Sunday, 6 August 2017

Premiership Predictions 2017-18

I really don't like to say this as every time I see a club effectively buy the Premiership title a little part of my soul dies but it looks like a straight fight between Manchester City and Chelsea for the big one this season. Chelsea did well last season to rebound from a very poor 2015-16 to win the title but City have been spending big and with Pep Guardiola now having a full season's worth of Premiership experience under his belt, I suspect that they may narrowly pip the Blues to the title this year.

Both Liverpool and Manchester United look to be improving season upon season and I'm going for them to complete the top four. Jurgen Klopp now looks to have a Liverpool side that's definitively his and this stability should see them improve on last season (although it goes without saying that this prediction is based on Coutinho staying with them). Jose Mourinho meanwhile is getting there with United and they should end their absence from the top four in 2017 especially with Romalu Lukaku's goals now added to their front line.

Things look less rosy in North London. Tottenham have done well for the last two seasons but moving away from White Hart Lane right across to Wembley for the 2017-18 campaign plus the departure of Kyle Walker to Man City and a lack of incoming transfers looks like it's really going to hurt them. A top four finish this time out would arguably be even more of an impressive achievement than last season's second place. They still look likely to finish above Arsenal again though where the chaos off the field with the fans in open revolt against Arsene Wenger means I'm predicting a difficult season for the Gunners.

As always, there'll be a number of teams who don't look likely to breach the Top 5 but aren't really in any danger of relegation either. I'm going for Everton to claim their customary 7th place finish but with some good signings including Michael Keane, Wayne Rooney, Jordan Pickford and possibly Gylfi Sigurdsson as well, they may just have Spurs and Arsenal looking nervously over their shoulders. It's a bit difficult to call things with most of the teams in the mid-table zone where positives and negatives seem to be balancing each other out for most clubs. Southampton, despite a change of manager, still look to have a good enough squad to scrape the top half although the departure of Jay Rodriguez to West Brom not to mention the potential loss of Virgil Van Dijk to Liverpool could be potential spanners in the works. I'm therefore predicting Bournemouth to overtake their south coast rivals this season - the capture of Jermain Defoe is a smart move and could actually see them bettering last season's impressive 9th place finish. West Ham have made some interesting signings in Marko Arnautovic, Javier Hernandez, Pablo Zabaleta and Joe Hart. The big if though is whether they can finally put their teething problems at the Olympic Stadium to one side. If so they should be capable of a top half finish.

Stoke seem to be being tipped as potential strugglers by some but the arrival of Darren Fletcher should add some steel to their team and despite the loss of Arnautovic (which they need to address before the transfer window closes), I reckon they should manage mid-table safety. West Brom had an awful run-in last season and could be an outside bet to struggle if they don't get off to a good start. That said, there should be enough quality in their squad to ensure that they can stay afloat and if Jay Rodriguez can get among the goals after signing from Southampton, they should be good for mid-table. By contrast, Leicester had a strong finish last time out but with Riyadh Mahrez looking likely to move on before the transfer window shuts, they could find the going harder this time around. Craig Shakespeare has his hands full in his first managerial role and a few bad results could see the Foxes in a relegation fight.

Newcastle did well to bounce back to the Premiership at the first time of asking but the lack of any serious inbound transfer traffic at St James' Park is a bit worrying. The presence of Rafa Benitez at the helm should mean that they aren't unduly affected by the relegation dogfight but they may need to be careful. Similarly, Crystal Palace's appointment of Frank De Boer as manager could go either way. If he can rediscover the spark from his Ajax days then the Eagles should be okay. If on the other hand, his disastrous spell at Inter Milan wasn't just a blip then another season battling against the drop may beckon. One thing's for certain, with four first-teamers leaving and only two new players coming in, Palace need to start spending and quick.

On the fringes of the danger zone, Burnley scrapped their way to safety last season and with a few capable looking signings they should do so again although I can't see them improving much on last season's 16th place. Replacing Andre Gray's goals has to be the number one priority for the Clarets before the transfer window shuts. Brighton will be relying on Chris Hughton's previous Prem success at Newcastle and their players making the step up to ensure their first run in the Prem for 34 years isn't a short lived one but they should just to say scrape it.

Looking at my tips for the bottom three, Swansea looked to have pulled themselves clear of the bottom three under Paul Clement only for a late season collapse to almost suck them in again and they may not be so lucky this time around especially with the imminent departure of Gylfi Sigurdsson. Likewise, Watford faded badly at the end of the season and have changed managers yet again with former Hull boss Marco Silva the latest incumbent in one of the most unstable jobs in the top two divisions. Hornets fans will be hoping he can hit the ground running if they're to survive this time out. Finally, as much as I would love to see Huddersfield stay up (and I do believe there's an outside chance as they've spent big on some decent signings and have a manager in David Wagner who's going to relish having a crack at the Prem), I just think that the class gap is just going to be a bit too wide for them. But I seriously hope they prove me wrong...

FINAL TABLE

1. Manchester City
2. Chelsea
3. Liverpool
4. Manchester United
5. Tottenham Hotspur
6. Arsenal
7. Everton
8. Bournemouth
9. West Ham United
10. Southampton
11. Stoke City
12. West Bromwich Albion
13. Leicester City
14. Newcastle United
15. Crystal Palace
16. Burnley
17. Brighton & Hove Albion
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18. Watford
19. Huddersfield Town
20. Swansea City

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