I really don't like to say this as every time I see a club effectively buy the Premiership title a little part of my soul dies but it looks like a straight fight between Manchester City and Chelsea for the big one this season. Chelsea did well last season to rebound from a very poor 2015-16 to win the title but City have been spending big and with Pep Guardiola now having a full season's worth of Premiership experience under his belt, I suspect that they may narrowly pip the Blues to the title this year.
Both Liverpool and Manchester United look to be improving season upon season and I'm going for them to complete the top four. Jurgen Klopp now looks to have a Liverpool side that's definitively his and this stability should see them improve on last season (although it goes without saying that this prediction is based on Coutinho staying with them). Jose Mourinho meanwhile is getting there with United and they should end their absence from the top four in 2017 especially with Romalu Lukaku's goals now added to their front line.
Things look less rosy in North London. Tottenham have done well for the last two seasons but moving away from White Hart Lane right across to Wembley for the 2017-18 campaign plus the departure of Kyle Walker to Man City and a lack of incoming transfers looks like it's really going to hurt them. A top four finish this time out would arguably be even more of an impressive achievement than last season's second place. They still look likely to finish above Arsenal again though where the chaos off the field with the fans in open revolt against Arsene Wenger means I'm predicting a difficult season for the Gunners.
As always, there'll be a number of teams who don't look likely to breach the Top 5 but aren't really in any danger of relegation either. I'm going for Everton to claim their customary 7th place finish but with some good signings including Michael Keane, Wayne Rooney, Jordan Pickford and possibly Gylfi Sigurdsson as well, they may just have Spurs and Arsenal looking nervously over their shoulders. It's a bit difficult to call things with most of the teams in the mid-table zone where positives and negatives seem to be balancing each other out for most clubs. Southampton, despite a change of manager, still look to have a good enough squad to scrape the top half although the departure of Jay Rodriguez to West Brom not to mention the potential loss of Virgil Van Dijk to Liverpool could be potential spanners in the works. I'm therefore predicting Bournemouth to overtake their south coast rivals this season - the capture of Jermain Defoe is a smart move and could actually see them bettering last season's impressive 9th place finish. West Ham have made some interesting signings in Marko Arnautovic, Javier Hernandez, Pablo Zabaleta and Joe Hart. The big if though is whether they can finally put their teething problems at the Olympic Stadium to one side. If so they should be capable of a top half finish.
Stoke seem to be being tipped as potential strugglers by some but the arrival of Darren Fletcher should add some steel to their team and despite the loss of Arnautovic (which they need to address before the transfer window closes), I reckon they should manage mid-table safety. West Brom had an awful run-in last season and could be an outside bet to struggle if they don't get off to a good start. That said, there should be enough quality in their squad to ensure that they can stay afloat and if Jay Rodriguez can get among the goals after signing from Southampton, they should be good for mid-table. By contrast, Leicester had a strong finish last time out but with Riyadh Mahrez looking likely to move on before the transfer window shuts, they could find the going harder this time around. Craig Shakespeare has his hands full in his first managerial role and a few bad results could see the Foxes in a relegation fight.
Newcastle did well to bounce back to the Premiership at the first time of asking but the lack of any serious inbound transfer traffic at St James' Park is a bit worrying. The presence of Rafa Benitez at the helm should mean that they aren't unduly affected by the relegation dogfight but they may need to be careful. Similarly, Crystal Palace's appointment of Frank De Boer as manager could go either way. If he can rediscover the spark from his Ajax days then the Eagles should be okay. If on the other hand, his disastrous spell at Inter Milan wasn't just a blip then another season battling against the drop may beckon. One thing's for certain, with four first-teamers leaving and only two new players coming in, Palace need to start spending and quick.
On the fringes of the danger zone, Burnley scrapped their way to safety last season and with a few capable looking signings they should do so again although I can't see them improving much on last season's 16th place. Replacing Andre Gray's goals has to be the number one priority for the Clarets before the transfer window shuts. Brighton will be relying on Chris Hughton's previous Prem success at Newcastle and their players making the step up to ensure their first run in the Prem for 34 years isn't a short lived one but they should just to say scrape it.
Looking at my tips for the bottom three, Swansea looked to have pulled themselves clear of the bottom three under Paul Clement only for a late season collapse to almost suck them in again and they may not be so lucky this time around especially with the imminent departure of Gylfi Sigurdsson. Likewise, Watford faded badly at the end of the season and have changed managers yet again with former Hull boss Marco Silva the latest incumbent in one of the most unstable jobs in the top two divisions. Hornets fans will be hoping he can hit the ground running if they're to survive this time out. Finally, as much as I would love to see Huddersfield stay up (and I do believe there's an outside chance as they've spent big on some decent signings and have a manager in David Wagner who's going to relish having a crack at the Prem), I just think that the class gap is just going to be a bit too wide for them. But I seriously hope they prove me wrong...
FINAL TABLE
1. Manchester City
2. Chelsea
3. Liverpool
4. Manchester United
5. Tottenham Hotspur
6. Arsenal
7. Everton
8. Bournemouth
9. West Ham United
10. Southampton
11. Stoke City
12. West Bromwich Albion
13. Leicester City
14. Newcastle United
15. Crystal Palace
16. Burnley
17. Brighton & Hove Albion
----------------------------
18. Watford
19. Huddersfield Town
20. Swansea City
Sunday 6 August 2017
Championship Predictions 2017-18
The Championship is looking like a difficult one to call this season with no especially standout teams really catching the eye. I'm therefore going to stick my neck out and say that Sheffield Wednesday will win it - the Owls have only just missed out via the play-offs in the last two campaigns and should be able to go one better this time out.
Middlesbrough look the most likely of the relegated sides to make an attempt for an instant comeback and have splashed out on half a new side - however, Boro have found this division a tricky one to get out of in seasons gone by and will need to have their wits about them from the get go to justify their pre-season favourites tag.
Reading were unlucky to lose out to Huddersfield in the play-off final and with the majority of last season's squad still in place, should be well positioned for another tilt at the top two. Wolves are going for a continental approach, spending an eye-watering £16 million on Porto's Ruben Neves and bringing in several other interesting looking players on loan. Their spending power could see them as dark horses in the promotion race.
Norwich underachieved last season but the arrival of young German manager Daniel Farke and an influx of Teutonic players could see them mount a Huddersfield-esque play-off challenge this time out while Sheffield United won League One at a canter and have been busy in the transfer market over the summer to bring their squad up to Championship level. Wednesday may not be the only Steel City club celebrating success at this season's end.
Aston Villa have been bringing in a number of interesting looking players including former Chelsea captain John Terry but this has left them with a very old squad that looks vulnerable to injuries. Steve Bruce will be hoping that the likes of Terry, Christopher Samba and Glenn Whelan can all manage a full season of games but I suspect that they may fall just short of the play-offs. Derby seem to be getting a reputation as the division's perennial nearly-men and unfortunately I think they may be in for another agonising near-miss this season although Gary Rowett may just be able to pull a surprise out of the bag and Tom Huddlestone looks like a decent signing from Hull.
Fulham were last season's surprise package, coming from nowhere to claim the last play-off place before Reading dashed their hopes in the semis. However, with a few players leaving for pastures new and the element of surprise gone they will do well to repeat those heroics and may have to settle for a top half finish this time out. Relegated duo Hull and Sunderland will both be looking to steady the ship after summer exoduses and look likely to end up in mid-table this time around. Leeds came agonisingly close to the play-offs last time but with manager Garry Monk leaving for Middlesbrough and a relative unknown in Thomas Christiansen replacing him, they may find it more difficult this season. Cardiff, meanwhile, should improve on last season's disappointment with Neil Warnock having brought in a number of good value players to improve his squad.
Bristol City and Birmingham both achieved survival thanks to late runs and should fare a bit more comfortably this time. The arrival of Harry Redknapp as manager is quite a coup for the Blues although he's yet to bring in any major new arrivals to a squad that struggled last time out. Preston have had to cope with the loss of manager Simon Grayson to Sunderland and will be hoping that Alex Neil can pick up the baton quickly and repeat some of his heroics at Norwich a few seasons ago.
QPR and Brentford both failed to set the division alight last time out and will probably finish lower mid-table again while Bolton and Millwall will both probably be happy with survival after returning to the division from League One over the summer. Barnsley exceeded expectations to finish mid-table last season but a number of their better players have been picked off by other clubs leading to a rebuilding exercise. They at least look to have secured a few decent signings who should help them sneak home although it could be a close-cut thing.
Looking at the bottom three, Burton did well to survive last time out but the loss of their record signing Liam Boyce for the whole season with a serious injury suffered just a few weeks after he joined really is a rotten slice of luck and could spell big trouble for them. Nottingham Forest only just scraped home in both of the last two campaigns and could struggle to do so again while Ipswich look like a club in chaos with a poor finish last season and an awful set of pre-season results this time out. Mick McCarthy may have to rely on all his managerial experience to prevent the Tractor Boys from a first ever foray into the League's third tier...
FINAL TABLE
1. Sheffield Wednesday
2. Middlesbrough
----------------------------
3. Reading
4. Wolverhampton Wanderers
5. Norwich City
6. Sheffield United
----------------------------
7. Aston Villa
8. Derby County
9. Fulham
10. Hull City
11. Cardiff City
12. Leeds United
13. Sunderland
14. Bristol City
15. Birmingham City
16. Preston North End
17. QPR
18. Bolton Wanderers
19. Brentford
20. Millwall
21. Barnsley
----------------------------
22. Ipswich Town
23. Nottingham Forest
24. Burton Albion
Middlesbrough look the most likely of the relegated sides to make an attempt for an instant comeback and have splashed out on half a new side - however, Boro have found this division a tricky one to get out of in seasons gone by and will need to have their wits about them from the get go to justify their pre-season favourites tag.
Reading were unlucky to lose out to Huddersfield in the play-off final and with the majority of last season's squad still in place, should be well positioned for another tilt at the top two. Wolves are going for a continental approach, spending an eye-watering £16 million on Porto's Ruben Neves and bringing in several other interesting looking players on loan. Their spending power could see them as dark horses in the promotion race.
Norwich underachieved last season but the arrival of young German manager Daniel Farke and an influx of Teutonic players could see them mount a Huddersfield-esque play-off challenge this time out while Sheffield United won League One at a canter and have been busy in the transfer market over the summer to bring their squad up to Championship level. Wednesday may not be the only Steel City club celebrating success at this season's end.
Aston Villa have been bringing in a number of interesting looking players including former Chelsea captain John Terry but this has left them with a very old squad that looks vulnerable to injuries. Steve Bruce will be hoping that the likes of Terry, Christopher Samba and Glenn Whelan can all manage a full season of games but I suspect that they may fall just short of the play-offs. Derby seem to be getting a reputation as the division's perennial nearly-men and unfortunately I think they may be in for another agonising near-miss this season although Gary Rowett may just be able to pull a surprise out of the bag and Tom Huddlestone looks like a decent signing from Hull.
Fulham were last season's surprise package, coming from nowhere to claim the last play-off place before Reading dashed their hopes in the semis. However, with a few players leaving for pastures new and the element of surprise gone they will do well to repeat those heroics and may have to settle for a top half finish this time out. Relegated duo Hull and Sunderland will both be looking to steady the ship after summer exoduses and look likely to end up in mid-table this time around. Leeds came agonisingly close to the play-offs last time but with manager Garry Monk leaving for Middlesbrough and a relative unknown in Thomas Christiansen replacing him, they may find it more difficult this season. Cardiff, meanwhile, should improve on last season's disappointment with Neil Warnock having brought in a number of good value players to improve his squad.
Bristol City and Birmingham both achieved survival thanks to late runs and should fare a bit more comfortably this time. The arrival of Harry Redknapp as manager is quite a coup for the Blues although he's yet to bring in any major new arrivals to a squad that struggled last time out. Preston have had to cope with the loss of manager Simon Grayson to Sunderland and will be hoping that Alex Neil can pick up the baton quickly and repeat some of his heroics at Norwich a few seasons ago.
QPR and Brentford both failed to set the division alight last time out and will probably finish lower mid-table again while Bolton and Millwall will both probably be happy with survival after returning to the division from League One over the summer. Barnsley exceeded expectations to finish mid-table last season but a number of their better players have been picked off by other clubs leading to a rebuilding exercise. They at least look to have secured a few decent signings who should help them sneak home although it could be a close-cut thing.
Looking at the bottom three, Burton did well to survive last time out but the loss of their record signing Liam Boyce for the whole season with a serious injury suffered just a few weeks after he joined really is a rotten slice of luck and could spell big trouble for them. Nottingham Forest only just scraped home in both of the last two campaigns and could struggle to do so again while Ipswich look like a club in chaos with a poor finish last season and an awful set of pre-season results this time out. Mick McCarthy may have to rely on all his managerial experience to prevent the Tractor Boys from a first ever foray into the League's third tier...
FINAL TABLE
1. Sheffield Wednesday
2. Middlesbrough
----------------------------
3. Reading
4. Wolverhampton Wanderers
5. Norwich City
6. Sheffield United
----------------------------
7. Aston Villa
8. Derby County
9. Fulham
10. Hull City
11. Cardiff City
12. Leeds United
13. Sunderland
14. Bristol City
15. Birmingham City
16. Preston North End
17. QPR
18. Bolton Wanderers
19. Brentford
20. Millwall
21. Barnsley
----------------------------
22. Ipswich Town
23. Nottingham Forest
24. Burton Albion
League One Predictions 2017-18
Last season I went for Bradford to win this division and, guess what, I'm doing so again. Unlucky to lose in the play-off final to Millwall, they've kept the nucleus of their squad intact and should have enough to not have to worry about the end of season lottery this time out.
Joining them, I'm going to throw a curveball in and predict Southend to grab the second automatic promotion place. They ended last season well and with the arrival of Michael Kightly and Michael Turner, two players who are way too good for this division, they might just be the surprise package of the season.
A lot of pundits seem to be predicting the relegated duo of Blackburn and Wigan to walk the division but as several clubs (Leeds and both Sheffield teams to name but three) will ruefully tell you, League One is a difficult division for bigger clubs to get out of if they're unprepared for it. Tony Mowbray will clearly want to atone for last season when he suffered the ignominy of managing two relegated clubs (Blackburn and Coventry) in the same season and Rovers have made some interesting looking signings including Bradley Dack and Peter Whittingham plus they have the goals of Danny Graham to call upon but I think this season may be a bit of a learning curve for them and will end in a play-off place rather than automatic promotion. The same goes for Wigan who walked this division two years ago only to tumble straight back down after a disastrous 2016-17 campaign. New manager Paul Cook has reached the play-offs before at this level with Chesterfield but with a tough rebuilding job going on, I can't see the Latics making the top two this time out.
Cook's old club Portsmouth have a new manager in Kenny Jackett and a big money takeover giving them a sizeable transfer war chest and have to be up there among the play-off contenders. Meanwhile Peterborough have been the division's perennial nearly-men for a few years now but the signings of Ricky Miller and Danny Lloyd, both of whom hit twenty plus goals in non-league last season, could be the catalyst they need to spark a play-off push this season.
Scunthorpe and Fleetwood both looked in with a shout of automatic promotion last season but poor run-ins condemned both to defeat in the play-off semi-finals and I suspect their best chance may now have passed. Fleetwood also need to cope with the departure of top scorer David Ball to Rotherham and will be hoping that new signing Conor McAleny can fill his boots quickly.
MK Dons should improve on last season's disappointing finish but I think there's just too many better teams in the division this year for them to breach the Top 6 and they may have to wait until 2018-19 to mount a serious promotion challenge. Similarly Doncaster and Plymouth who came up last season, will probably be happy to consolidate with a mid-table finish. Rotherham ended up relegated by a country mile from the Championship but their squad at least looks solid enough to stabilise in the third tier and ensure the rot doesn't set in any further. Bristol Rovers did well to make the top half last time out but it's difficult to see them progressing much further while Bury are the division's great unknown quantity with manager Lee Clark (who's tasted success at this level with Huddersfield in years gone by) assembling practically a whole new squad over the summer. There's some interesting signings in there but they may be another team who will have to wait until the season after this one to challenge properly.
Looking a bit further down the table, Rochdale's best chance for promotion has probably passed by now and with the division looking a bit stronger this season, their final position may suffer accordingly. The same could be said for Northampton who look unlikely to improve on last season's 16th place finish. You have to feel sorry for Karl Robinson at Charlton who's a good manager at this level but with a pantomime going on off the field, it's very difficult to see the Addicks achieving anything higher than a mid-table finish this time out. Oxford, meanwhile, have suffered the loss of manager Michael Appleton to take the assistant's job at Leicester and have replaced him with an unknown in former Leeds and Swansea assistant Pep Clotet who will have to find his feet quickly especially with the departures of captain John Lundstram to Sheffield United and free-scoring Conor McAleny to Fleetwood.
Oldham looked dead and buried for most of last season but the return of manager John Sheridan following an unsuccessful spell at Notts County proved to be the catalyst for them to stage the big great escape story at this level. The Latics are likely to struggle again but Sheridan should fire them up enough to ensure survival for another season at least. Walsall go into the season with a young team who will have to work as a unit to stay on the right side of the relegation line but they should just squeak it.
Looking at my relegation choices then, Blackpool did very well to bounce back from League Two at the first attempt but with the chaos off the field shadowing progress on it, they may find it difficult to avoid yo-yoing back to the bottom flight. Manager Gary Bowyer has made a few decent signings but the atmosphere at Bloomfield Road right now isn't helping anybody and changes need to be made off the pitch before the Tangerines can start progressing on it. Wimbledon did well to power their way to a mid-table finish last time out but with several of their better players having left for bigger clubs over the summer, they may find this season a lot tougher while Gillingham and Shrewsbury both only just squeaked home last time out and with three of the clubs coming up looking good enough for a top half finish (not to mention the Gills losing star midfielder Bradley Dack to Blackburn), they may not be so lucky this time around...
FINAL TABLE
1. Bradford City
2. Southend United
----------------------------
3. Blackburn Rovers
4. Portsmouth
5. Wigan Athletic
6. Peterborough United
----------------------------
7. Scunthorpe United
8. MK Dons
9. Doncaster Rovers
10. Bristol Rovers
11. Bury
12. Fleetwood Town
13. Rotherham United
14. Plymouth Argyle
15. Rochdale
16. Charlton Athletic
17. Oxford United
18. Northampton Town
19. Oldham Athletic
20. Walsall
----------------------------
21. Blackpool
22. Wimbledon
23. Gillingham
24. Shrewsbury Town
Joining them, I'm going to throw a curveball in and predict Southend to grab the second automatic promotion place. They ended last season well and with the arrival of Michael Kightly and Michael Turner, two players who are way too good for this division, they might just be the surprise package of the season.
A lot of pundits seem to be predicting the relegated duo of Blackburn and Wigan to walk the division but as several clubs (Leeds and both Sheffield teams to name but three) will ruefully tell you, League One is a difficult division for bigger clubs to get out of if they're unprepared for it. Tony Mowbray will clearly want to atone for last season when he suffered the ignominy of managing two relegated clubs (Blackburn and Coventry) in the same season and Rovers have made some interesting looking signings including Bradley Dack and Peter Whittingham plus they have the goals of Danny Graham to call upon but I think this season may be a bit of a learning curve for them and will end in a play-off place rather than automatic promotion. The same goes for Wigan who walked this division two years ago only to tumble straight back down after a disastrous 2016-17 campaign. New manager Paul Cook has reached the play-offs before at this level with Chesterfield but with a tough rebuilding job going on, I can't see the Latics making the top two this time out.
Cook's old club Portsmouth have a new manager in Kenny Jackett and a big money takeover giving them a sizeable transfer war chest and have to be up there among the play-off contenders. Meanwhile Peterborough have been the division's perennial nearly-men for a few years now but the signings of Ricky Miller and Danny Lloyd, both of whom hit twenty plus goals in non-league last season, could be the catalyst they need to spark a play-off push this season.
Scunthorpe and Fleetwood both looked in with a shout of automatic promotion last season but poor run-ins condemned both to defeat in the play-off semi-finals and I suspect their best chance may now have passed. Fleetwood also need to cope with the departure of top scorer David Ball to Rotherham and will be hoping that new signing Conor McAleny can fill his boots quickly.
MK Dons should improve on last season's disappointing finish but I think there's just too many better teams in the division this year for them to breach the Top 6 and they may have to wait until 2018-19 to mount a serious promotion challenge. Similarly Doncaster and Plymouth who came up last season, will probably be happy to consolidate with a mid-table finish. Rotherham ended up relegated by a country mile from the Championship but their squad at least looks solid enough to stabilise in the third tier and ensure the rot doesn't set in any further. Bristol Rovers did well to make the top half last time out but it's difficult to see them progressing much further while Bury are the division's great unknown quantity with manager Lee Clark (who's tasted success at this level with Huddersfield in years gone by) assembling practically a whole new squad over the summer. There's some interesting signings in there but they may be another team who will have to wait until the season after this one to challenge properly.
Looking a bit further down the table, Rochdale's best chance for promotion has probably passed by now and with the division looking a bit stronger this season, their final position may suffer accordingly. The same could be said for Northampton who look unlikely to improve on last season's 16th place finish. You have to feel sorry for Karl Robinson at Charlton who's a good manager at this level but with a pantomime going on off the field, it's very difficult to see the Addicks achieving anything higher than a mid-table finish this time out. Oxford, meanwhile, have suffered the loss of manager Michael Appleton to take the assistant's job at Leicester and have replaced him with an unknown in former Leeds and Swansea assistant Pep Clotet who will have to find his feet quickly especially with the departures of captain John Lundstram to Sheffield United and free-scoring Conor McAleny to Fleetwood.
Oldham looked dead and buried for most of last season but the return of manager John Sheridan following an unsuccessful spell at Notts County proved to be the catalyst for them to stage the big great escape story at this level. The Latics are likely to struggle again but Sheridan should fire them up enough to ensure survival for another season at least. Walsall go into the season with a young team who will have to work as a unit to stay on the right side of the relegation line but they should just squeak it.
Looking at my relegation choices then, Blackpool did very well to bounce back from League Two at the first attempt but with the chaos off the field shadowing progress on it, they may find it difficult to avoid yo-yoing back to the bottom flight. Manager Gary Bowyer has made a few decent signings but the atmosphere at Bloomfield Road right now isn't helping anybody and changes need to be made off the pitch before the Tangerines can start progressing on it. Wimbledon did well to power their way to a mid-table finish last time out but with several of their better players having left for bigger clubs over the summer, they may find this season a lot tougher while Gillingham and Shrewsbury both only just squeaked home last time out and with three of the clubs coming up looking good enough for a top half finish (not to mention the Gills losing star midfielder Bradley Dack to Blackburn), they may not be so lucky this time around...
FINAL TABLE
1. Bradford City
2. Southend United
----------------------------
3. Blackburn Rovers
4. Portsmouth
5. Wigan Athletic
6. Peterborough United
----------------------------
7. Scunthorpe United
8. MK Dons
9. Doncaster Rovers
10. Bristol Rovers
11. Bury
12. Fleetwood Town
13. Rotherham United
14. Plymouth Argyle
15. Rochdale
16. Charlton Athletic
17. Oxford United
18. Northampton Town
19. Oldham Athletic
20. Walsall
----------------------------
21. Blackpool
22. Wimbledon
23. Gillingham
24. Shrewsbury Town
League Two Predictions 2017-18
So I've been a bit slack with this thing of late...nothing new there I hear you say. I very nearly didn't bother with the footy predictions this year because, quite honestly, last season was just totally demoralising for me seeing my team (Hartlepool United) get relegated to the Conference without so much as a whimper. However...after a bit of thought, I decided to give it a go. So let's start with League Two. Please note that all of these were done prior to the first matches of the season yesterday...
Looking at the League's basement division, the team who stand out more than any others to me is Luton. They were very unlucky not to make the top three last year, losing out to Blackpool in the play-off semis instead. With a strengthened squad and nobody coming in from either above or below who look up to the same standard as them, they're my tip for the title this season.
Coventry are really too big a club to be in this division...although having said that, people used to say the same about Portsmouth and it took them a good 3-4 seasons to get out of it. However, Mark Robins is a tried and tested lower league manager and if the Sky Blues can pack their stadium out every week then they should have enough to make sure their stay here is a brief one.
For the third automatic promotion place, I'd say it's a toss-up between Mansfield and Swindon. Both have managers who've got promoted from this division before (Steve Evans for the Stags and David Flitcroft for the Robins) and both have made some canny looking signings this summer. I'm going to go for Mansfield to edge it just because they had a good run-in last season while Swindon were tumbling out of League One and I think that'll give them a stronger start which could be crucial.
Exeter finished last season like a house on fire and if they'd managed to keep the squad from that run-in intact then they'd be a shoo-in for automatic promotion in my book. Alas, other clubs have noticed and the inevitable picking off of the decent players duly happened with Ethan Ampadu being pinched by Chelseas, Joel Grant going to Plymouth and Ollie Watkins leaving for Brentford. Long-serving manager Paul Tisdale should still be able to fire them up to a decent finish but I suspect they may get off to a slow start and have to settle for a play-off place.
Joining Exeter and Swindon in the play-offs, I'm gonna go for two East Midlands clubs who've come into this division from opposite directions Chesterfield and Lincoln. Chesterfield had an awful season last time out but manager Gary Caldwell has a good record with getting teams promoted, having led Wigan to the League One title a couple of seasons back and with a summer spent rebuilding the Spireites' squad they should be in a good position to make a push for the top seven. Lincoln, meanwhile, almost hit 100 points on their way to the Conference title and with some handy looking acquisitions to add to that squad they may well fancy their chances at a second successive promotion.
Port Vale, the fourth relegated club, look the least likely of the quartet to bounce straight back but they could be an outside bet for the play-offs. Michael Brown, in his first managerial job, has pretty much assembled a whole new team at Vale Park which could go either way but the new signings look like a respectable enough fourth division team. Everything depends on how quickly they gel for Vale to mount a promotion challenge. Joining them on the fringes of the play-offs are likely to be Cambridge who've made a few decent signings to bolster what was already a capable squad. Unfortunately I think four quite strong clubs coming down is likely to count against them on this occasion and they may have to wait until 2018-19 to make a serious promotion push.
Carlisle and Grimsby both probably had their best chance of promotion last season but the sale of key strikers (Charlie Wyke from the Cumbrians and Omar Bogle from the Mariners) ultimately led to both having horrendous run-ins and costing them promotion. If either of them are serious about making another go of it this time out then a strong start is badly needed. Similarly, Wycombe have invested in a new strike force of Adam El-Abd and Nathan Tyson, two players with good goalscoring records who've been misfiring a lot in recent years and a lot is going to depend on them getting their form back for the Chairboys to mount a promotion challenge.
Colchester, Notts County and Stevenage all finished mid-table last time out and nothing suggests they won't do so again. The Magpies are probably the most likely of the three to mount an outside promotion bid as Kevin Nolan has made some handy looking signings but like Cambridge they look more like a side who are likely to be bothering the top seven in 2018-19 rather than the upcoming campaign. Stevenage did well to make a top half finish last time out after a very poor previous season but going any higher is probably beyond them at this point in time while Colchester will need to quickly find a replacement for 17-goal Chris Porter who has left for Crewe or they could end up struggling. Porter's arrival at Gresty Road along with a few other decent signings should at least ensure the Railwaymen manage an improvement on last year's dismal season although the departure of star defender Jon Guthrie to Walsall will leave a hole at the back that needs fixing.
If Newport can carry their form from last season's run-in when they went from dead and buried to last day survival, over into this season's campaign then they should be capable of a mid-table finish and with a couple of decent looking signings coming in, there's nothing to suggest they won't. Forest Green finally made it up to the League via the Conference play-offs after a series of near-misses and have brought in a large group of new players but with the added burden of financial spending regulations that the Conference doesn't have and a small support base, a lower mid-table finish looks the most likely outcome for them.
Looking at potential strugglers, Barnet will once again be relying on John Akinde to come up with the goals to keep them afloat, Accrington suffered a poor end to last season and were lucky that they'd already got the points to secure safety. Yeovil's already small squad has been hit by a number of departures and while Morecambe have at least managed to put themselves on a firm financial footing after a few years of uncertainty but now need to concentrate on building up their threadbare squad.
I'm going to plump for Cheltenham and Crawley as being the two unlucky clubs this season though. Cheltenham struggled badly in their first season back in the league after winning the Conference in 2016 and with no eye-catching new signings, they look to be in real danger this time around. Similarly, Crawley have been hovering around the trapdoor for a few seasons now and the departure of top scorer James Collins to Luton could well be a death blow for them. Whoever the relegated clubs end up being, I'm hoping that one of the two teams coming up to replace them is my lot, Hartlepool. But I'm not holding my breath...
FINAL TABLE
1. Luton Town
2. Coventry City
3. Mansfield Town
----------------------------
4. Swindon Town
5. Exeter City
6. Chesterfield
7. Lincoln City
----------------------------
8. Cambridge United
9. Port Vale
10. Carlisle United
11. Wycombe Wanderers
12. Notts County
13. Grimsby Town
14. Colchester United
15. Stevenage Borough
16. Crewe Alexandra
17. Newport County
18. Forest Green Rovers
19. Barnet
20. Accrington Stanley
21. Yeovil Town
22. Morecambe
----------------------------
23. Cheltenham Town
24. Crawley Town
Looking at the League's basement division, the team who stand out more than any others to me is Luton. They were very unlucky not to make the top three last year, losing out to Blackpool in the play-off semis instead. With a strengthened squad and nobody coming in from either above or below who look up to the same standard as them, they're my tip for the title this season.
Coventry are really too big a club to be in this division...although having said that, people used to say the same about Portsmouth and it took them a good 3-4 seasons to get out of it. However, Mark Robins is a tried and tested lower league manager and if the Sky Blues can pack their stadium out every week then they should have enough to make sure their stay here is a brief one.
For the third automatic promotion place, I'd say it's a toss-up between Mansfield and Swindon. Both have managers who've got promoted from this division before (Steve Evans for the Stags and David Flitcroft for the Robins) and both have made some canny looking signings this summer. I'm going to go for Mansfield to edge it just because they had a good run-in last season while Swindon were tumbling out of League One and I think that'll give them a stronger start which could be crucial.
Exeter finished last season like a house on fire and if they'd managed to keep the squad from that run-in intact then they'd be a shoo-in for automatic promotion in my book. Alas, other clubs have noticed and the inevitable picking off of the decent players duly happened with Ethan Ampadu being pinched by Chelseas, Joel Grant going to Plymouth and Ollie Watkins leaving for Brentford. Long-serving manager Paul Tisdale should still be able to fire them up to a decent finish but I suspect they may get off to a slow start and have to settle for a play-off place.
Joining Exeter and Swindon in the play-offs, I'm gonna go for two East Midlands clubs who've come into this division from opposite directions Chesterfield and Lincoln. Chesterfield had an awful season last time out but manager Gary Caldwell has a good record with getting teams promoted, having led Wigan to the League One title a couple of seasons back and with a summer spent rebuilding the Spireites' squad they should be in a good position to make a push for the top seven. Lincoln, meanwhile, almost hit 100 points on their way to the Conference title and with some handy looking acquisitions to add to that squad they may well fancy their chances at a second successive promotion.
Port Vale, the fourth relegated club, look the least likely of the quartet to bounce straight back but they could be an outside bet for the play-offs. Michael Brown, in his first managerial job, has pretty much assembled a whole new team at Vale Park which could go either way but the new signings look like a respectable enough fourth division team. Everything depends on how quickly they gel for Vale to mount a promotion challenge. Joining them on the fringes of the play-offs are likely to be Cambridge who've made a few decent signings to bolster what was already a capable squad. Unfortunately I think four quite strong clubs coming down is likely to count against them on this occasion and they may have to wait until 2018-19 to make a serious promotion push.
Carlisle and Grimsby both probably had their best chance of promotion last season but the sale of key strikers (Charlie Wyke from the Cumbrians and Omar Bogle from the Mariners) ultimately led to both having horrendous run-ins and costing them promotion. If either of them are serious about making another go of it this time out then a strong start is badly needed. Similarly, Wycombe have invested in a new strike force of Adam El-Abd and Nathan Tyson, two players with good goalscoring records who've been misfiring a lot in recent years and a lot is going to depend on them getting their form back for the Chairboys to mount a promotion challenge.
Colchester, Notts County and Stevenage all finished mid-table last time out and nothing suggests they won't do so again. The Magpies are probably the most likely of the three to mount an outside promotion bid as Kevin Nolan has made some handy looking signings but like Cambridge they look more like a side who are likely to be bothering the top seven in 2018-19 rather than the upcoming campaign. Stevenage did well to make a top half finish last time out after a very poor previous season but going any higher is probably beyond them at this point in time while Colchester will need to quickly find a replacement for 17-goal Chris Porter who has left for Crewe or they could end up struggling. Porter's arrival at Gresty Road along with a few other decent signings should at least ensure the Railwaymen manage an improvement on last year's dismal season although the departure of star defender Jon Guthrie to Walsall will leave a hole at the back that needs fixing.
If Newport can carry their form from last season's run-in when they went from dead and buried to last day survival, over into this season's campaign then they should be capable of a mid-table finish and with a couple of decent looking signings coming in, there's nothing to suggest they won't. Forest Green finally made it up to the League via the Conference play-offs after a series of near-misses and have brought in a large group of new players but with the added burden of financial spending regulations that the Conference doesn't have and a small support base, a lower mid-table finish looks the most likely outcome for them.
Looking at potential strugglers, Barnet will once again be relying on John Akinde to come up with the goals to keep them afloat, Accrington suffered a poor end to last season and were lucky that they'd already got the points to secure safety. Yeovil's already small squad has been hit by a number of departures and while Morecambe have at least managed to put themselves on a firm financial footing after a few years of uncertainty but now need to concentrate on building up their threadbare squad.
I'm going to plump for Cheltenham and Crawley as being the two unlucky clubs this season though. Cheltenham struggled badly in their first season back in the league after winning the Conference in 2016 and with no eye-catching new signings, they look to be in real danger this time around. Similarly, Crawley have been hovering around the trapdoor for a few seasons now and the departure of top scorer James Collins to Luton could well be a death blow for them. Whoever the relegated clubs end up being, I'm hoping that one of the two teams coming up to replace them is my lot, Hartlepool. But I'm not holding my breath...
FINAL TABLE
1. Luton Town
2. Coventry City
3. Mansfield Town
----------------------------
4. Swindon Town
5. Exeter City
6. Chesterfield
7. Lincoln City
----------------------------
8. Cambridge United
9. Port Vale
10. Carlisle United
11. Wycombe Wanderers
12. Notts County
13. Grimsby Town
14. Colchester United
15. Stevenage Borough
16. Crewe Alexandra
17. Newport County
18. Forest Green Rovers
19. Barnet
20. Accrington Stanley
21. Yeovil Town
22. Morecambe
----------------------------
23. Cheltenham Town
24. Crawley Town
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