Last season proved if anything that maybe the Premiership isn't always as easy predict as we sometimes think it is. To wit - your correspondant wrote of Leicester that he thought that they could easily prove a surprise package under Claudio Ranieri...and make the top half. Well, that was an understatement if ever there was one. Meanwhile, my tip (and most people's) for the title Chelsea self-destructed quite spectacularly and limped their way to a 9th place finish, their worst for over a decade.
So what of this season? Well, I'm going to stick my neck out, go against the flow and say that this will be the season that Arsenal finally end their ten year wait for a title. The fact that they came in second last time around despite being supremely inconsistent highlights the quality of their squad and although pre-season transfer activity has been fairly quiet at the Emirates, Arsene Wenger normally tends to leave his deals until late anyhow. There's a big "if" attached to this though - the Gunners need to stay injury free which has been their downfall the last few seasons. Can they manage it? Some would say they're due a season where things go right on that front for a change...
North London neighbours Tottenham should run them close again - they did brilliantly to finish third last season and keep the pressure on Leicester until the very late stages and have kept last season's squad intact. As long as the likes of Harry Kane and Dele Alli don't suffer a hangover from England's disastrous Euro campaign, there's no reason they can't challenge again.
Stung by last season's failure, Manchester United and Manchester City have both made sweeping and expensive changes but as last season proved, mass spending doesn't necessarily guarantee you the title anymore. Jose Mourinho's appointment on the red side of Manchester could go either way but it took him two seasons to turn a fading Chelsea side into champions a few years ago and I suspect it may be the same at Old Trafford this time out. That said, they should comfortably make the Champions League places.
Meanwhile on the blue side of the city, Pep Guardiola is a very ambitious appointment by City following the departure of Manuel Pellegrini but he's untested in the Prem and for every Mourinho that joins the Premier League and gets it right first time, there's a Phil Scolari or Andre Villas-Boas who come in with a great reputation abroad but never quite adapt. Guardiola has been splashing the cash like there's no tomorrow but I get the impression that it could go either way for City this season - either they'll walk it or things'll go wrong and they'll come in fourth again. My money's on the latter.
Leicester's title win last season was a story to warm all but the coldest of football fans' hearts but with an added Champions League campaign to occupy them this season and the test of having to stay injury-free for a second consecutive season, a repeat may just be beyond them unfortunately. Nevertheless, confidence will be sky high at the Walkers Stadium going into this season and it should propel them to at least a UEFA Cup place.
Jose Mourinho paid the price for last season's failure at Chelsea and with Antonio Conte stepping into the hotseat, expectations will be higher this time around. However, confidence is likely to be low at Stamford Bridge right now and the half dozen or so big money new recruits will need to settle in fast. They may be in with an outside shot of the Top 4 but I suspect they may stall just outside it.
West Ham's best chance of upsetting the apple cart with a Top 4 finish may have come and gone last season but they've managed to keep a hold of pretty much all of the squad that did so well under Slavan Bilic and added a couple more signings. They should finish well inside the top half.
Liverpool underachieved badly even after Jurgen Klopp replaced Brendan Rodgers in the hot seat last season and given that their big summer signing is the massively inconsistent Georgino Wijnaldum from relegated Newcastle, I'm not so sure that this season will be any better for them. Klopp may need a good Cup run to keep the Anfield faithful on his side this season if things start to backfire.
Across Stanley Park, Everton's recruitment of Ronald Koeman should reinvigorate them a bit but Southampton, the club who he left the Toffees for, not only have to rebuild but also have a UEFA Cup campaign to test the fitness levels of their relatively small squad. They should just scrape a top half finish but no higher.
It's difficult to see Stoke and West Brom doing anything other than their usual mid-table spot (though the former's capture of Berahino from the latter should be interesting). Sunderland have appointed a relatively safe pair of hands in David Moyes to replace England-bound Sam Allardyce and should achieve safety a bit more comfortably this time out. Of the three promoted clubs, Middlesbrough look best equipped to survive at this level with Aitor Karanka using his connections across the continent to bring in almost a whole new squad. How quickly they gel will be key to Boro's success but if all goes to plan then they shouldn't be unduly worried about an instant return to the Championship.
Looking at those likely to struggle, I think it'll be three from the following six to face the dreaded drop this season. Bournemouth did well to battle their way to safety in their first season in the Prem but the departure of Matt Ritchie to Newcastle is likely to hurt them. They'll be hoping that Jordan Ibe will be able to find his scoring boots quickly following his move to the south coast from Liverpool.
Burnley at least have the relative luxury of having been in the Prem fairly recently and should know what's required to battle their way to safety this time around but with a small squad they'll be hoping to stay injury free and that the likes of Andre Gray can continue the form they showed in the Championship last season. Swansea, meanwhile, drifted backwards badly last season and with several players having taken part in Wales' Herculean European Championship adventure and no doubt feeling the after-effects, it could be a testing season for them.
Watford and Crystal Palace both went into freefall at the tail end of last season and that's often a bad omen for the following campaign (as Newcastle fans will doubtless regretfully testify). Palace's capture of Andros Townsend from the relegated Geordies is a good signing but they've lost Dwight Gayle, one of their better players, in exchange. They badly need a good start or it could be a very long hard winter at Selhurst Park. Watford, meanwhile, have changed managers yet again (now on their fourth in three seasons) and the lack of stability could well come back to bite them this season.
Compared to Hull, however, Watford look like a relatively stable outfit - with Steve Bruce leaving a matter of weeks after helping the Tigers to promotion via the play-offs and no incoming transfers to speak of, the situation at the KC Stadium looks very messy to say the least. Barring a miracle, unfortunately it looks like this is going to be a very short stay indeed in the Premiership for them. But hey, a lot of people were saying that about Leicester last time out so you never know...
FINAL TABLE
1. Arsenal
-------------------------------------
2. Tottenham
3. Manchester Utd
4. Manchester City
-------------------------------------
5. Leicester
-------------------------------------
6. Chelsea
7. West Ham
8. Liverpool
9. Everton
10. Southampton
11. Stoke
12. Middlesbrough
13. West Brom
14. Sunderland
15. Bournemouth
16. Burnley
17. Swansea
-------------------------------------
18. Watford
19. Crystal Palace
20. Hull
Friday, 5 August 2016
Thursday, 4 August 2016
Championship Predictions 2016-17
The Championship is looking like a particularly tough division to escape from this season with three strong relegated clubs and a lot who missed out last season strengthening. Nevertheless, I think it'd be a brave man who bets against Newcastle. Having defied expectations by persuading Rafa Benitez to stay on as manager and with a clutch of exciting signings, tradition dictates they should walk this division. However, they need to be aware that they're likely to have a very big target on their backs with a lot of teams out to put one over the big dog in the yard. Can they handle the pressure? We'll see...
Brighton were very unlucky to miss out last time and should go one better this time round with the majority of last season's title-challenging squad still in place at the Withdean Stadium. Norwich should be in the mix-up as well as they've kept the majority of the squad (not to mention the manager Alex Neil) who got them out of this league two seasons ago although the departure of Nathan Redmond to Southampton makes me think they may get edged out by Brighton and have to settle for a play-off place.
Sheffield Wednesday were the form team at the end of last season and should make the play-offs again - they could even go one better with a bit of luck and other teams slipping up. The big unknown quantity are Wolves with a new board, new manager and a huge transfer war chest. A lot is going to be determined by how they spend it between now and deadline day but don't bet against them finishing the highest out of the three West Midlands clubs in the Championship.
Can Derby finally put the hoodoo of the last few seasons behind them? Nigel Pearson is a good appointment as manager and should see them back for a play-off challenge after the disappointment of just missing out the last couple of times but I think there's just too many stronger teams for them to make the top two.
Cardiff and Ipswich could be outside bets for the top six - both have come close in recent years and have a good solid core of players to build their team around but their comparative lack of spending power might see them edged out. Aston Villa, relegated last season, have at least had a clearout following Remi Garde's disastrous reign and Ross McCormack should get them plenty of goals but getting back into the Premiership looks likely to be a two-season job for them and they may have to settle for a spot just outside the play-offs this time out.
QPR and Birmingham have a slim chance at the top six as both have good young managers (Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink and Gary Rowett respectively) and are making steps back in the right direction after recent troubles but this may be a season too soon for them to challenge. Leeds have got a good manager in Garry Monk who's already attracted some promising signings to the club but as long as the pantomime off the field under Massimo Cellino continues I just can't see them getting any higher than mid-table. Likewise, Wigan did well to bounce back from relegation at the first attempt last season but while they should stay comfortably clear of the drop zone, it's difficult to see them gunning for a second successive promotion.
Brentford were actually my tip for the title last season but a series of injuries to key players and others underperforming saw them finish mid-table and I can't see anything different happening this time around. Many were expecting Blackburn to freefall following the departure of Jordan Rhodes to Middlesbrough but they managed to stay afloat with room to spare and with a few canny looking signings coming in they should manage a comfortable mid-table finish this season. Similarly, Preston, Reading and Bristol City all finished mid-table last time out and look likely to do so again with no real exciting developments or worrying signs to speak of at any of them.
Looking downwards at the teams likely to struggle, Huddersfield always seem to be down among the dead men but end up avoiding the drop. With little activity on the transfer market this summer they could end up struggling but I think there are weaker sides down there which should mean they stay up by default. It'd be tempting to mark Barnsley and Burton down as relegation fodder following their shock promotions last season but Barnsley went into the play-offs on a storming run of form and if they can carry that over into this season (big if), it should be enough for them to survive. Likewise, Nigel Clough is an experienced manager at this level and with a few canny signings coming in, Burton might actually surprise a few people by battling their way to a second season at this level.
The big irony is that this may come at the expense of one of their much larger near-neighbours Nottingham Forest who've been on the skids for quite some time now. Philippe Montainer is no less than their fifth manager in two years and with financial problems off the field, Forest may find themselves facing an unwanted trip into lower league football in 2017. Fulham only just scraped home last season and the loss of top scorer Ross McCormack to Aston Villa may well be a death blow for them while Rotherham's failure to tie down Neil Warnock, the architect of their great escape last time out, to a long term contract leaves them with a mountain to climb to stay in the second tier this time out. But then again, they can take comfort in the fact that I said that about them (and Fulham for that matter) last season and they still managed it. Like I said, it's an unpredictable league the Championship...
FINAL TABLE
1. Newcastle
2. Brighton
------------------------------------------------
3. Norwich
4. Sheff Weds
5. Wolves
6. Derby
------------------------------------------------
7. Cardiff
8. Ipswich
9. Aston Villa
10. QPR
11. Birmingham
12. Leeds
13. Wigan
14. Bristol City
15. Brentford
16. Blackburn
17. Preston
18. Reading
19. Huddersfield
20. Barnsley
21. Burton
------------------------------------------------
22. Nottingham Forest
23. Fulham
24. Rotherham
Brighton were very unlucky to miss out last time and should go one better this time round with the majority of last season's title-challenging squad still in place at the Withdean Stadium. Norwich should be in the mix-up as well as they've kept the majority of the squad (not to mention the manager Alex Neil) who got them out of this league two seasons ago although the departure of Nathan Redmond to Southampton makes me think they may get edged out by Brighton and have to settle for a play-off place.
Sheffield Wednesday were the form team at the end of last season and should make the play-offs again - they could even go one better with a bit of luck and other teams slipping up. The big unknown quantity are Wolves with a new board, new manager and a huge transfer war chest. A lot is going to be determined by how they spend it between now and deadline day but don't bet against them finishing the highest out of the three West Midlands clubs in the Championship.
Can Derby finally put the hoodoo of the last few seasons behind them? Nigel Pearson is a good appointment as manager and should see them back for a play-off challenge after the disappointment of just missing out the last couple of times but I think there's just too many stronger teams for them to make the top two.
Cardiff and Ipswich could be outside bets for the top six - both have come close in recent years and have a good solid core of players to build their team around but their comparative lack of spending power might see them edged out. Aston Villa, relegated last season, have at least had a clearout following Remi Garde's disastrous reign and Ross McCormack should get them plenty of goals but getting back into the Premiership looks likely to be a two-season job for them and they may have to settle for a spot just outside the play-offs this time out.
QPR and Birmingham have a slim chance at the top six as both have good young managers (Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink and Gary Rowett respectively) and are making steps back in the right direction after recent troubles but this may be a season too soon for them to challenge. Leeds have got a good manager in Garry Monk who's already attracted some promising signings to the club but as long as the pantomime off the field under Massimo Cellino continues I just can't see them getting any higher than mid-table. Likewise, Wigan did well to bounce back from relegation at the first attempt last season but while they should stay comfortably clear of the drop zone, it's difficult to see them gunning for a second successive promotion.
Brentford were actually my tip for the title last season but a series of injuries to key players and others underperforming saw them finish mid-table and I can't see anything different happening this time around. Many were expecting Blackburn to freefall following the departure of Jordan Rhodes to Middlesbrough but they managed to stay afloat with room to spare and with a few canny looking signings coming in they should manage a comfortable mid-table finish this season. Similarly, Preston, Reading and Bristol City all finished mid-table last time out and look likely to do so again with no real exciting developments or worrying signs to speak of at any of them.
Looking downwards at the teams likely to struggle, Huddersfield always seem to be down among the dead men but end up avoiding the drop. With little activity on the transfer market this summer they could end up struggling but I think there are weaker sides down there which should mean they stay up by default. It'd be tempting to mark Barnsley and Burton down as relegation fodder following their shock promotions last season but Barnsley went into the play-offs on a storming run of form and if they can carry that over into this season (big if), it should be enough for them to survive. Likewise, Nigel Clough is an experienced manager at this level and with a few canny signings coming in, Burton might actually surprise a few people by battling their way to a second season at this level.
The big irony is that this may come at the expense of one of their much larger near-neighbours Nottingham Forest who've been on the skids for quite some time now. Philippe Montainer is no less than their fifth manager in two years and with financial problems off the field, Forest may find themselves facing an unwanted trip into lower league football in 2017. Fulham only just scraped home last season and the loss of top scorer Ross McCormack to Aston Villa may well be a death blow for them while Rotherham's failure to tie down Neil Warnock, the architect of their great escape last time out, to a long term contract leaves them with a mountain to climb to stay in the second tier this time out. But then again, they can take comfort in the fact that I said that about them (and Fulham for that matter) last season and they still managed it. Like I said, it's an unpredictable league the Championship...
FINAL TABLE
1. Newcastle
2. Brighton
------------------------------------------------
3. Norwich
4. Sheff Weds
5. Wolves
6. Derby
------------------------------------------------
7. Cardiff
8. Ipswich
9. Aston Villa
10. QPR
11. Birmingham
12. Leeds
13. Wigan
14. Bristol City
15. Brentford
16. Blackburn
17. Preston
18. Reading
19. Huddersfield
20. Barnsley
21. Burton
------------------------------------------------
22. Nottingham Forest
23. Fulham
24. Rotherham
Wednesday, 3 August 2016
League One Predictions 2016-17
The third tier is always a difficult one to predict in football and this season is no different - however, with a trio of weak teams being relegated it seems that the most obvious contenders would be the losers in last season's play-offs.
Bradford are my choice for the title this time. The departure of Phil Parkinson was a big blow but the return of Stuart McCall to the hotseat after gaining some extra experience north of the border should soften the blow. With some promising summer signings and an increased transfer budget, don't bet against the Bantams joining Huddersfield and Leeds in the Championship next season.
Millwall, defeated in the play-off final by Barnsley, should be up there as well. They've kept the nucleus of their side together and finished last season strongly. With a weaker division this time around, the omens look good for them returning to the second tier after a two year absence.
Sheffield United were my pick for the title last season but they blew it pretty comprehensively and failed to even make the play-offs. Manager Nigel Adkins paid the price with former Blades player Chris Wilder being brought in from Northampton to replace him fresh from lifting the League Two title there. With seven players in and a massive seventeen released, Wilder is clearly set on streamlining the squad which makes me hesitant to tip them for automatic promotion but they should have enough for another shot at the play-offs.
Joining the Blades in the end of season lottery, expect to see Scunthorpe who finished last season like a house on fire but timed their run just too late to make the top six. With the squad that put that run together pretty much still intact, expect them to go one better this time. Similarly, Gillingham who are slowly creeping up the table season upon season might well breach the top six this time. Coventry and Walsall have both lost key players since last season but in the absence of any major competition should still be well placed for a tilt at the end of season lottery.
I can't see any of the relegated clubs challenging for promotion back to the Championship at the first attempt. MK Dons, who are at least financially sound off the field, are probably the best placed of the three but they had a wretched finish to last season and finished ten points adrift of safety. A good start is essential if they're to challenge this time out. Charlton have a pantomime going on behind the scenes with a mass fan boycott, fourteen players leaving and just five arriving. Nicky Ajose should at least bang in the goals and Russell Slade is at least a wily veteran manager who knows this division well but they're going to need a lot more than this to get a challenge going. Bolton meanwhile will just be glad to be starting this season at all after the financial chaos of the previous term. Phil Parkinson is a good lower league manager but turning things around at the Reebok Stadium is likely to be a two season job at least and consolidation is probably the watchword for this time out.
Also in the mid-table melee, Peterborough are the perennial almost-weres of the third tier and there's little to suggest anything other than another frustrating narrow miss on the play-offs is on the cards for them. Rochdale's best chance at a top six shot may have been last season when they didn't really kick on from the previous season's impressive campaign but they should still comfortably manage a top half finish. Chesterfield's decision to bring Ched Evans out of the football wilderness to provide their firepower up front could go either way but if he can get back on the goal trail then they should improve on last season's disappointing finish. Southend meanwhile did well to consolidate in mid-table last season following promotion via the play-offs but getting much higher is probably beyond them.
Northampton's promotion party was soured a bit by manager Chris Wilder's departure to Sheffield United shortly afterwards but Robert Page is a good replacement and he should be able to guide the Cobblers to mid-table consolidation this time around while Bristol Rovers' upward momentum that saw them get back to back promotions should propel them to safety with room to spare. Shrewsbury disappointed last time out but a change of manager may do them good this time and see them claw their way up to lower mid-table.
Looking at clubs in danger, Swindon underachieved last time and the departure of top scorer Nicky Ajose to Charlton could spell trouble for them. Their near neighbours Oxford did well to get promoted last year but with three key players from that team leaving, Michael Appleton will need to have his wits about him to make sure they don't get sucked into a relegation dogfight. Bury meanwhile are beset by financial problems off the field (not for the first time) and have seen several players leave over the summer. They did well to make mid-table last season but may find the going considerably tougher this time around. Port Vale meanwhile have lost manager Robert Page to Northampton and appointed an inexperienced replacement in Bruno Ribiero who has quickly brought in a raft of signings from the continent. How quickly they adapt to the physical nature of third tier football will be a key factor in whether the Valiants sink or swim this season.
Three clubs, however, look to be in serious danger. Oldham have been battling financial demons for a few years now and the departure of manager John Sheridan to League Two Notts County says a lot about their predicament. With players jumping ship and a motley crew of free agents replacing them, things are looking pretty bleak for the Latics. Fleetwood only just scraped home last season and the pre-season sacking of Steven Pressley after bringing in a dozen new players only to lose six friendlies on the bounce denotes a club in turmoil. His replacement Uwe Rosler will be hoping to repair his reputation after an unsuccessful spell at Leeds but he faces a huge uphill battle to keep the Cod Army in League One with a squad that isn't his own. Finally Wimbledon did brilliantly to power their way into the League Two play-offs and win them last season but with a small squad and even smaller budget, they'll be relying on the famous Dons fighting spirit for survival. But looking at what they're up against, even that may not be enough this time out.
FINAL TABLE
1. Bradford
2. Millwall
----------------------------------
3. Sheff Utd
4. Scunthorpe
5. Coventry
6. Gillingham
7. Walsall
----------------------------------
8. MK Dons
9. Peterborough
10. Bolton
11. Rochdale
12. Charlton
13. Chesterfield
14. Southend
15. Northampton
16. Shrewsbury
17. Bristol Rovers
18. Swindon
19. Bury
20. Oxford
----------------------------------
21. Port Vale
22. Wimbledon
23. Fleetwood
24. Oldham
Bradford are my choice for the title this time. The departure of Phil Parkinson was a big blow but the return of Stuart McCall to the hotseat after gaining some extra experience north of the border should soften the blow. With some promising summer signings and an increased transfer budget, don't bet against the Bantams joining Huddersfield and Leeds in the Championship next season.
Millwall, defeated in the play-off final by Barnsley, should be up there as well. They've kept the nucleus of their side together and finished last season strongly. With a weaker division this time around, the omens look good for them returning to the second tier after a two year absence.
Sheffield United were my pick for the title last season but they blew it pretty comprehensively and failed to even make the play-offs. Manager Nigel Adkins paid the price with former Blades player Chris Wilder being brought in from Northampton to replace him fresh from lifting the League Two title there. With seven players in and a massive seventeen released, Wilder is clearly set on streamlining the squad which makes me hesitant to tip them for automatic promotion but they should have enough for another shot at the play-offs.
Joining the Blades in the end of season lottery, expect to see Scunthorpe who finished last season like a house on fire but timed their run just too late to make the top six. With the squad that put that run together pretty much still intact, expect them to go one better this time. Similarly, Gillingham who are slowly creeping up the table season upon season might well breach the top six this time. Coventry and Walsall have both lost key players since last season but in the absence of any major competition should still be well placed for a tilt at the end of season lottery.
I can't see any of the relegated clubs challenging for promotion back to the Championship at the first attempt. MK Dons, who are at least financially sound off the field, are probably the best placed of the three but they had a wretched finish to last season and finished ten points adrift of safety. A good start is essential if they're to challenge this time out. Charlton have a pantomime going on behind the scenes with a mass fan boycott, fourteen players leaving and just five arriving. Nicky Ajose should at least bang in the goals and Russell Slade is at least a wily veteran manager who knows this division well but they're going to need a lot more than this to get a challenge going. Bolton meanwhile will just be glad to be starting this season at all after the financial chaos of the previous term. Phil Parkinson is a good lower league manager but turning things around at the Reebok Stadium is likely to be a two season job at least and consolidation is probably the watchword for this time out.
Also in the mid-table melee, Peterborough are the perennial almost-weres of the third tier and there's little to suggest anything other than another frustrating narrow miss on the play-offs is on the cards for them. Rochdale's best chance at a top six shot may have been last season when they didn't really kick on from the previous season's impressive campaign but they should still comfortably manage a top half finish. Chesterfield's decision to bring Ched Evans out of the football wilderness to provide their firepower up front could go either way but if he can get back on the goal trail then they should improve on last season's disappointing finish. Southend meanwhile did well to consolidate in mid-table last season following promotion via the play-offs but getting much higher is probably beyond them.
Northampton's promotion party was soured a bit by manager Chris Wilder's departure to Sheffield United shortly afterwards but Robert Page is a good replacement and he should be able to guide the Cobblers to mid-table consolidation this time around while Bristol Rovers' upward momentum that saw them get back to back promotions should propel them to safety with room to spare. Shrewsbury disappointed last time out but a change of manager may do them good this time and see them claw their way up to lower mid-table.
Looking at clubs in danger, Swindon underachieved last time and the departure of top scorer Nicky Ajose to Charlton could spell trouble for them. Their near neighbours Oxford did well to get promoted last year but with three key players from that team leaving, Michael Appleton will need to have his wits about him to make sure they don't get sucked into a relegation dogfight. Bury meanwhile are beset by financial problems off the field (not for the first time) and have seen several players leave over the summer. They did well to make mid-table last season but may find the going considerably tougher this time around. Port Vale meanwhile have lost manager Robert Page to Northampton and appointed an inexperienced replacement in Bruno Ribiero who has quickly brought in a raft of signings from the continent. How quickly they adapt to the physical nature of third tier football will be a key factor in whether the Valiants sink or swim this season.
Three clubs, however, look to be in serious danger. Oldham have been battling financial demons for a few years now and the departure of manager John Sheridan to League Two Notts County says a lot about their predicament. With players jumping ship and a motley crew of free agents replacing them, things are looking pretty bleak for the Latics. Fleetwood only just scraped home last season and the pre-season sacking of Steven Pressley after bringing in a dozen new players only to lose six friendlies on the bounce denotes a club in turmoil. His replacement Uwe Rosler will be hoping to repair his reputation after an unsuccessful spell at Leeds but he faces a huge uphill battle to keep the Cod Army in League One with a squad that isn't his own. Finally Wimbledon did brilliantly to power their way into the League Two play-offs and win them last season but with a small squad and even smaller budget, they'll be relying on the famous Dons fighting spirit for survival. But looking at what they're up against, even that may not be enough this time out.
FINAL TABLE
1. Bradford
2. Millwall
----------------------------------
3. Sheff Utd
4. Scunthorpe
5. Coventry
6. Gillingham
7. Walsall
----------------------------------
8. MK Dons
9. Peterborough
10. Bolton
11. Rochdale
12. Charlton
13. Chesterfield
14. Southend
15. Northampton
16. Shrewsbury
17. Bristol Rovers
18. Swindon
19. Bury
20. Oxford
----------------------------------
21. Port Vale
22. Wimbledon
23. Fleetwood
24. Oldham
Tuesday, 2 August 2016
League Two Predictions 2016-17
As is customary around this time of year, I'll be updating the blog with my predictions for the new season in the days ahead. Feel free to keep them and have a good laugh at my expense come May next year.
Anyway, starting as always with League Two. For the second season in a row, my tip for the title is Portsmouth - Pompey didn't quite fulfil their potential last season and lost in the play-offs but they've kept the nucleus of their squad together and added some useful looking new signings meaning they should be up there or thereabouts. I expect Doncaster who were unlucky to get relegated last season and have a scary amount of firepower in their squad, to run them close.
Until a few weeks ago, Plymouth would have been my tip to complete the automatic promotion places but a series of departures has left me less sure. They've got enough promising signings to make sure they should still make the play-offs but I'm going to go for the summer's big spenders Luton who now have a very promising looking squad shaping up to complete the top three.
Joining Argyle in the play-offs, Notts County may have just pulled off a masterstroke with the appointment of John Sheridan as manager and with a crop of useful looking new signings they should put last season's disappointment behind them. Cambridge have also been active in the transfer market and should build on last season's progress while I'm gonna go for Carlisle to sneak the last play-off spot - the signing of Shaun Miller from Morecambe to partner Jabo Ibehre up front has all the makings of a 30 goal strike partnership.
I would have predicted my own lot Hartlepool to make a play-off place as we had a good second half to last season and have made some decent signings over the summer coupled with a promising young manager in Craig Hignett. However, I know that if I do that then I'll almost certainly jinx us so I'm gonna plump for us to finish just outside. Others who could be outside bets for the play-offs but will probably miss out are Accrington who did fantastically well last season but will have lost the element of surprise that they had twelve months ago and Colchester whose success really depends on what sort of a start to the season they make following last season's disastrous relegation.
Looking at the other two relegated clubs, I don't see Crewe or Blackpool finishing higher than mid-table - the former have a very small squad and a few injuries could easily see them struggling at the wrong end of the table while the latter are probably still wandering around like plane crash survivors following the last few seasons. At least the appointment of Gary Bowyer as manager should give them a bit of much-needed stability but starting their journey back up the leagues is likely to be a two-season job at the very least.
Mansfield and Exeter both look set for another mid-table season - both did well enough last season to suggest they won't struggle but neither has really made any particularly eye-catching changes to their teams to boost them further up the table. Joining them there should be Conference promotees Cheltenham and Grimsby who are both likely to view this as a season for consolidation.
Looking down towards the sharp end of the table, Wycombe and Leyton Orient both fell away from the play-off pack alarmingly at the tail end of last season and will need a good start to stop the rot setting in. Both have at least got strikers who can fire goals in (Ade Akinfenwa and Jay Simpson respectively) which should save them from being too closely involved with a relegation scrap but I'll be surprised if either of them finish above mid-table. Likewise Yeovil finally hit a decent run at the tail end of the season after a disastrous first few months following relegation and should be able to breathe a bit easier this time around but are unlikely to be troubling the top half.
Barnet consolidated last season after being promoted from the Conference but they've had a very quiet summer in terms of transfers and will desperately be hoping to avoid injuries while Newport have at least boosted their faltering attack with veteran Jon Parkin fresh off a 20-goal season for Forest Green in the Conference. I still don't see them finishing outside the bottom half but they should scrape home safely again.
Which leaves three teams looking set for a season of struggle to try and avoid the dreaded drop into non-League, namely Morecambe, Stevenage and Crawley. Stevenage had a wretched season last time out with the appointment of Teddy Sheringham as manager being a colossal misfire and only just clawed their way to safety with a couple of games to spare. With no eye-catching new signings to speak of, it's difficult to see anything other than a season of struggle for the Borough this time out. Morecambe were also in the pack sat just above the drop zone last time out and the departure of top scorer Shaun Miller to Carlisle could be fatal for them especially with such a small squad. Crawley meanwhile have an inexperienced new manager in Dermot Drummy and practically a whole new squad but none of the new signings really look likely to set the division alight. Final prediction - Morecambe and Crawley to face the dreaded drop with Stevenage just sneaking home on the final day.
FINAL TABLE
1. Portsmouth
2. Doncaster
3. Luton
-------------------------------------
4. Notts County
5. Cambridge
6. Plymouth
7. Carlisle
-------------------------------------
8. Hartlepool
9. Accrington
10. Colchester
11. Mansfield
12. Cheltenham
13. Blackpool
14. Exeter
15. Grimsby
16. Leyton Orient
17. Wycombe
18. Yeovil
19. Crewe
20. Barnet
21. Newport
22. Stevenage
-------------------------------------
23. Crawley
24. Morecambe
Anyway, starting as always with League Two. For the second season in a row, my tip for the title is Portsmouth - Pompey didn't quite fulfil their potential last season and lost in the play-offs but they've kept the nucleus of their squad together and added some useful looking new signings meaning they should be up there or thereabouts. I expect Doncaster who were unlucky to get relegated last season and have a scary amount of firepower in their squad, to run them close.
Until a few weeks ago, Plymouth would have been my tip to complete the automatic promotion places but a series of departures has left me less sure. They've got enough promising signings to make sure they should still make the play-offs but I'm going to go for the summer's big spenders Luton who now have a very promising looking squad shaping up to complete the top three.
Joining Argyle in the play-offs, Notts County may have just pulled off a masterstroke with the appointment of John Sheridan as manager and with a crop of useful looking new signings they should put last season's disappointment behind them. Cambridge have also been active in the transfer market and should build on last season's progress while I'm gonna go for Carlisle to sneak the last play-off spot - the signing of Shaun Miller from Morecambe to partner Jabo Ibehre up front has all the makings of a 30 goal strike partnership.
I would have predicted my own lot Hartlepool to make a play-off place as we had a good second half to last season and have made some decent signings over the summer coupled with a promising young manager in Craig Hignett. However, I know that if I do that then I'll almost certainly jinx us so I'm gonna plump for us to finish just outside. Others who could be outside bets for the play-offs but will probably miss out are Accrington who did fantastically well last season but will have lost the element of surprise that they had twelve months ago and Colchester whose success really depends on what sort of a start to the season they make following last season's disastrous relegation.
Looking at the other two relegated clubs, I don't see Crewe or Blackpool finishing higher than mid-table - the former have a very small squad and a few injuries could easily see them struggling at the wrong end of the table while the latter are probably still wandering around like plane crash survivors following the last few seasons. At least the appointment of Gary Bowyer as manager should give them a bit of much-needed stability but starting their journey back up the leagues is likely to be a two-season job at the very least.
Mansfield and Exeter both look set for another mid-table season - both did well enough last season to suggest they won't struggle but neither has really made any particularly eye-catching changes to their teams to boost them further up the table. Joining them there should be Conference promotees Cheltenham and Grimsby who are both likely to view this as a season for consolidation.
Looking down towards the sharp end of the table, Wycombe and Leyton Orient both fell away from the play-off pack alarmingly at the tail end of last season and will need a good start to stop the rot setting in. Both have at least got strikers who can fire goals in (Ade Akinfenwa and Jay Simpson respectively) which should save them from being too closely involved with a relegation scrap but I'll be surprised if either of them finish above mid-table. Likewise Yeovil finally hit a decent run at the tail end of the season after a disastrous first few months following relegation and should be able to breathe a bit easier this time around but are unlikely to be troubling the top half.
Barnet consolidated last season after being promoted from the Conference but they've had a very quiet summer in terms of transfers and will desperately be hoping to avoid injuries while Newport have at least boosted their faltering attack with veteran Jon Parkin fresh off a 20-goal season for Forest Green in the Conference. I still don't see them finishing outside the bottom half but they should scrape home safely again.
Which leaves three teams looking set for a season of struggle to try and avoid the dreaded drop into non-League, namely Morecambe, Stevenage and Crawley. Stevenage had a wretched season last time out with the appointment of Teddy Sheringham as manager being a colossal misfire and only just clawed their way to safety with a couple of games to spare. With no eye-catching new signings to speak of, it's difficult to see anything other than a season of struggle for the Borough this time out. Morecambe were also in the pack sat just above the drop zone last time out and the departure of top scorer Shaun Miller to Carlisle could be fatal for them especially with such a small squad. Crawley meanwhile have an inexperienced new manager in Dermot Drummy and practically a whole new squad but none of the new signings really look likely to set the division alight. Final prediction - Morecambe and Crawley to face the dreaded drop with Stevenage just sneaking home on the final day.
FINAL TABLE
1. Portsmouth
2. Doncaster
3. Luton
-------------------------------------
4. Notts County
5. Cambridge
6. Plymouth
7. Carlisle
-------------------------------------
8. Hartlepool
9. Accrington
10. Colchester
11. Mansfield
12. Cheltenham
13. Blackpool
14. Exeter
15. Grimsby
16. Leyton Orient
17. Wycombe
18. Yeovil
19. Crewe
20. Barnet
21. Newport
22. Stevenage
-------------------------------------
23. Crawley
24. Morecambe
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