Wednesday, 3 August 2016

League One Predictions 2016-17

The third tier is always a difficult one to predict in football and this season is no different - however, with a trio of weak teams being relegated it seems that the most obvious contenders would be the losers in last season's play-offs.

Bradford are my choice for the title this time. The departure of Phil Parkinson was a big blow but the return of Stuart McCall to the hotseat after gaining some extra experience north of the border should soften the blow. With some promising summer signings and an increased transfer budget, don't bet against the Bantams joining Huddersfield and Leeds in the Championship next season.

Millwall, defeated in the play-off final by Barnsley, should be up there as well. They've kept the nucleus of their side together and finished last season strongly. With a weaker division this time around, the omens look good for them returning to the second tier after a two year absence.

Sheffield United were my pick for the title last season but they blew it pretty comprehensively and failed to even make the play-offs. Manager Nigel Adkins paid the price with former Blades player Chris Wilder being brought in from Northampton to replace him fresh from lifting the League Two title there. With seven players in and a massive seventeen released, Wilder is clearly set on streamlining the squad which makes me hesitant to tip them for automatic promotion but they should have enough for another shot at the play-offs.

Joining the Blades in the end of season lottery, expect to see Scunthorpe who finished last season like a house on fire but timed their run just too late to make the top six. With the squad that put that run together pretty much still intact, expect them to go one better this time. Similarly, Gillingham who are slowly creeping up the table season upon season might well breach the top six this time. Coventry and Walsall have both lost key players since last season but in the absence of any major competition should still be well placed for a tilt at the end of season lottery.

I can't see any of the relegated clubs challenging for promotion back to the Championship at the first attempt. MK Dons, who are at least financially sound off the field, are probably the best placed of the three but they had a wretched finish to last season and finished ten points adrift of safety. A good start is essential if they're to challenge this time out. Charlton have a pantomime going on behind the scenes with a mass fan boycott, fourteen players leaving and just five arriving. Nicky Ajose should at least bang in the goals and Russell Slade is at least a wily veteran manager who knows this division well but they're going to need a lot more than this to get a challenge going. Bolton meanwhile will just be glad to be starting this season at all after the financial chaos of the previous term. Phil Parkinson is a good lower league manager but turning things around at the Reebok Stadium is likely to be a two season job at least and consolidation is probably the watchword for this time out.

Also in the mid-table melee, Peterborough are the perennial almost-weres of the third tier and there's little to suggest anything other than another frustrating narrow miss on the play-offs is on the cards for them. Rochdale's best chance at a top six shot may have been last season when they didn't really kick on from the previous season's impressive campaign but they should still comfortably manage a top half finish. Chesterfield's decision to bring Ched Evans out of the football wilderness to provide their firepower up front could go either way but if he can get back on the goal trail then they should improve on last season's disappointing finish. Southend meanwhile did well to consolidate in mid-table last season following promotion via the play-offs but getting much higher is probably beyond them.

Northampton's promotion party was soured a bit by manager Chris Wilder's departure to Sheffield United shortly afterwards but Robert Page is a good replacement and he should be able to guide the Cobblers to mid-table consolidation this time around while Bristol Rovers' upward momentum that saw them get back to back promotions should propel them to safety with room to spare. Shrewsbury disappointed last time out but a change of manager may do them good this time and see them claw their way up to lower mid-table.

Looking at clubs in danger, Swindon underachieved last time and the departure of top scorer Nicky Ajose to Charlton could spell trouble for them. Their near neighbours Oxford did well to get promoted last year but with three key players from that team leaving, Michael Appleton will need to have his wits about him to make sure they don't get sucked into a relegation dogfight. Bury meanwhile are beset by financial problems off the field (not for the first time) and have seen several players leave over the summer. They did well to make mid-table last season but may find the going considerably tougher this time around. Port Vale meanwhile have lost manager Robert Page to Northampton and appointed an inexperienced replacement in Bruno Ribiero who has quickly brought in a raft of signings from the continent. How quickly they adapt to the physical nature of third tier football will be a key factor in whether the Valiants sink or swim this season.

Three clubs, however, look to be in serious danger. Oldham have been battling financial demons for a few years now and the departure of manager John Sheridan to League Two Notts County says a lot about their predicament. With players jumping ship and a motley crew of free agents replacing them, things are looking pretty bleak for the Latics. Fleetwood only just scraped home last season and the pre-season sacking of Steven Pressley after bringing in a dozen new players only to lose six friendlies on the bounce denotes a club in turmoil. His replacement Uwe Rosler will be hoping to repair his reputation after an unsuccessful spell at Leeds but he faces a huge uphill battle to keep the Cod Army in League One with a squad that isn't his own. Finally Wimbledon did brilliantly to power their way into the League Two play-offs and win them last season but with a small squad and even smaller budget, they'll be relying on the famous Dons fighting spirit for survival. But looking at what they're up against, even that may not be enough this time out.

FINAL TABLE

1. Bradford
2. Millwall
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3. Sheff Utd
4. Scunthorpe
5. Coventry
6. Gillingham
7. Walsall
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8. MK Dons
9. Peterborough
10. Bolton
11. Rochdale
12. Charlton
13. Chesterfield
14. Southend
15. Northampton
16. Shrewsbury
17. Bristol Rovers
18. Swindon
19. Bury
20. Oxford
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21. Port Vale
22. Wimbledon
23. Fleetwood
24. Oldham

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