Saturday 3 August 2019

Premier League Predictions 2019-20

When it comes to the Premier League, you can pretty much divide your predictions into four categories - title challengers (two), clubs challenging for the Champions' League places (four), those set to finish around midway (about four or five) and those facing a relegation scrap (pretty much everybody else).

So let's start with the big question - Liverpool or Manchester City for the title this season? Well, City have got to slip up some time and Liverpool were desperately unlucky last season (only losing once all season and still finishing second is taking the rip frankly) so I'm gonna say that this time it'll be City who hit a fleeting patch of bad form somewhere that ultimately costs them by a point or two. But realistically, I think we all know this one could go either way.

Of the pack behind them, Tottenham should clinch third place without too much worry as they look the most stable out of this group of clubs by some distance. Chelsea did well to recover and snatch third place last time around but with Maurizio Sarri leaving over the summer and Frank Lampard coming in, I think they're unlikely to repeat the feat this time out. Lampard will doubtless be given time by the board but this season may be a learning curve for him which could open the door for Arsenal, fresh off a season of transition under Unai Emery, to sneak back into the top four if they can find the consistency that was their main downfall last time out.

Only at Manchester United could you get a manager winning his first nine games in charge only to have the pundits calling for his head five defeats later. I still think if the Reds show some persistence with Ole Gunnar Soljskaer then they should start rising up the table again but with chaos reigning behind the scenes at the moment (not least surrounding Paul Pogba's future), a sixth-place finish looks likely again.

Among the mid-table pack, Wolves did brilliantly to finish 7th last time out but with an added UEFA Cup campaign to worry about this season, you could forgive them for casting a nervous eye at what happened to Burnley last season. They should still manage a top half finish but there are likely to be a few clubs with less games to worry about poised to nudge past them, chiefly Everton whose "steady as she goes" approach under Marco Silva means they're usually there or thereabouts. Leicester were a club revitalised under Brendan Rodgers last time out and should comfortably grab a top half finish while West Ham could improve as well with Manuel Pellegrini now having a full season under his belt in East London despite the departure of Marko Arnautovic.

Watford finally seem to have achieved the stability that's been lacking at Vicarage Road recently and should manage a comfortable mid-table finish this time out while Burnley, facing a quieter season than last time without a European campaign to worry about, should be breathing a bit easier this season as well. From thereon downwards, the remaining eight clubs are the ones who are likely to be most worried about a relegation dogfight and as always in these situations, the first clubs you find yourselves looking at are the three promoted ones.

However, I'm going to stick my neck out and say that I think Norwich, Sheffield United and Aston Villa will all survive. The key is looking at how much low-hanging fruit (ie established Prem teams who look likely to struggle) there is and make sure that you pick up the maximum points from these games and this season there looks to be a few teams who fall into this category.

Looking at the three new boys, both the Blades and Villans come up having done a full overhaul of their squads and with managers (Chris Wilder and Dean Smith) getting their first taste of Premiership life. They'll be keen to avoid repeating what happened to Fulham last time out but Smith and Wilder are both good at getting their teams playing with a suitably blood-and-thunder approach and, as Huddersfield did a couple of years ago, might be in with a good shout of bludgeoning their way to safety. Norwich, with a side playing good football under Daniel Farke, could do even better although they've been comparatively quiet in the transfer market over the summer.

Southampton and Bournemouth could be forgiven for looking nervously over their shoulders at this situation. The Saints have been sailing perilously close to the bottom three in recent years but the appointment of Ralf Hasenhuttl last season did seem to stabilise them a bit and with a few new signings this season they may face less of a nail-biting experience this time around. Bournemouth, meanwhile, have been drifting backwards for a while and could be in trouble but I think they should just scrape home.

My tips for the bottom three then - Brighton had an atrocious end to last season winning just four games after the New Year and have changed managers with Graham Potter joining from Swansea in place of the departing Chris Hughton. Potter did well to transform a club in chaos into a solid young side at the Liberty Stadium but he's now facing a far bigger challenge at the Withdean Stadium and will need all his wits about him to guide the Seagulls to safety this time out.

Crystal Palace have managed mid-table safety over the last couple of seasons mainly through Roy Hodgson's ability to play the loan market well but with Aaron Wan-Bissaka gone to Manchester United and Wilfred Zaha likely to join him on the way out of Selhurst Park before the end of the transfer window, this season looks like being a much harder slog for the Eagles. If Hodgson can somehow persuade Zaha to stay then they've got a fighting chance of beating the drop but if, as looks likely, he moves on then it could be a long hard winter at Selhurst Park.

Finally, where do you even start with Newcastle? With Rafael Benitez's patience finally running out and the appointment of Steve Bruce (a man who's spent most of the last few years managing in the Championship) to replace him as manager going down like a cup of cold sick among the St James Park faithful not to mention three key players leaving and the continuing presence of the odious Mike Ashley as chairman, these are worrying times indeed on Tyneside. The Geordies' best bet for survival probably hinges on a takeover happening some time soon but given Ashley's reluctance to surrender control of the club, I wouldn't bet on it. Either way, a turbulent season and yet another sojourn in the Championship looks to be in store for them...

FINAL TABLE PREDICTION

1. Liverpool
2. Manchester City
3. Tottenham Hotspur
4. Arsenal
5. Chelsea
6. Manchester United
7. Everton
8. Leicester City
9. West Ham United
10. Wolverhampton Wanderers
11. Watford
12. Burnley
13. Southampton
14. Norwich City
15. Bournemouth
16. Aston Villa
17. Sheffield United
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18. Brighton & Hove Albion
19. Crystal Palace
20. Newcastle United

Friday 2 August 2019

Championship Predictions 2019-20

The Championship, as I seem to find myself saying every year when I do this thing, is usually the most even of the four divisions and therefore notoriously difficult to predict.

Nevertheless, looking at the teams near the top last season, taking all factors into consideration including squad turnover, general form, how likely the relegated teams are to challenge and...oh look, I'm sorry but I'm just gonna say it - as much as it pains me to do so having grown up in the city and knowing how utterly unbearable their fans can be on the rare occasions their team enjoys success, I'm going for Leeds to win the division this year. With most of last season's side still intact and more crucially Marcelo Bielsa staying on for another year, they look just that bit stronger than the rest of the pack.

West Brom should be well placed to ensure they make it back to the Premiership at the second time of asking as well - Slaven Bilic looks like a decent managerial appointment and the Baggies ended last season strongly before eventually coming to grief against Aston Villa in the play-offs. Although the loss of Jay Rodriguez and Dwight Gayle could count against them, their strength last season was their mean defence and this should see them over the line.

Discount Neil Warnock and Cardiff at your peril though - as the veteran manager limbers up for what will allegedly be his final season, you suspect he'd like nothing better than to atone for last season's relegation by bouncing the Bluebirds straight back into the Prem. With a number of new signings and their better players by and large staying on, they should be well in with a shout of the top two but I think they may have to do it the hard way via the play-offs.

Bristol City and Nottingham Forest both missed out by an agonisingly close margin on the top six last season and should go one better this time out. The former have strengthened what was already a pretty effective team while the multi-millionaire board at the City Ground will be looking for some return on their investment after last season's disappointment.

For the final play-off place, take your pick between Derby or Fulham. The former's defeat in the play-off final was made all the more galling by the departure of manager Frank Lampard to Chelsea and most of the loan players they built last season's success on returning to their parent clubs. However, Philip Cocu looks an interesting appointment and if he can fill the gaps in the Rams' squad then another top six push isn't out of the question. Fulham, meanwhile, only really started playing after their relegation was confirmed last season and their late run led to caretaker boss Scott Parker being offered the job full time...and then losing his first game in charge 4-1 to Newcastle. Fulham have plenty of firepower up front but look weak defensively and I think this may ultimately see them just miss out on the top six.

Brentford could be in with an outside shot at the play-offs after a strong finish last season and the capture of midfield general Pontus Jansson from Leeds while Huddersfield will probably be wandering around like plane crash survivors after last season's relegation disaster. Nevertheless, Jan Siewert has added some decent looking Championship players to his side and they could sneak a play-off push if they get off to a good start. But it's a big if.

Middlesbrough were another to miss out on the play-offs after their form deserted them in the later stages of the season and with Jonathan Woodgate taking on his first managerial job and the summer's transfer business on Teesside being somewhat low-key, it's difficult to see them improving on last season's 8th place finish. Stoke, meanwhile, will be looking to rebound from last season's disappointing finish but it may take more than one season for Nathan Jones to stamp his mark on his goal-shy team.

Blackburn and Preston both finished comfortably in mid-table last time out and should do so again while Swansea and Sheffield Wednesday both go into the season having seen their managers poached by Prem clubs (Brighton taking Graham Potter from the Swans and Steve Bruce leaving the Owls for Newcastle), not to mention several of Swansea's key players from last season being poached by clubs in the division above. Both face a rebuilding job and most likely a mid-table finish.

QPR and Reading have both been down among the dead men for the last few seasons but may do a little better this time out. Mark Warburton is a manager with a good record in the Championship and with some useful signings should guide the Hoops towards a mid-table finish while Charlie Adam and Michael Morrison represent the sort of experience that the Royals desperately need.

Luton and Barnsley have both seen their squads raided following promotion from League One but should just about have enough firepower to keep the relegation dogfight at arm's length unless something bad happens. Of those more likely to struggle, Hull have had a quiet summer on the transfer market and could find their league position suffering accordingly while Charlton did well to get promoted via the play-offs last time out but with their off-field issues seemingly no nearer to resolution must know that they're in for a fight to stay up.

For my money though, the bottom three looks likely to consist of Millwall who sailed perilously close to the wind last time and despite a busy summer of transfers don't look significantly stronger this time out, Birmingham who've seen star striker Che Adams leave for Southampton and have replaced Garry Monk as manager with Pep Clotet, a man last seen being fired by Oxford in the division below, and Wigan who only just scraped home last time out and have had a worryingly quiet summer transfer-wise. But like I say, it's an even division this and all of the above should bear in mind that just a few wins can sometimes make the difference between bottom three and safely in mid-table in the Championship...

TABLE PREDICTION

1. Leeds
2. West Bromwich Albion
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3. Cardiff City
4. Bristol City
5. Nottingham Forest
6. Derby County
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7. Fulham
8. Brentford
9. Huddersfield Town
10. Middlesbrough
11. Stoke City
12. Blackburn Rovers
13. Preston North End
14. Swansea City
15. Sheffield Wednesday
16. QPR
17. Luton Town
18. Reading
19. Hull City
20. Barnsley
21. Charlton Athletic
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22. Millwall
23. Birmingham City
24. Wigan Athletic

Thursday 1 August 2019

League One Predictions 2019-20

League One was a strange division last season, that's for sure. With a small group of teams gunning for the top six places and a good half of the division in a relegation scrap until the final couple of games, this is a difficult league to predict.

One team definitely stands head and shoulders above other contenders at the top of the table though and that's Portsmouth. Unlucky to lose out in the play-offs last season, Pompey have kept the nucleus of last season's squad intact and made a few signings to fill the odd gap and should be a good bet for the title this season.

Rotherham were unlucky to go straight back down from the Championship last time out but crucially they've kept the vast majority of the team that got promoted two years ago intact. If they can get off to a good start, they should be in with a good shout of automatic promotion and ensuring that the yo-yo is geared for another upward swing.

Sunderland seem to be most people's tip for the title for much the same reason as they were twelve months ago but they fell away from the automatic promotion chase badly at the end of last season before losing in the play-off final to Charlton and with the playing budget being cut to reflect a second season in the lower leagues, they may have to content themselves with another go in the end of season lottery. Of teams who could potentially join them there, Peterborough have strengthened their squad after narrowly missing the top six last time out and with a weaker division this time around should be a good shout to go one better this time. Any worries Doncaster may have had over losing manager Grant McCann, the mastermind behind last season's play-off push, to Hull should surely have been soothed by the arrival of Darren Moore, fresh from being very harshly dismissed by a play-off bound West Brom side last season, back at his hometown club. With Moore in charge, Donny should be good value for another push at the top six this time out. Finally, Blackpool could be a dark horse this season. With hated chairman Owen Oyston finally gone, a new manager in Simon Grayson who has got the club promoted out of this division before and some promising new signings, they could be a surprise play-off contender.

Others who could feature in the play-off race include Lincoln who won League Two at a canter last season and with Danny Cowley staying put, could well carry on their momentum into this one. For Ipswich, facing their first season at this level in nearly 60 years, a lot will depend on how they start after last season's relegation disaster. The potential for a top six push is there but with confidence flat on the floor, getting back to the Championship may be a two season job for Paul Lambert and the Tractor Boys. With Nigel Clough at the helm and a solid squad, there's no reason Burton couldn't challenge but it'll mean them gaining some more consistency than they had last season while Coventry's main obstacle is likely to be them currently being stuck in exile again (this time at Birmingham) after yet more arguments between their board and the Ricoh Arena's landlords. With all their troubles off the pitch, mid-table looks most likely for the Sky Blues this season.

Fleetwood showed intermittent promise under Joey Barton last season but with their manager currently facing a GBH case following a dust-up with his opposite number at Barnsley last season, their league position is likely to suffer. I doubt they'll be troubled by relegation but at the same time it looks unlikely that they'll mount a challenge. Shrewsbury suffered the mother of all promotion near-miss hangovers last time out but seem to have made a few canny signings which should see them move up to mid-table safety this time. Likewise Bristol Rovers and Oxford both finished last season strongly after shaky starts and should achieve safety a bit more comfortably this time around while Gillingham look set to repeat last season's mid-table finish.

Of those who might be feeling a bit less comfortable about their prospects, MK Dons and Tranmere should be okay as long as they can keep their good finishes to last season which saw them both get promoted from League Two going. Accrington started last season well but fell away alarmingly before a late run took them to safety and will know full well what they're up against this time around. Rochdale seem to be turning into last ditch survival specialists these days but with a weak lower end to the division this year they should have a fighting chance. Just down the road, Bolton are currently in an absolute mess off the field with the club in administration and starting with a 12-point penalty. With just a handful of players signed up, their only saving grace is that manager Phil Parkinson, the man who masterminded their promotion from this division three years ago, has decided to stick around and as long as he does, they may just have enough to scrape to safety.

Which is not something that can be said of their near neighbours Bury who also find themselves in administration and with a 12 point penalty to start the season with. With a squad currently full of triallists, an untried manager in former Middlesbrough and Watford striker Paul Wilkinson and the future of the club far from certain, it's going to take a miracle for the Shakers to avoid an instant return to League Two, assuming they even make it through the season without folding - truly these are desperate times. Also looking likely to be heading into the bottom flight are Southend who crashed and burned horrifically in the second half of last season. The replacement of manager Chris Powell with Kevin Bond didn't really stop the rot and the Shrimpers survived more by default through how bad other teams were - this time one feels they won't be so lucky. Likewise Wimbledon and Wycombe left it very late to secure safety last time out and with no notable arrivals, they're likely to face an uphill struggle once again this season.

FINAL TABLE

1. Portsmouth
2. Rotherham United
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3. Sunderland
4. Peterborough United
5. Doncaster Rovers
6. Blackpool
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7. Lincoln City
8. Ipswich Town
9. Burton Albion
10. Coventry City
11. Bristol Rovers
12. Oxford United
13. Shrewsbury Town
14. Gillingham
15. Fleetwood Town
16. MK Dons
17. Tranmere Rovers
18. Rochdale
19. Accrington Stanley
20. Bolton Wanderers
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21. Wycombe Wanderers
22. Wimbledon
23. Southend United
24. Bury