Thursday, 4 August 2016

Championship Predictions 2016-17

The Championship is looking like a particularly tough division to escape from this season with three strong relegated clubs and a lot who missed out last season strengthening. Nevertheless, I think it'd be a brave man who bets against Newcastle. Having defied expectations by persuading Rafa Benitez to stay on as manager and with a clutch of exciting signings, tradition dictates they should walk this division. However, they need to be aware that they're likely to have a very big target on their backs with a lot of teams out to put one over the big dog in the yard. Can they handle the pressure? We'll see...

Brighton were very unlucky to miss out last time and should go one better this time round with the majority of last season's title-challenging squad still in place at the Withdean Stadium. Norwich should be in the mix-up as well as they've kept the majority of the squad (not to mention the manager Alex Neil) who got them out of this league two seasons ago although the departure of Nathan Redmond to Southampton makes me think they may get edged out by Brighton and have to settle for a play-off place.

Sheffield Wednesday were the form team at the end of last season and should make the play-offs again - they could even go one better with a bit of luck and other teams slipping up. The big unknown quantity are Wolves with a new board, new manager and a huge transfer war chest. A lot is going to be determined by how they spend it between now and deadline day but don't bet against them finishing the highest out of the three West Midlands clubs in the Championship.

Can Derby finally put the hoodoo of the last few seasons behind them? Nigel Pearson is a good appointment as manager and should see them back for a play-off challenge after the disappointment of just missing out the last couple of times but I think there's just too many stronger teams for them to make the top two.

Cardiff and Ipswich could be outside bets for the top six - both have come close in recent years and have a good solid core of players to build their team around but their comparative lack of spending power might see them edged out. Aston Villa, relegated last season, have at least had a clearout following Remi Garde's disastrous reign and Ross McCormack should get them plenty of goals but getting back into the Premiership looks likely to be a two-season job for them and they may have to settle for a spot just outside the play-offs this time out.

QPR and Birmingham have a slim chance at the top six as both have good young managers (Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink and Gary Rowett respectively) and are making steps back in the right direction after recent troubles but this may be a season too soon for them to challenge. Leeds have got a good manager in Garry Monk who's already attracted some promising signings to the club but as long as the pantomime off the field under Massimo Cellino continues I just can't see them getting any higher than mid-table. Likewise, Wigan did well to bounce back from relegation at the first attempt last season but while they should stay comfortably clear of the drop zone, it's difficult to see them gunning for a second successive promotion.

Brentford were actually my tip for the title last season but a series of injuries to key players and others underperforming saw them finish mid-table and I can't see anything different happening this time around. Many were expecting Blackburn to freefall following the departure of Jordan Rhodes to Middlesbrough but they managed to stay afloat with room to spare and with a few canny looking signings coming in they should manage a comfortable mid-table finish this season. Similarly, Preston, Reading and Bristol City all finished mid-table last time out and look likely to do so again with no real exciting developments or worrying signs to speak of at any of them.

Looking downwards at the teams likely to struggle, Huddersfield always seem to be down among the dead men but end up avoiding the drop. With little activity on the transfer market this summer they could end up struggling but I think there are weaker sides down there which should mean they stay up by default. It'd be tempting to mark Barnsley and Burton down as relegation fodder following their shock promotions last season but Barnsley went into the play-offs on a storming run of form and if they can carry that over into this season (big if), it should be enough for them to survive. Likewise, Nigel Clough is an experienced manager at this level and with a few canny signings coming in, Burton might actually surprise a few people by battling their way to a second season at this level.

The big irony is that this may come at the expense of one of their much larger near-neighbours Nottingham Forest who've been on the skids for quite some time now. Philippe Montainer is no less than their fifth manager in two years and with financial problems off the field, Forest may find themselves facing an unwanted trip into lower league football in 2017. Fulham only just scraped home last season and the loss of top scorer Ross McCormack to Aston Villa may well be a death blow for them while Rotherham's failure to tie down Neil Warnock, the architect of their great escape last time out, to a long term contract leaves them with a mountain to climb to stay in the second tier this time out. But then again, they can take comfort in the fact that I said that about them (and Fulham for that matter) last season and they still managed it. Like I said, it's an unpredictable league the Championship...

FINAL TABLE

1. Newcastle
2. Brighton
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3. Norwich
4. Sheff Weds
5. Wolves
6. Derby
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7. Cardiff
8. Ipswich
9. Aston Villa
10. QPR
11. Birmingham
12. Leeds
13. Wigan
14. Bristol City
15. Brentford
16. Blackburn
17. Preston
18. Reading
19. Huddersfield
20. Barnsley
21. Burton
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22. Nottingham Forest
23. Fulham
24. Rotherham

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