 but I suspect they may stall just outside it.
West Ham's best chance of upsetting the apple cart with a Top 4 finish may have come and gone last season but they've managed to keep a hold of pretty much all of the squad that did so well under Slavan Bilic and added a couple more signings. They should finish well inside the top half.
Liverpool underachieved badly even after Jurgen Klopp replaced Brendan Rodgers in the hot seat last season and given that their big summer signing is the massively inconsistent Georgino Wijnaldum from relegated Newcastle, I'm not so sure that this season will be any better for them. Klopp may need a good Cup run to keep the Anfield faithful on his side this season if things start to backfire.
Across Stanley Park, Everton's recruitment of Ronald Koeman should reinvigorate them a bit but Southampton, the club who he left the Toffees for, not only have to rebuild but also have a UEFA Cup campaign to test the fitness levels of their relatively small squad. They should just scrape a top half finish but no higher.
It's difficult to see Stoke and West Brom doing anything other than their usual mid-table spot (though the former's capture of Berahino from the latter should be interesting). Sunderland have appointed a relatively safe pair of hands in David Moyes to replace England-bound Sam Allardyce and should achieve safety a bit more comfortably this time out. Of the three promoted clubs, Middlesbrough look best equipped to survive at this level with Aitor Karanka using his connections across the continent to bring in almost a whole new squad. How quickly they gel will be key to Boro's success but if all goes to plan then they shouldn't be unduly worried about an instant return to the Championship.
Looking at those likely to struggle, I think it'll be three from the following six to face the dreaded drop this season. Bournemouth did well to battle their way to safety in their first season in the Prem but the departure of Matt Ritchie to Newcastle is likely to hurt them. They'll be hoping that Jordan Ibe will be able to find his scoring boots quickly following his move to the south coast from Liverpool.
Burnley at least have the relative luxury of having been in the Prem fairly recently and should know what's required to battle their way to safety this time around but with a small squad they'll be hoping to stay injury free and that the likes of Andre Gray can continue the form they showed in the Championship last season. Swansea, meanwhile, drifted backwards badly last season and with several players having taken part in Wales' Herculean European Championship adventure and no doubt feeling the after-effects, it could be a testing season for them.
Watford and Crystal Palace both went into freefall at the tail end of last season and that's often a bad omen for the following campaign (as Newcastle fans will doubtless regretfully testify). Palace's capture of Andros Townsend from the relegated Geordies is a good signing but they've lost Dwight Gayle, one of their better players, in exchange. They badly need a good start or it could be a very long hard winter at Selhurst Park. Watford, meanwhile, have changed managers yet again (now on their fourth in three seasons) and the lack of stability could well come back to bite them this season.
Compared to Hull, however, Watford look like a relatively stable outfit - with Steve Bruce leaving a matter of weeks after helping the Tigers to promotion via the play-offs and no incoming transfers to speak of, the situation at the KC Stadium looks very messy to say the least. Barring a miracle, unfortunately it looks like this is going to be a very short stay indeed in the Premiership for them. But hey, a lot of people were saying that about Leicester last time out so you never know...
FINAL TABLE
1. Arsenal
-------------------------------------
2. Tottenham
3. Manchester Utd
4. Manchester City
-------------------------------------
5. Leicester
-------------------------------------
6. Chelsea
7. West Ham
8. Liverpool
9. Everton
10. Southampton
11. Stoke
12. Middlesbrough
13. West Brom
14. Sunderland
15. Bournemouth
16. Burnley
17. Swansea
-------------------------------------
18. Watford
19. Crystal Palace
20. Hull
So what of this season? Well, I'm going to stick my neck out, go against the flow and say that this will be the season that Arsenal finally end their ten year wait for a title. The fact that they came in second last time around despite being supremely inconsistent highlights the quality of their squad and although pre-season transfer activity has been fairly quiet at the Emirates, Arsene Wenger normally tends to leave his deals until late anyhow. There's a big "if" attached to this though - the Gunners need to stay injury free which has been their downfall the last few seasons. Can they manage it? Some would say they're due a season where things go right on that front for a change...
North London neighbours Tottenham should run them close again - they did brilliantly to finish third last season and keep the pressure on Leicester until the very late stages and have kept last season's squad intact. As long as the likes of Harry Kane and Dele Alli don't suffer a hangover from England's disastrous Euro campaign, there's no reason they can't challenge again.
Stung by last season's failure, Manchester United and Manchester City have both made sweeping and expensive changes but as last season proved, mass spending doesn't necessarily guarantee you the title anymore. Jose Mourinho's appointment on the red side of Manchester could go either way but it took him two seasons to turn a fading Chelsea side into champions a few years ago and I suspect it may be the same at Old Trafford this time out. That said, they should comfortably make the Champions League places.
Meanwhile on the blue side of the city, Pep Guardiola is a very ambitious appointment by City following the departure of Manuel Pellegrini but he's untested in the Prem and for every Mourinho that joins the Premier League and gets it right first time, there's a Phil Scolari or Andre Villas-Boas who come in with a great reputation abroad but never quite adapt. Guardiola has been splashing the cash like there's no tomorrow but I get the impression that it could go either way for City this season - either they'll walk it or things'll go wrong and they'll come in fourth again. My money's on the latter.
Leicester's title win last season was a story to warm all but the coldest of football fans' hearts but with an added Champions League campaign to occupy them this season and the test of having to stay injury-free for a second consecutive season, a repeat may just be beyond them unfortunately. Nevertheless, confidence will be sky high at the Walkers Stadium going into this season and it should propel them to at least a UEFA Cup place.
Jose Mourinho paid the price for last season's failure at Chelsea and with Antonio Conte stepping into the hotseat, expectations will be higher this time around. However, confidence is likely to be low at Stamford Bridge right now and the half dozen or so big money new recruits will need to settle in fast. They may be in with an outside shot of the Top 4 but I suspect they may stall just outside it.
West Ham's best chance of upsetting the apple cart with a Top 4 finish may have come and gone last season but they've managed to keep a hold of pretty much all of the squad that did so well under Slavan Bilic and added a couple more signings. They should finish well inside the top half.
Liverpool underachieved badly even after Jurgen Klopp replaced Brendan Rodgers in the hot seat last season and given that their big summer signing is the massively inconsistent Georgino Wijnaldum from relegated Newcastle, I'm not so sure that this season will be any better for them. Klopp may need a good Cup run to keep the Anfield faithful on his side this season if things start to backfire.
Across Stanley Park, Everton's recruitment of Ronald Koeman should reinvigorate them a bit but Southampton, the club who he left the Toffees for, not only have to rebuild but also have a UEFA Cup campaign to test the fitness levels of their relatively small squad. They should just scrape a top half finish but no higher.
It's difficult to see Stoke and West Brom doing anything other than their usual mid-table spot (though the former's capture of Berahino from the latter should be interesting). Sunderland have appointed a relatively safe pair of hands in David Moyes to replace England-bound Sam Allardyce and should achieve safety a bit more comfortably this time out. Of the three promoted clubs, Middlesbrough look best equipped to survive at this level with Aitor Karanka using his connections across the continent to bring in almost a whole new squad. How quickly they gel will be key to Boro's success but if all goes to plan then they shouldn't be unduly worried about an instant return to the Championship.
Looking at those likely to struggle, I think it'll be three from the following six to face the dreaded drop this season. Bournemouth did well to battle their way to safety in their first season in the Prem but the departure of Matt Ritchie to Newcastle is likely to hurt them. They'll be hoping that Jordan Ibe will be able to find his scoring boots quickly following his move to the south coast from Liverpool.
Burnley at least have the relative luxury of having been in the Prem fairly recently and should know what's required to battle their way to safety this time around but with a small squad they'll be hoping to stay injury free and that the likes of Andre Gray can continue the form they showed in the Championship last season. Swansea, meanwhile, drifted backwards badly last season and with several players having taken part in Wales' Herculean European Championship adventure and no doubt feeling the after-effects, it could be a testing season for them.
Watford and Crystal Palace both went into freefall at the tail end of last season and that's often a bad omen for the following campaign (as Newcastle fans will doubtless regretfully testify). Palace's capture of Andros Townsend from the relegated Geordies is a good signing but they've lost Dwight Gayle, one of their better players, in exchange. They badly need a good start or it could be a very long hard winter at Selhurst Park. Watford, meanwhile, have changed managers yet again (now on their fourth in three seasons) and the lack of stability could well come back to bite them this season.
Compared to Hull, however, Watford look like a relatively stable outfit - with Steve Bruce leaving a matter of weeks after helping the Tigers to promotion via the play-offs and no incoming transfers to speak of, the situation at the KC Stadium looks very messy to say the least. Barring a miracle, unfortunately it looks like this is going to be a very short stay indeed in the Premiership for them. But hey, a lot of people were saying that about Leicester last time out so you never know...
FINAL TABLE
1. Arsenal
-------------------------------------
2. Tottenham
3. Manchester Utd
4. Manchester City
-------------------------------------
5. Leicester
-------------------------------------
6. Chelsea
7. West Ham
8. Liverpool
9. Everton
10. Southampton
11. Stoke
12. Middlesbrough
13. West Brom
14. Sunderland
15. Bournemouth
16. Burnley
17. Swansea
-------------------------------------
18. Watford
19. Crystal Palace
20. Hull
Thursday, 4 August 2016
Championship Predictions 2016-17
The Championship is looking like a particularly tough division to escape from this season with three strong relegated clubs and a lot who missed out last season strengthening. Nevertheless, I think it'd be a brave man who bets against Newcastle. Having defied expectations by persuading Rafa Benitez to stay on as manager and with a clutch of exciting signings, tradition dictates they should walk this division. However, they need to be aware that they're likely to have a very big target on their backs with a lot of teams out to put one over the big dog in the yard. Can they handle the pressure? We'll see...
Brighton were very unlucky to miss out last time and should go one better this time round with the majority of last season's title-challenging squad still in place at the Withdean Stadium. Norwich should be in the mix-up as well as they've kept the majority of the squad (not to mention the manager Alex Neil) who got them out of this league two seasons ago although the departure of Nathan Redmond to Southampton makes me think they may get edged out by Brighton and have to settle for a play-off place.
Sheffield Wednesday were the form team at the end of last season and should make the play-offs again - they could even go one better with a bit of luck and other teams slipping up. The big unknown quantity are Wolves with a new board, new manager and a huge transfer war chest. A lot is going to be determined by how they spend it between now and deadline day but don't bet against them finishing the highest out of the three West Midlands clubs in the Championship.
Can Derby finally put the hoodoo of the last few seasons behind them? Nigel Pearson is a good appointment as manager and should see them back for a play-off challenge after the disappointment of just missing out the last couple of times but I think there's just too many stronger teams for them to make the top two.
Cardiff and Ipswich could be outside bets for the top six - both have come close in recent years and have a good solid core of players to build their team around but their comparative lack of spending power might see them edged out. Aston Villa, relegated last season, have at least had a clearout following Remi Garde's disastrous reign and Ross McCormack should get them plenty of goals but getting back into the Premiership looks likely to be a two-season job for them and they may have to settle for a spot just outside the play-offs this time out.
QPR and Birmingham have a slim chance at the top six as both have good young managers (Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink and Gary Rowett respectively) and are making steps back in the right direction after recent troubles but this may be a season too soon for them to challenge. Leeds have got a good manager in Garry Monk who's already attracted some promising signings to the club but as long as the pantomime off the field under Massimo Cellino continues I just can't see them getting any higher than mid-table. Likewise, Wigan did well to bounce back from relegation at the first attempt last season but while they should stay comfortably clear of the drop zone, it's difficult to see them gunning for a second successive promotion.
Brentford were actually my tip for the title last season but a series of injuries to key players and others underperforming saw them finish mid-table and I can't see anything different happening this time around. Many were expecting Blackburn to freefall following the departure of Jordan Rhodes to Middlesbrough but they managed to stay afloat with room to spare and with a few canny looking signings coming in they should manage a comfortable mid-table finish this season. Similarly, Preston, Reading and Bristol City all finished mid-table last time out and look likely to do so again with no real exciting developments or worrying signs to speak of at any of them.
Looking downwards at the teams likely to struggle, Huddersfield always seem to be down among the dead men but end up avoiding the drop. With little activity on the transfer market this summer they could end up struggling but I think there are weaker sides down there which should mean they stay up by default. It'd be tempting to mark Barnsley and Burton down as relegation fodder following their shock promotions last season but Barnsley went into the play-offs on a storming run of form and if they can carry that over into this season (big if), it should be enough for them to survive. Likewise, Nigel Clough is an experienced manager at this level and with a few canny signings coming in, Burton might actually surprise a few people by battling their way to a second season at this level.
The big irony is that this may come at the expense of one of their much larger near-neighbours Nottingham Forest who've been on the skids for quite some time now. Philippe Montainer is no less than their fifth manager in two years and with financial problems off the field, Forest may find themselves facing an unwanted trip into lower league football in 2017. Fulham only just scraped home last season and the loss of top scorer Ross McCormack to Aston Villa may well be a death blow for them while Rotherham's failure to tie down Neil Warnock, the architect of their great escape last time out, to a long term contract leaves them with a mountain to climb to stay in the second tier this time out. But then again, they can take comfort in the fact that I said that about them (and Fulham for that matter) last season and they still managed it. Like I said, it's an unpredictable league the Championship...
FINAL TABLE
1. Newcastle
2. Brighton
------------------------------------------------
3. Norwich
4. Sheff Weds
5. Wolves
6. Derby
------------------------------------------------
7. Cardiff
8. Ipswich
9. Aston Villa
10. QPR
11. Birmingham
12. Leeds
13. Wigan
14. Bristol City
15. Brentford
16. Blackburn
17. Preston
18. Reading
19. Huddersfield
20. Barnsley
21. Burton
------------------------------------------------
22. Nottingham Forest
23. Fulham
24. Rotherham
Brighton were very unlucky to miss out last time and should go one better this time round with the majority of last season's title-challenging squad still in place at the Withdean Stadium. Norwich should be in the mix-up as well as they've kept the majority of the squad (not to mention the manager Alex Neil) who got them out of this league two seasons ago although the departure of Nathan Redmond to Southampton makes me think they may get edged out by Brighton and have to settle for a play-off place.
Sheffield Wednesday were the form team at the end of last season and should make the play-offs again - they could even go one better with a bit of luck and other teams slipping up. The big unknown quantity are Wolves with a new board, new manager and a huge transfer war chest. A lot is going to be determined by how they spend it between now and deadline day but don't bet against them finishing the highest out of the three West Midlands clubs in the Championship.
Can Derby finally put the hoodoo of the last few seasons behind them? Nigel Pearson is a good appointment as manager and should see them back for a play-off challenge after the disappointment of just missing out the last couple of times but I think there's just too many stronger teams for them to make the top two.
Cardiff and Ipswich could be outside bets for the top six - both have come close in recent years and have a good solid core of players to build their team around but their comparative lack of spending power might see them edged out. Aston Villa, relegated last season, have at least had a clearout following Remi Garde's disastrous reign and Ross McCormack should get them plenty of goals but getting back into the Premiership looks likely to be a two-season job for them and they may have to settle for a spot just outside the play-offs this time out.
QPR and Birmingham have a slim chance at the top six as both have good young managers (Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink and Gary Rowett respectively) and are making steps back in the right direction after recent troubles but this may be a season too soon for them to challenge. Leeds have got a good manager in Garry Monk who's already attracted some promising signings to the club but as long as the pantomime off the field under Massimo Cellino continues I just can't see them getting any higher than mid-table. Likewise, Wigan did well to bounce back from relegation at the first attempt last season but while they should stay comfortably clear of the drop zone, it's difficult to see them gunning for a second successive promotion.
Brentford were actually my tip for the title last season but a series of injuries to key players and others underperforming saw them finish mid-table and I can't see anything different happening this time around. Many were expecting Blackburn to freefall following the departure of Jordan Rhodes to Middlesbrough but they managed to stay afloat with room to spare and with a few canny looking signings coming in they should manage a comfortable mid-table finish this season. Similarly, Preston, Reading and Bristol City all finished mid-table last time out and look likely to do so again with no real exciting developments or worrying signs to speak of at any of them.
Looking downwards at the teams likely to struggle, Huddersfield always seem to be down among the dead men but end up avoiding the drop. With little activity on the transfer market this summer they could end up struggling but I think there are weaker sides down there which should mean they stay up by default. It'd be tempting to mark Barnsley and Burton down as relegation fodder following their shock promotions last season but Barnsley went into the play-offs on a storming run of form and if they can carry that over into this season (big if), it should be enough for them to survive. Likewise, Nigel Clough is an experienced manager at this level and with a few canny signings coming in, Burton might actually surprise a few people by battling their way to a second season at this level.
The big irony is that this may come at the expense of one of their much larger near-neighbours Nottingham Forest who've been on the skids for quite some time now. Philippe Montainer is no less than their fifth manager in two years and with financial problems off the field, Forest may find themselves facing an unwanted trip into lower league football in 2017. Fulham only just scraped home last season and the loss of top scorer Ross McCormack to Aston Villa may well be a death blow for them while Rotherham's failure to tie down Neil Warnock, the architect of their great escape last time out, to a long term contract leaves them with a mountain to climb to stay in the second tier this time out. But then again, they can take comfort in the fact that I said that about them (and Fulham for that matter) last season and they still managed it. Like I said, it's an unpredictable league the Championship...
FINAL TABLE
1. Newcastle
2. Brighton
------------------------------------------------
3. Norwich
4. Sheff Weds
5. Wolves
6. Derby
------------------------------------------------
7. Cardiff
8. Ipswich
9. Aston Villa
10. QPR
11. Birmingham
12. Leeds
13. Wigan
14. Bristol City
15. Brentford
16. Blackburn
17. Preston
18. Reading
19. Huddersfield
20. Barnsley
21. Burton
------------------------------------------------
22. Nottingham Forest
23. Fulham
24. Rotherham
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