Last season proved if anything that maybe the Premiership isn't always as easy predict as we sometimes think it is. To wit - your correspondant wrote of Leicester that he thought that they could easily prove a surprise package under Claudio Ranieri...and make the top half. Well, that was an understatement if ever there was one. Meanwhile, my tip (and most people's) for the title Chelsea self-destructed quite spectacularly and limped their way to a 9th place finish, their worst for over a decade.
So what of this season? Well, I'm going to stick my neck out, go against the flow and say that this will be the season that
Arsenal finally end their ten year wait for a title. The fact that they came in second last time around despite being supremely inconsistent highlights the quality of their squad and although pre-season transfer activity has been fairly quiet at the Emirates, Arsene Wenger normally tends to leave his deals until late anyhow. There's a big "if" attached to this though - the Gunners need to stay injury free which has been their downfall the last few seasons. Can they manage it? Some would say they're due a season where things go right on that front for a change...
North London neighbours
Tottenham should run them close again - they did brilliantly to finish third last season and keep the pressure on Leicester until the very late stages and have kept last season's squad intact. As long as the likes of Harry Kane and Dele Alli don't suffer a hangover from England's disastrous Euro campaign, there's no reason they can't challenge again.
Stung by last season's failure,
Manchester United and
Manchester City have both made sweeping and expensive changes but as last season proved, mass spending doesn't necessarily guarantee you the title anymore. Jose Mourinho's appointment on the red side of Manchester could go either way but it took him two seasons to turn a fading Chelsea side into champions a few years ago and I suspect it may be the same at Old Trafford this time out. That said, they should comfortably make the Champions League places.
Meanwhile on the blue side of the city, Pep Guardiola is a very ambitious appointment by City following the departure of Manuel Pellegrini but he's untested in the Prem and for every Mourinho that joins the Premier League and gets it right first time, there's a Phil Scolari or Andre Villas-Boas who come in with a great reputation abroad but never quite adapt. Guardiola has been splashing the cash like there's no tomorrow but I get the impression that it could go either way for City this season - either they'll walk it or things'll go wrong and they'll come in fourth again. My money's on the latter.
Leicester's title win last season was a story to warm all but the coldest of football fans' hearts but with an added Champions League campaign to occupy them this season and the test of having to stay injury-free for a second consecutive season, a repeat may just be beyond them unfortunately. Nevertheless, confidence will be sky high at the Walkers Stadium going into this season and it should propel them to at least a UEFA Cup place.
Jose Mourinho paid the price for last season's failure at
Chelsea and with Antonio Conte stepping into the hotseat, expectations will be higher this time around. However, confidence is likely to be low at Stamford Bridge right now and the half dozen or so big money new recruits will need to settle in fast. They may be in with an outside shot of the Top 4 but I suspect they may stall just outside it.
West Ham's best chance of upsetting the apple cart with a Top 4 finish may have come and gone last season but they've managed to keep a hold of pretty much all of the squad that did so well under Slavan Bilic and added a couple more signings. They should finish well inside the top half.
Liverpool underachieved badly even after Jurgen Klopp replaced Brendan Rodgers in the hot seat last season and given that their big summer signing is the massively inconsistent Georgino Wijnaldum from relegated Newcastle, I'm not so sure that this season will be any better for them. Klopp may need a good Cup run to keep the Anfield faithful on his side this season if things start to backfire.
Across Stanley Park,
Everton's recruitment of Ronald Koeman should reinvigorate them a bit but
Southampton, the club who he left the Toffees for, not only have to rebuild but also have a UEFA Cup campaign to test the fitness levels of their relatively small squad. They should just scrape a top half finish but no higher.
It's difficult to see
Stoke and
West Brom doing anything other than their usual mid-table spot (though the former's capture of Berahino from the latter should be interesting).
Sunderland have appointed a relatively safe pair of hands in David Moyes to replace England-bound Sam Allardyce and should achieve safety a bit more comfortably this time out. Of the three promoted clubs,
Middlesbrough look best equipped to survive at this level with Aitor Karanka using his connections across the continent to bring in almost a whole new squad. How quickly they gel will be key to Boro's success but if all goes to plan then they shouldn't be unduly worried about an instant return to the Championship.
Looking at those likely to struggle, I think it'll be three from the following six to face the dreaded drop this season.
Bournemouth did well to battle their way to safety in their first season in the Prem but the departure of Matt Ritchie to Newcastle is likely to hurt them. They'll be hoping that Jordan Ibe will be able to find his scoring boots quickly following his move to the south coast from Liverpool.
Burnley at least have the relative luxury of having been in the Prem fairly recently and should know what's required to battle their way to safety this time around but with a small squad they'll be hoping to stay injury free and that the likes of Andre Gray can continue the form they showed in the Championship last season.
Swansea, meanwhile, drifted backwards badly last season and with several players having taken part in Wales' Herculean European Championship adventure and no doubt feeling the after-effects, it could be a testing season for them.
Watford and
Crystal Palace both went into freefall at the tail end of last season and that's often a bad omen for the following campaign (as Newcastle fans will doubtless regretfully testify). Palace's capture of Andros Townsend from the relegated Geordies is a good signing but they've lost Dwight Gayle, one of their better players, in exchange. They badly need a good start or it could be a very long hard winter at Selhurst Park. Watford, meanwhile, have changed managers yet again (now on their fourth in three seasons) and the lack of stability could well come back to bite them this season.
Compared to
Hull, however, Watford look like a relatively stable outfit - with Steve Bruce leaving a matter of weeks after helping the Tigers to promotion via the play-offs and no incoming transfers to speak of, the situation at the KC Stadium looks very messy to say the least. Barring a miracle, unfortunately it looks like this is going to be a very short stay indeed in the Premiership for them. But hey, a lot of people were saying that about Leicester last time out so you never know...
FINAL TABLE
1.
Arsenal
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2.
Tottenham
3.
Manchester Utd
4.
Manchester City
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5.
Leicester
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6.
Chelsea
7.
West Ham
8.
Liverpool
9.
Everton
10.
Southampton
11.
Stoke
12.
Middlesbrough
13.
West Brom
14.
Sunderland
15.
Bournemouth
16.
Burnley
17.
Swansea
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18.
Watford
19.
Crystal Palace
20.
Hull
