Sunday, 6 August 2017

League One Predictions 2017-18

Last season I went for Bradford to win this division and, guess what, I'm doing so again. Unlucky to lose in the play-off final to Millwall, they've kept the nucleus of their squad intact and should have enough to not have to worry about the end of season lottery this time out.

Joining them, I'm going to throw a curveball in and predict Southend to grab the second automatic promotion place. They ended last season well and with the arrival of Michael Kightly and Michael Turner, two players who are way too good for this division, they might just be the surprise package of the season.

A lot of pundits seem to be predicting the relegated duo of Blackburn and Wigan to walk the division but as several clubs (Leeds and both Sheffield teams to name but three) will ruefully tell you, League One is a difficult division for bigger clubs to get out of if they're unprepared for it. Tony Mowbray will clearly want to atone for last season when he suffered the ignominy of managing two relegated clubs (Blackburn and Coventry) in the same season and Rovers have made some interesting looking signings including Bradley Dack and Peter Whittingham plus they have the goals of Danny Graham to call upon but I think this season may be a bit of a learning curve for them and will end in a play-off place rather than automatic promotion. The same goes for Wigan who walked this division two years ago only to tumble straight back down after a disastrous 2016-17 campaign. New manager Paul Cook has reached the play-offs before at this level with Chesterfield but with a tough rebuilding job going on, I can't see the Latics making the top two this time out.

Cook's old club Portsmouth have a new manager in Kenny Jackett and a big money takeover giving them a sizeable transfer war chest and have to be up there among the play-off contenders. Meanwhile Peterborough have been the division's perennial nearly-men for a few years now but the signings of Ricky Miller and Danny Lloyd, both of whom hit twenty plus goals in non-league last season, could be the catalyst they need to spark a play-off push this season.

Scunthorpe and Fleetwood both looked in with a shout of automatic promotion last season but poor run-ins condemned both to defeat in the play-off semi-finals and I suspect their best chance may now have passed. Fleetwood also need to cope with the departure of top scorer David Ball to Rotherham and will be hoping that new signing Conor McAleny can fill his boots quickly.

MK Dons should improve on last season's disappointing finish but I think there's just too many better teams in the division this year for them to breach the Top 6 and they may have to wait until 2018-19 to mount a serious promotion challenge. Similarly Doncaster and Plymouth who came up last season, will probably be happy to consolidate with a mid-table finish. Rotherham ended up relegated by a country mile from the Championship but their squad at least looks solid enough to stabilise in the third tier and ensure the rot doesn't set in any further. Bristol Rovers did well to make the top half last time out but it's difficult to see them progressing much further while Bury are the division's great unknown quantity with manager Lee Clark (who's tasted success at this level with Huddersfield in years gone by) assembling practically a whole new squad over the summer. There's some interesting signings in there but they may be another team who will have to wait until the season after this one to challenge properly.

Looking a bit further down the table, Rochdale's best chance for promotion has probably passed by now and with the division looking a bit stronger this season, their final position may suffer accordingly. The same could be said for Northampton who look unlikely to improve on last season's 16th place finish. You have to feel sorry for Karl Robinson at Charlton who's a good manager at this level but with a pantomime going on off the field, it's very difficult to see the Addicks achieving anything higher than a mid-table finish this time out. Oxford, meanwhile, have suffered the loss of manager Michael Appleton to take the assistant's job at Leicester and have replaced him with an unknown in former Leeds and Swansea assistant Pep Clotet who will have to find his feet quickly especially with the departures of captain John Lundstram to Sheffield United and free-scoring Conor McAleny to Fleetwood.

Oldham looked dead and buried for most of last season but the return of manager John Sheridan following an unsuccessful spell at Notts County proved to be the catalyst for them to stage the big great escape story at this level. The Latics are likely to struggle again but Sheridan should fire them up enough to ensure survival for another season at least. Walsall go into the season with a young team who will have to work as a unit to stay on the right side of the relegation line but they should just squeak it.

Looking at my relegation choices then, Blackpool did very well to bounce back from League Two at the first attempt but with the chaos off the field shadowing progress on it, they may find it difficult to avoid yo-yoing back to the bottom flight. Manager Gary Bowyer has made a few decent signings but the atmosphere at Bloomfield Road right now isn't helping anybody and changes need to be made off the pitch before the Tangerines can start progressing on it. Wimbledon did well to power their way to a mid-table finish last time out but with several of their better players having left for bigger clubs over the summer, they may find this season a lot tougher while Gillingham and Shrewsbury both only just squeaked home last time out and with three of the clubs coming up looking good enough for a top half finish (not to mention the Gills losing star midfielder Bradley Dack to Blackburn), they may not be so lucky this time around...

FINAL TABLE

1. Bradford City
2. Southend United
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3. Blackburn Rovers
4. Portsmouth
5. Wigan Athletic
6. Peterborough United
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7. Scunthorpe United
8. MK Dons
9. Doncaster Rovers
10. Bristol Rovers
11. Bury
12. Fleetwood Town
13. Rotherham United
14. Plymouth Argyle
15. Rochdale
16. Charlton Athletic
17. Oxford United
18. Northampton Town
19. Oldham Athletic
20. Walsall
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21. Blackpool
22. Wimbledon
23. Gillingham
24. Shrewsbury Town

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