So I've been a bit slack with this thing of late...nothing new there I hear you say. I very nearly didn't bother with the footy predictions this year because, quite honestly, last season was just totally demoralising for me seeing my team (Hartlepool United) get relegated to the Conference without so much as a whimper. However...after a bit of thought, I decided to give it a go. So let's start with League Two. Please note that all of these were done prior to the first matches of the season yesterday...
Looking at the League's basement division, the team who stand out more than any others to me is Luton. They were very unlucky not to make the top three last year, losing out to Blackpool in the play-off semis instead. With a strengthened squad and nobody coming in from either above or below who look up to the same standard as them, they're my tip for the title this season.
Coventry are really too big a club to be in this division...although having said that, people used to say the same about Portsmouth and it took them a good 3-4 seasons to get out of it. However, Mark Robins is a tried and tested lower league manager and if the Sky Blues can pack their stadium out every week then they should have enough to make sure their stay here is a brief one.
For the third automatic promotion place, I'd say it's a toss-up between Mansfield and Swindon. Both have managers who've got promoted from this division before (Steve Evans for the Stags and David Flitcroft for the Robins) and both have made some canny looking signings this summer. I'm going to go for Mansfield to edge it just because they had a good run-in last season while Swindon were tumbling out of League One and I think that'll give them a stronger start which could be crucial.
Exeter finished last season like a house on fire and if they'd managed to keep the squad from that run-in intact then they'd be a shoo-in for automatic promotion in my book. Alas, other clubs have noticed and the inevitable picking off of the decent players duly happened with Ethan Ampadu being pinched by Chelseas, Joel Grant going to Plymouth and Ollie Watkins leaving for Brentford. Long-serving manager Paul Tisdale should still be able to fire them up to a decent finish but I suspect they may get off to a slow start and have to settle for a play-off place.
Joining Exeter and Swindon in the play-offs, I'm gonna go for two East Midlands clubs who've come into this division from opposite directions Chesterfield and Lincoln. Chesterfield had an awful season last time out but manager Gary Caldwell has a good record with getting teams promoted, having led Wigan to the League One title a couple of seasons back and with a summer spent rebuilding the Spireites' squad they should be in a good position to make a push for the top seven. Lincoln, meanwhile, almost hit 100 points on their way to the Conference title and with some handy looking acquisitions to add to that squad they may well fancy their chances at a second successive promotion.
Port Vale, the fourth relegated club, look the least likely of the quartet to bounce straight back but they could be an outside bet for the play-offs. Michael Brown, in his first managerial job, has pretty much assembled a whole new team at Vale Park which could go either way but the new signings look like a respectable enough fourth division team. Everything depends on how quickly they gel for Vale to mount a promotion challenge. Joining them on the fringes of the play-offs are likely to be Cambridge who've made a few decent signings to bolster what was already a capable squad. Unfortunately I think four quite strong clubs coming down is likely to count against them on this occasion and they may have to wait until 2018-19 to make a serious promotion push.
Carlisle and Grimsby both probably had their best chance of promotion last season but the sale of key strikers (Charlie Wyke from the Cumbrians and Omar Bogle from the Mariners) ultimately led to both having horrendous run-ins and costing them promotion. If either of them are serious about making another go of it this time out then a strong start is badly needed. Similarly, Wycombe have invested in a new strike force of Adam El-Abd and Nathan Tyson, two players with good goalscoring records who've been misfiring a lot in recent years and a lot is going to depend on them getting their form back for the Chairboys to mount a promotion challenge.
Colchester, Notts County and Stevenage all finished mid-table last time out and nothing suggests they won't do so again. The Magpies are probably the most likely of the three to mount an outside promotion bid as Kevin Nolan has made some handy looking signings but like Cambridge they look more like a side who are likely to be bothering the top seven in 2018-19 rather than the upcoming campaign. Stevenage did well to make a top half finish last time out after a very poor previous season but going any higher is probably beyond them at this point in time while Colchester will need to quickly find a replacement for 17-goal Chris Porter who has left for Crewe or they could end up struggling. Porter's arrival at Gresty Road along with a few other decent signings should at least ensure the Railwaymen manage an improvement on last year's dismal season although the departure of star defender Jon Guthrie to Walsall will leave a hole at the back that needs fixing.
If Newport can carry their form from last season's run-in when they went from dead and buried to last day survival, over into this season's campaign then they should be capable of a mid-table finish and with a couple of decent looking signings coming in, there's nothing to suggest they won't. Forest Green finally made it up to the League via the Conference play-offs after a series of near-misses and have brought in a large group of new players but with the added burden of financial spending regulations that the Conference doesn't have and a small support base, a lower mid-table finish looks the most likely outcome for them.
Looking at potential strugglers, Barnet will once again be relying on John Akinde to come up with the goals to keep them afloat, Accrington suffered a poor end to last season and were lucky that they'd already got the points to secure safety. Yeovil's already small squad has been hit by a number of departures and while Morecambe have at least managed to put themselves on a firm financial footing after a few years of uncertainty but now need to concentrate on building up their threadbare squad.
I'm going to plump for Cheltenham and Crawley as being the two unlucky clubs this season though. Cheltenham struggled badly in their first season back in the league after winning the Conference in 2016 and with no eye-catching new signings, they look to be in real danger this time around. Similarly, Crawley have been hovering around the trapdoor for a few seasons now and the departure of top scorer James Collins to Luton could well be a death blow for them. Whoever the relegated clubs end up being, I'm hoping that one of the two teams coming up to replace them is my lot, Hartlepool. But I'm not holding my breath...
FINAL TABLE
1. Luton Town
2. Coventry City
3. Mansfield Town
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4. Swindon Town
5. Exeter City
6. Chesterfield
7. Lincoln City
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8. Cambridge United
9. Port Vale
10. Carlisle United
11. Wycombe Wanderers
12. Notts County
13. Grimsby Town
14. Colchester United
15. Stevenage Borough
16. Crewe Alexandra
17. Newport County
18. Forest Green Rovers
19. Barnet
20. Accrington Stanley
21. Yeovil Town
22. Morecambe
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23. Cheltenham Town
24. Crawley Town
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