The Championship, as I seem to find myself saying every year when I do this thing, is usually the most even of the four divisions and therefore notoriously difficult to predict.
Nevertheless, looking at the teams near the top last season, taking all factors into consideration including squad turnover, general form, how likely the relegated teams are to challenge and...oh look, I'm sorry but I'm just gonna say it - as much as it pains me to do so having grown up in the city and knowing how utterly unbearable their fans can be on the rare occasions their team enjoys success, I'm going for Leeds to win the division this year. With most of last season's side still intact and more crucially Marcelo Bielsa staying on for another year, they look just that bit stronger than the rest of the pack.
West Brom should be well placed to ensure they make it back to the Premiership at the second time of asking as well - Slaven Bilic looks like a decent managerial appointment and the Baggies ended last season strongly before eventually coming to grief against Aston Villa in the play-offs. Although the loss of Jay Rodriguez and Dwight Gayle could count against them, their strength last season was their mean defence and this should see them over the line.
Discount Neil Warnock and Cardiff at your peril though - as the veteran manager limbers up for what will allegedly be his final season, you suspect he'd like nothing better than to atone for last season's relegation by bouncing the Bluebirds straight back into the Prem. With a number of new signings and their better players by and large staying on, they should be well in with a shout of the top two but I think they may have to do it the hard way via the play-offs.
Bristol City and Nottingham Forest both missed out by an agonisingly close margin on the top six last season and should go one better this time out. The former have strengthened what was already a pretty effective team while the multi-millionaire board at the City Ground will be looking for some return on their investment after last season's disappointment.
For the final play-off place, take your pick between Derby or Fulham. The former's defeat in the play-off final was made all the more galling by the departure of manager Frank Lampard to Chelsea and most of the loan players they built last season's success on returning to their parent clubs. However, Philip Cocu looks an interesting appointment and if he can fill the gaps in the Rams' squad then another top six push isn't out of the question. Fulham, meanwhile, only really started playing after their relegation was confirmed last season and their late run led to caretaker boss Scott Parker being offered the job full time...and then losing his first game in charge 4-1 to Newcastle. Fulham have plenty of firepower up front but look weak defensively and I think this may ultimately see them just miss out on the top six.
Brentford could be in with an outside shot at the play-offs after a strong finish last season and the capture of midfield general Pontus Jansson from Leeds while Huddersfield will probably be wandering around like plane crash survivors after last season's relegation disaster. Nevertheless, Jan Siewert has added some decent looking Championship players to his side and they could sneak a play-off push if they get off to a good start. But it's a big if.
Middlesbrough were another to miss out on the play-offs after their form deserted them in the later stages of the season and with Jonathan Woodgate taking on his first managerial job and the summer's transfer business on Teesside being somewhat low-key, it's difficult to see them improving on last season's 8th place finish. Stoke, meanwhile, will be looking to rebound from last season's disappointing finish but it may take more than one season for Nathan Jones to stamp his mark on his goal-shy team.
Blackburn and Preston both finished comfortably in mid-table last time out and should do so again while Swansea and Sheffield Wednesday both go into the season having seen their managers poached by Prem clubs (Brighton taking Graham Potter from the Swans and Steve Bruce leaving the Owls for Newcastle), not to mention several of Swansea's key players from last season being poached by clubs in the division above. Both face a rebuilding job and most likely a mid-table finish.
QPR and Reading have both been down among the dead men for the last few seasons but may do a little better this time out. Mark Warburton is a manager with a good record in the Championship and with some useful signings should guide the Hoops towards a mid-table finish while Charlie Adam and Michael Morrison represent the sort of experience that the Royals desperately need.
Luton and Barnsley have both seen their squads raided following promotion from League One but should just about have enough firepower to keep the relegation dogfight at arm's length unless something bad happens. Of those more likely to struggle, Hull have had a quiet summer on the transfer market and could find their league position suffering accordingly while Charlton did well to get promoted via the play-offs last time out but with their off-field issues seemingly no nearer to resolution must know that they're in for a fight to stay up.
For my money though, the bottom three looks likely to consist of Millwall who sailed perilously close to the wind last time and despite a busy summer of transfers don't look significantly stronger this time out, Birmingham who've seen star striker Che Adams leave for Southampton and have replaced Garry Monk as manager with Pep Clotet, a man last seen being fired by Oxford in the division below, and Wigan who only just scraped home last time out and have had a worryingly quiet summer transfer-wise. But like I say, it's an even division this and all of the above should bear in mind that just a few wins can sometimes make the difference between bottom three and safely in mid-table in the Championship...
TABLE PREDICTION
1. Leeds
2. West Bromwich Albion
------------------------------
3. Cardiff City
4. Bristol City
5. Nottingham Forest
6. Derby County
------------------------------
7. Fulham
8. Brentford
9. Huddersfield Town
10. Middlesbrough
11. Stoke City
12. Blackburn Rovers
13. Preston North End
14. Swansea City
15. Sheffield Wednesday
16. QPR
17. Luton Town
18. Reading
19. Hull City
20. Barnsley
21. Charlton Athletic
------------------------------
22. Millwall
23. Birmingham City
24. Wigan Athletic
No comments:
Post a Comment