As always at this time of year, I'm going to put my Mystic Mug hat on and do some predictions for the new football season. Starting with League Two today and with each of the divisions further up following between now and Saturday.
Anyway, League Two...given that my prediction for the title last season Notts County ended up leaving the division the other way, there's a good argument that this should all probably be taken with a pinch of salt. However, I'm going to say that Walsall will take the title this season. With a new manager in Darrell Clarke who's got promoted from this division with Bristol Rovers previously and a revitalised squad, they've got all the hallmarks of a team determined to make their stay in the basement division a short one.
Which also goes for the other three relegated clubs - Plymouth, Scunthorpe and Bradford have all done what they needed to do following relegation by bringing in managers with a track record of being promoted from this division before (Ryan Lowe with Plymouth, Paul Hurst with Scunthorpe and Gary Bowyer with Bradford) and have had the necessary clearout of the dead wood. I'm going to go with Plymouth and Scunny to take the other two promotion spots and City to be in the play-offs.
The arrival of four strong sides coming down is quite a rare thing and you can sense the disappointment among the clubs who challenged last time out and were probably hoping for a weaker division to go one better this time. Mansfield should really be up there again with Nicky Maynard, top scorer for Bury as they were promoted from this level last time out, looking a useful signing although the appointment of an inexperienced manager in John Dempster could potentially backfire on them. Exeter and Swindon have both strengthened after frustratingly narrow misses on the top 7 last time out and should go one better this time.
At the other end of the equation, Newport and Forest Green both did very well to make the play-offs last time out but the perennial risk of coming from nowhere in the promotion race only to fall at the final hurdle is that your squad inevitably gets raided by clubs in higher divisions as both have found out to their cost. Don't discount either of them entirely but I think they may fall just short this time around.
Salford were promoted into the League with quite some fanfare but as others who've used their big budget to go up from the Conference before them have found out, League Two is a different game with the transfer window system meaning you can't just use a "quick fix" solution if you suddenly pick up injuries. Expect them to finish upper mid-table then push on for the Top 7 in 2020-21. Leyton Orient, who came up alongside them, had their summer thrown into disarray by the tragic sudden passing of Justin Edinburgh, the architect of their renaissance, and a lot will depend on how they respond to that. They could be an outside shout for promotion but I'm more inclined to go with mid-table for them.
Colchester and Carlisle both missed out narrowly last time out but with no real eye-catching signings at either and a stronger division this year, I think both have to be put down as outsiders. Ditto Northampton who pulled round after the appointment of Keith Curle as manager mid-season but look a little short of quality to make the play-offs. Stevenage did well to finish 10th last time out but with one of the smallest budgets in the division, it's difficult to see them progressing much beyond that. A little further down, Grimsby don't give the impression of being likely to deviate much from last season's mid-table finish while Port Vale have at least brought in a few decent looking signings that should steer them a bit further away from the drop zone this time out.
Looking at likely strugglers, there are certain clubs who you can almost certainly predict will be down at the wrong end of the table - Cheltenham, Morecambe and Crawley always seem to finish around the bottom third of this division and with no particularly eye-catching arrivals at any of them, the coming season looks set to bring more of the same. Crewe did well to make the top half last season but with a number of their better players picked off by bigger clubs they're likely to find it much harder going this time out while the managerial circus at Oldham with incoming boss Laurent Banide being their fourth boss in 12 months, suggests a club badly needing to stabilise if it isn't to end up in a relegation dogfight.
Without wanting to sound too lazy though, the two clubs who finished just above the relegation places last time out look to be the two most likely to go through the trapdoor this time. Cambridge had an awful season just gone and with several first team mainstays departing and one of the smallest squads in the division, Colin Calderwood is going to have to work miracles to keep them afloat this time around. Meanwhile, Sol Campbell did brilliantly to keep Macclesfield in the division after taking over at Moss Rose mid-season but with the club in dire financial straights and the almost farcical situation of the players suing the board for unpaid wages, he's likely to find it even harder this time out. If the Silkmen can hold on to their highly rated manager then they've a fighting chance of survival but if, as looks probable, he gets tempted away by a larger team then it's very likely to spell doom for them.
FINAL TABLE PREDICTION
1. Walsall
2. Scunthorpe United
3. Plymouth Argyle
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4. Bradford City
5. Mansfield Town
6. Exeter City
7. Swindon Town
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8. Colchester United
9. Forest Green Rovers
10. Carlisle United
11. Salford City
12. Northampton Town
13. Newport County
14. Leyton Orient
15. Stevenage
16. Grimsby Town
17. Port Vale
18. Crewe Alexandra
19. Cheltenham Town
20. Oldham Athletic
21. Morecambe
22. Crawley Town
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23. Cambridge United
24. Macclesfield Town
